ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Also its way slower !!

[Bobo2000]

The west low might absorb the east?

[Aric Dunn]

Just thought I'd throw this out there with respect to the dual or split structure of the vort centers. The 30/00Z ECM run showed this taking place. The morning before last, here's what I made of it...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
330 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...

<snip>

WILL ALSO BE KEEPING AN EYE TO THE SE AS THE MID ATLC DISTURBANCE/T-WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE GREATER ANTILLES AND SERN BAHAMAS LATE NEXT WEEK. STRENGTH/POSITION OF WRN ATLC RIDGE WILL DETERMINE EVENTUAL TRACK OF SYSTEM AND JUST HOW CLOSE IT GETS TO FL. THE GFS IS CONSISTENT IN SHOWING A STRONGER SYSTEM TURNING NORTH NEAR/EAST OF THE BAHAMAS WHILE THE ECM ACTUALLY SPLITS THE H85 VORT ENERGY. IT RUNS THE LEAD PIECE WNW THROUGH THE NRN CARIBBEAN AND GREATER ANTILLES...DAMPENING IT OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE FLORIDA WHILE TAKING A WEAKER TRAILING PIECE AND TURNING IT NWD WELL EAST OF FL.

Granted, the weaker piece may actually be the lead one (although it's 30/00Z run wasn't terribly strong with either). Occasionally, an ECM outlier TC solution will show something which looks rather odd...for example, back in 2008, about a week and change out, it showed a solution where the low that would become Fay started to recurve across south central Florida, but stalled along the east coast near Juipter, moved due north up the east coast to Saint Augustine, then moved due westward, grinding the Florida Panhandle in the process. Later runs didn't show this as much, and it was ironic that this solution came very close to fruition.

Yeah I noticed those early runs as well. so far the models are trending towards a weaker trough and the ridge extending farther west. closer the early runs of the ECM

[Aric Dunn]

Is the distance between these two areas shrinking or the cloud fields expanding? Or is east outrunning the west as there was a larger gap between them? Looking at this all afternoon I still don't know which one will be future Emily, but I guess nor does the NHC. I don't envy them.

yes the west low has basically stalled as the flow over the eastern carrib drops significantly. the two areas will eventually come together.

[stormreader]

Love this WV Image (he-he-he). Shows what would appear to be the utter lack of development and what at first glance would appear to be an unpromising area for development. But appearances can be deceiving, and I would look for a bursting area of convection right near the center of the eastern area (where the NHC has its sights set) sometime later tonight.

[HurricaneBrain]

This is a potentially HUGE system.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS by 48 hours not too much change from 12z..

[Evil Jeremy]

The west low might absorb the east?

Looks like it will be the other way IMO. East blob looks to be strengthening and West Blob is weakening. At the very least, west blob has lost its giant convection field, and blob east has clear rotation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

[SouthDadeFish]

in the special 5pm TWO the NHC mentioned a recon flight tomorrow morning. Is that the 6Z or the 12Z one?

[SouthDadeFish]

D min hasn't been very kind to 91L.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFS by 48 hours not too much change from 12z..

More southwest:

12z 54 hours out: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_054m.gif
18z 48 hours out: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_048m.gif

[stormreader]

The west low might absorb the east?

Looks like it will be the other way IMO. East blob looks to be strengthening and West Blob is weakening. At the very least, west blob has lost its giant convection field, and blob east has clear rotation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

Yep. I'd forget about that west area.

[cycloneye]

in the special 5pm TWO the NHC mentioned a recon flight tomorrow morning. Is that the 6Z or the 12Z one?

Code: Select all

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 71
       A. 01/0600Z,1200Z
       B. AFXXX 0305A CYCLONE
       C. 01/0400Z
       D. 15.2N 58.1W
       E. 01/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
       F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
       B. POSSIBLE NOAA G-IV MISSION FOR 02/0000Z.
    3. REMARKS:
       A. IF SYSTEM DOES NOT DEVELOP, FLIGHT THREE
          WILL BECOME A 01/1200Z INVEST MISSION.




12z

[Aric Dunn]

The west low might absorb the east?

Looks like it will be the other way IMO. East blob looks to be strengthening and West Blob is weakening. At the very least, west blob has lost its giant convection field, and blob east has clear rotation:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html

your forgetting the east area has to surface reflection.. the low to the west is just starting to tuck under the developing convection the north and more building to the west. they will come together over the next few hours. and by morning we should be looking at a much better organized system ... like at TD or storm

[Aric Dunn]

very slightly..

[KWT]

That ridge is abit stronger on the 18z run, of course at this stage doesn't mean alot but lets see whether that trend continues later in the run.

[SouthDadeFish]

Oh I should have read the bottom line lol. Thanks

[KWT]

Hopefully this one doesn't have the same level of problems as the last recon mission had.

[ozonepete]

The eastern blob's MLC seems like it may be working down to the surface now. It still has, and has always had, the better structure with some banding (western has none) and more outflow. It also has a larger circulation envelope and is where the models were progging something to be. That's probably why the NHC is concentrating on that area. Sure hope that RECON is getting the data even though it can't transmit it at this time. As long as they got it and are still getting it, because this is a truly fascinating case of cyclogenesis and could be used for some real insights.

[SouthDadeFish]

Seems like Aric and I have very similar thoughts to the development of this storm. Let's see if we're right