ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Sanibel]

Curvature, banding, circulation - and now, a small convection burst. And, if I'm not mistaken, the poleward center tends to dominate.

[canes04]

14N/53W looks good to me. New convection firing around the center. This low will become the dominate low tonight. I still believe we have Emily out there.

[Zampanò]

It looks to me like the western circulation is starting to be drawn into the eastern system.

[KWT]

Low-level winds across the disturbance are now about 30 kts from the east, thus the disruption today. However low level winds from the Antilles westward across the eastern Caribbean are only 10 to 15 kts. This would indicate significant convergence as the disturbance reaches the islands tomorrow. That's when consolidation and development should occur. .

Very good post, I did think the flow was quite strong when I had a quick look at the loop earlier this morning.

As per what the western area has done recently, the eastern area should burst as it gets close.

Track overall of at least the eastern area looks to be 275-280.

Whatever happens, the two areas should merge sooner then later IMO...once it does finally focus it'll probably strengthen at a decent clip.

[ozonepete]

Vbhoutex, I'm with you. I have never seen anything like this. It really is anyone's guess what will happen. Imho they will never merge, but it's really hard to say which will survive.

[Countrygirl911]

is there a chance that it could get into the GOM with the models continuing to trend a little west on each run

[ozonepete]

...though if I had a gun to my head I'd go with the eastern one - there IS banding now with convection firing at the center. But don't like all of those outflow boundaries (arc clouds) which suggest dry air problems.

[KWT]

Curvature, banding, circulation - and now, a small convection burst. And, if I'm not mistaken, the poleward center tends to dominate.

All that is to do with the MLC though which has been very strong, maybe weakening a touch recently but thats because of Dmin.

Constant outflow boundaries firing out of the eastern side as well fwiw.

It is quite interesting to see how this plays out, if Wxman57 said he thinks there is a circulation further east, then thats good enough for me.

[vbhoutex]

is there a chance that it could get into the GOM with the models continuing to trend a little west on each run

It is really too far out to make a good guess on that. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? Very difficult to say, but at this point I would lean to no because of the very strong and large heat ridge all over the South. If it does take a more Western track through the Caribbean without feeling the weakness to its' North it is more likely that it will be a Yucatan, and "Mainland Mexico" storm. But I am not making a prediction of that happening because it is simply too far out to tell and to know for sure what the steering currents will be that far down the road.

['CaneFreak]

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This is my personal opinion. This is what I think is going to happen and it may or may not be right but I think it has sound scientific reasoning.

IF the very weak mid level circulation does indeed die on the western batch of convection, then I would think that the tremendous amount of latent heat release from all of that convection in front of this easterly wave would give this eastern wave an extra boost from a dynamical point of view and this could be what sets off the steady/rapid strengthening of the easternmost wave through an increase in latent heat flux. This would allow for increased inflow, rapid convective development, and a lowering of the pressure near the center.

[sphelps8681]

is there a chance that it could get into the GOM with the models continuing to trend a little west on each run

It is really too far out to make a good guess on that. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? Very difficult to say, but at this point I would lean to no because of the very strong and large heat ridge all over the South. If it does take a more Western track through the Caribbean without feeling the weakness to its' North it is more likely that it will be a Yucatan, and "Mainland Mexico" storm. But I am not making a prediction of that happening because it is simply too far out to tell and to know for sure what the steering currents will be that far down the road.

Could you also say that it could possible take a Rita like track.

[Gustywind]

Strong showers and isolated tstorms with some lightnings are falling nicely in my locality since one hour. Hey HUC, what's the weather like in Basse-Terre have you experienced these strong bursts of convection this afternoon?
Let's wait and see closely the situation islanders. Be aware. Stay tuned.

[gatorcane]

For those of you trying to follow this "double circulation" talk, here is a good link for you:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

In this link, you will see a circulation on the SE part of the Western blob. On the eastern blob, you can see a good mid-level circulation (MLC). The whole blob looks like it is spiraling...but that circulation is more in the mid-levels of the atmosphere not near the surface, though I think it will work its way to the surface over time.

[shaggy]

Having a continued problem with multiple centers has really delayed this storms development which was good news for the islands. It also makes me look at any model with a big grain of salt until we can get a difinitive center and some G-IV data into the runs.

[KWT]

Its a complex situation thats for sure!

Normally the LLC takes over, of course can't deny there maybe a LLC with the eastern blob, without recon we haven't really got a good idea.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Strong showers and isolated tstorms with some lightnings are falling nicely in my locality since one hour. Hey HUC, what's the weather like in Basse-Terre have you experienced these strong bursts of convection this afternoon?
Let's wait and see closely the situation islanders. Be aware. Stay tuned.

Here is the link for the radar:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

[gatorcane]

is there a chance that it could get into the GOM with the models continuing to trend a little west on each run

It is really too far out to make a good guess on that. Is it possible? Yes. Is it probable? Very difficult to say, but at this point I would lean to no because of the very strong and large heat ridge all over the South. If it does take a more Western track through the Caribbean without feeling the weakness to its' North it is more likely that it will be a Yucatan, and "Mainland Mexico" storm. But I am not making a prediction of that happening because it is simply too far out to tell and to know for sure what the steering currents will be that far down the road.

Could you also say that it could possible take a Rita like track.

The "heat ridge" vbhoutex is speaking of is seen here at 144 hours from now on 12Z GFS. This image belows shows the 500MB flow in the atmosphere, what typically steers a hurricane. You can see a spiral centered on the NE corner of Texas with clockwise windflow extending into the GOM where the "barbs" are pointing WSW.

That would block anything from impacting the NW GOM as long as that "heat ridge" stays there. We also note the dark area in the SE Bahamas which is future Emily. Note that there is another ridge off to the NE of the system as you can see the barbs spiraling around a center there. Between this ridge and the "heat ridge" is what we call a "break" in the ridge or a "weakness" that has developed. That is where the GFS sends this system through.

[Aric Dunn]

Strong showers and isolated tstorms with some lightnings are falling nicely in my locality since one hour. Hey HUC, what's the weather like in Basse-Terre have you experienced these strong bursts of convection this afternoon?
Let's wait and see closely the situation islanders. Be aware. Stay tuned.

Here is the link for the radar:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC2.html

better link ..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

[Rgv20]

is there a chance that it could get into the GOM with the models continuing to trend a little west on each run

Not likely I think this as east coast threat with possibly Florida in the mix. But anyways it is still to early to be certain where 91l is going to go just remember with 90l/Don it was suppose to go to the Bahamas and ended up south of Cuba, a lot can and will change this coming days.

[Nimbus]

I thought the problem looked more like the environment was a little dry. Its just a big tumbleweed rolling west until a CDO develops to spin things up.