ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

could be.. will find out

[ozonepete]

they need to move the floater at the NHC or maybe get the western blob its own floater....

That is really funny.

[cycloneye]

they need to move the floater at the NHC or maybe get the western blob its own floater....

That is really funny.

Or have 92L.

[gatorcane]

Here is a good site for following the GFS run real-time. We are now at hour 3 of the 18Z:

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appc ... mageSize=M

[gatorcane]

they need to move the floater at the NHC or maybe get the western blob its own floater....

That is really funny.

Or have 92L.

How about 91.5L?

[KWT]

Its probably why the 00z GFS shifted much further east and since then the GFS has shifted westwards again.

it normally suggests the model has overdone the vort of mid/upper level features...so yeah it may cause the model to somewhat overdo a trough.

['CaneFreak]

I think this may be happening already...check out the western edge of the convection with the easternmost wave...look at the increase in cloudiness on that west side...hmmm....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

This is my personal opinion. This is what I think is going to happen and it may or may not be right but I think it has sound scientific reasoning.

IF the very weak mid level circulation does indeed die on the western batch of convection, then I would think that the tremendous amount of latent heat release from all of that convection in front of this easterly wave would give this eastern wave an extra boost from a dynamical point of view and this could be what sets off the steady/rapid strengthening of the easternmost wave through an increase in latent heat flux. This would allow for increased inflow, rapid convective development, and a lowering of the pressure near the center.

[SouthDadeFish]

After looking at RGB loops, seems that the possible LLC in the SE side of the western blob is quickly getting pulled towards the MLC to the east. I think the western blob of convection will fade as the wave axis outruns 91L. In my opinion the MLC to the east is the one to watch as it may already be starting to develop (or stealing) its own LLC. Btw this is not a professional forecast

[Aric Dunn]

That is really funny.

Or have 92L.

How about 91.5L?

then would it be emily 2.0 ? lol

[ROCK]

both are hauling west at good clip....caught in the low level flow....the eastern blob barfed a huge outflow boundary earlier....not good for development..the western one seems to want to consolidate further south and west. That is where the low level convergance is right now...ugh...what a nightmare for the RECON folks and me....

[HURAKAN]

My eyes are tired of looking at this system almost all day. Will take a shower, check back at 8 pm and then go to sleep!

[HurricaneBrain]

Looks like convection is merging.

[Aric Dunn]

After looking at RGB loops, seems that the possible LLC in the SE side of the western blob is quickly getting pulled towards the MLC to the east. I think the western blob of convection will fade as the wave axis outruns 91L. In my opinion the MLC to the east is the one to watch as it may already be starting to develop (or stealing) its own LLC. Btw this is not a professional forecast

well the dynamics would point towards it all coming together around the greatest vorticity and that right now is with the LLC to the west. that is just slowly migrating north due to rotational dynamics... when it gets about 13.5 to 14 n is when things will really take off. so sometime tonight is a good bet.

[KWT]

After looking at RGB loops, seems that the possible LLC in the SE side of the western blob is quickly getting pulled towards the MLC to the east. I think the western blob of convection will fade as the wave axis outruns 91L. In my opinion the MLC to the east is the one to watch as it may already be starting to develop (or stealing) its own LLC. Btw this is not a professional forecast

Yeah I'm thinking thats probably my best idea right now. i suspect the reason why the convergence is good with that region further west is its hitting the area of slower steering patterns. I think once the MLC gets there and the LLC pulls close to that MLC we'll start to see better development. It takes a while, probably will need the help of Dmax to get things off the ground.

[Extratropical94]

then would it be emily 2.0 ? lol

Maybe Emilin and Frankly?

[Aric Dunn]

crazy... the 18z run has the ridge over the MS valley extending farther east almost off the east coast... by a lot thats got to change things this run..

18z


12z

[SouthDadeFish]

After looking at RGB loops, seems that the possible LLC in the SE side of the western blob is quickly getting pulled towards the MLC to the east. I think the western blob of convection will fade as the wave axis outruns 91L. In my opinion the MLC to the east is the one to watch as it may already be starting to develop (or stealing) its own LLC. Btw this is not a professional forecast

well the dynamics would point towards it all coming together around the greatest vorticity and that right now is with the LLC to the west. that is just slowly migrating north due to rotational dynamics... when it gets about 13.5 to 14 n is when things will really take off. so sometime tonight is a good bet.

Well 21Z CIMSS 850mb vorticity already shows the eastern blob having greater vorticity. Although it is elongated the eastern portion is getting stronger while the western portion weakened when compared to the last analysis. I also agree that tonight they will merge and we will see development. In my opinion there is a very good chance recon tomorrow morning will find TD 5/Emily. At that point I expect steady intensification, although it is interesting to note latest shear analysis seemed to drop the anticyclone over 91L, and increased current shear affecting the system.

[AJC3]

Just thought I'd throw this out there with respect to the dual or split structure of the vort centers. The 30/00Z ECM run showed this taking place. The morning before last, here's what I made of it...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...

<snip>

WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE TO THE SE AS THE MID ATLC DISTURBANCE/T-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SERN BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. STRENGTH/POSITION OF WRN ATLC RIDGE WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SYSTEM AND JUST HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO FL. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM TURNING NORTH NEAR/EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE ECM ACTUALLY SPLITS THE H85 VORT ENERGY. IT RUNS THE LEAD PIECE WNW THROUGH THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES...DAMPENING IT OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE FLORIDA WHILE TAKING A WEAKER TRAILING PIECE AND TURNING IT NWD WELL EAST OF FL.

Granted, the weaker piece may actually be the lead one (although it's 30/00Z run wasn't terribly strong with either). Occasionally, an ECM outlier TC solution will show something which looks rather odd...for example, back in 2008, about a week and change out, it showed a solution where the low that would become Fay started to recurve across south central Florida, but stalled along the east coast near Juipter, moved due north up the east coast to Saint Augustine, then moved due westward, grinding the Florida Panhandle in the process. Later runs didn't show this as much, and it was ironic that this solution came very close to fruition.

[Aric Dunn]

After looking at RGB loops, seems that the possible LLC in the SE side of the western blob is quickly getting pulled towards the MLC to the east. I think the western blob of convection will fade as the wave axis outruns 91L. In my opinion the MLC to the east is the one to watch as it may already be starting to develop (or stealing) its own LLC. Btw this is not a professional forecast

well the dynamics would point towards it all coming together around the greatest vorticity and that right now is with the LLC to the west. that is just slowly migrating north due to rotational dynamics... when it gets about 13.5 to 14 n is when things will really take off. so sometime tonight is a good bet.

Well 21Z CIMSS 850mb vorticity already shows the eastern blob having greater vorticity. Although it is elongated the eastern portion is getting stronger while the western portion weakened when compared to the last analysis. I also agree that tonight they will merge and we will see development. In my opinion there is a very good chance recon tomorrow morning will find TD 5/Emily. At that point I expect steady intensification, although it is interesting to note latest shear analysis seemed to drop the anticyclone over 91L, and increased current shear affecting the system.

well that is at 850 MB not at the surface.

[maxx9512]

Is the distance between these two areas shrinking or the cloud fields expanding? Or is east outrunning the west as there was a larger gap between them? Looking at this all afternoon I still don't know which one will be future Emily, but I guess nor does the NHC. I don't envy them.