ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[WxEnthus]

HURAKAN, how did you add the floater to GE? I'm following along on my computer but still new to using the program. Thanks!

[KWT]

I actually see some SE winds on the last obs.... lol

Any LLC is in the western area, you were right, wind obs simply don't support a LLC in the eastern area...unless its very small.

Quite possible that neither area has that well defined low, what an interesting system...its pulling a W.Caribbean monsoonal gyre type system.

[jinftl]

As of the 2pm TWO, the NHC didn't say that develop may have already taken place...rather they said,

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY.

Just something to keep in mind if we are still in invest mode for the next 6-24 hours....doesn't mean this is d.o.a.

[KWT]

With regards to the NHC, if recon finds a bit of a complex mess they'll probably drop the chances of development back to 90 or maybe even 80%...thats what normally happens when recon can't confirm a system and the NHC have "near 100%".

[Aric Dunn]

the HWRF still on the lat frame slows and has a slight more west bend

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, how did you add the floater to GE? I'm following along on my computer but still new to using the program. Thanks!

Yes, I use the one with the lat/long lines to fix it to Google Earth in the right position and then I remove the lat/long from GE and from the image ... if you have noticed, the difference in the url between the image with and without the lat/long lines is -l

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

[KWT]

I'd have very little faith with qany model solution until we have a better idea of what area is more likely to develop.;

Not impossible both areas never develop, sometimes these dual systems just limit each other, seen it happen in the W.Caribbean before and this is a similar type of system.

[Zampanò]

NHC need to detour recon into the western system, thats where any LLC is...

Disagree - the eastern area is finally beginning to organize in earnest and I think it will eventually destroy or absorb the weaker circulation ahead of it. It has the "look". I expect a hurricane sometime tomorrow.

[Weatherfreak000]

Latest GFDL clear recurve. Expect HWRF to follow suit. Still remarkable agreement on that.

[Aric Dunn]

I'd have very little faith with qany model solution until we have a better idea of what area is more likely to develop.;

Not impossible both areas never develop, sometimes these dual systems just limit each other, seen it happen in the W.Caribbean before and this is a similar type of system.

yep.

[cycloneye]

12z HWRF

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[KWT]

It has that look because the MLC is strong, but the surface is not looking good and seems to be favouring the western system...and that is the KEY to most systems, the surface usually rules over the mid levels.

[Dave]

Delay in HDOBS...again...

[KWT]

Latest GFDL clear recurve. Expect HWRF to follow suit. Still remarkable agreement on that.

Yep likely, but I'd be VERY careful on assuming that will happen, because nothing to stop 91L from staying quite weak, in which case GFDL will bust and be too far north.

As you all know I've been saying a recurve through the islands is my favoured solution but tonight I'm far less certain...

Remember Earl...that was at one point forecasted to turn NNE at 60W...it made it almost to the east coast.

[JTE50]

It has that look because the MLC is strong, but the surface is not looking good and seems to be favouring the western system...and that is the KEY to most systems, the surface usually rules over the mid levels.

The plane is definitely in the right area.

[KWT]

Delay in the reporting of the obs, looks like its going to be quite jumpy all day, ah well as long as the key info goes to the NHC...

Obs upto when they stopped still strongly supporting the western system, too far west to know how well defined the eastern section is.

[artist]

Latest CMC proves the point. NOTHING HAS CHANGED. No matter how this plays out the models see a substantial weakness, substantial enough to force 91L to the north regardless of whether the west area wins, or whether it travels thru the Caribbean. It really doesn't matter, the only other solution is a slam into Central America.

no matter how close 91L gets to SFL, close just doesn't cut it. The models are still in remarkable agreement this thing is destined to go swimming. I am still concerned for the poor islands....all this bickering over the "so called trend change" neglects the thought the islands are about to get slammed.

weatherfreak, you have been here a long time. You know this far out and when trends start happening, that is a sign, are not 100% certain of the steering patterns, as changes are taking place, whether slowing of highs, etc. I am surprised at your persistance. You should well know how things change within a matter of days. We are still 6 days out and the accuracy 6 days out is not that great. Even 5 leaves a lot to be desired. Do you remember Charley just a few short years ago, even the NHC kept stating it was going to go into the Tampa Bay area, almost up to landfall. He came in south of there, into Port Charlotte, just at 100 miles further south than predicted, even within a couple of hours of landfall.

some interesting facts -

After emerging from Cuba near Menelao Mora, Hurricane Charley accelerated to the north-northeast, towards the southwest coast of Florida, in response to the approach of an unseasonal mid-tropospheric trough

and -

The rapid strengthening of Charley in the eastern Gulf of Mexico caught many by surprise. Around five hours before its Florida landfall, Charley was a strong Category 2 hurricane predicted to strengthen its strongest winds to 115 mph (185 km/h) upon its landfall in the Tampa-Saint Petersburg area.[18] About two hours before landfall, the National Hurricane Center issued a special advisory, notifying the public that Charley had become a 145 mph (230 km/h) Category 4 hurricane, with a predicted landfall location in the Port Charlotte area.[19] As a result of this change in forecast, numerous people in the Charlotte County area were unprepared for the hurricane, despite the fact that the new track prediction was well within the previous forecast's margin of error.

Personally, it is just still too far out to know for certain where it will go, if indeed, it becomes a cane, as well as , model initialization, at this point, without any certain center of circulation, means the models will be off, more than likely.

[WxEnthus]

HURAKAN, how did you add the floater to GE? I'm following along on my computer but still new to using the program. Thanks!

Yes, I use the one with the lat/long lines to fix it to Google Earth in the right position and then I remove the lat/long from GE and from the image ... if you have noticed, the difference in the url between the image with and without the lat/long lines is -l

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Thanks for the tip, it's much appreciated and I get what you're saying about the url but I'm not sure how about the steps to actually get the link/images entered into GE. Guess I need beginner's help here.

[KWT]

initialization....

I think thats the key reason why any confidence I did have in the solution the models had with regards to recurving has gone today.

They may not even be starting with the correct area and could be as much as 4-5 degrees too far east if the western area pulls a surprise...

In which case to have real confidence is a big issue.

You can be confident of the pattern which DOES support recurving systems, especially strong ones, but you can't have confidence when it comes to the formative stages of systems, especially as they have a habit of shifting westwards with time.

[HURAKAN]

HURAKAN, how did you add the floater to GE? I'm following along on my computer but still new to using the program. Thanks!

Yes, I use the one with the lat/long lines to fix it to Google Earth in the right position and then I remove the lat/long from GE and from the image ... if you have noticed, the difference in the url between the image with and without the lat/long lines is -l

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Thanks for the tip, it's much appreciated and I get what you're saying about the url but I'm not sure how about the steps to actually get the link/images entered into GE. Guess I need beginner's help here.

In GE, in the top you have something called "Add Image Overlay" and there is where you add the url