ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Its starting to show some signs of coming together. still has to catch a little but

[floridasun78]

storm2k home page drop 91l

[Ivanhater]

we are about to see a huge shift...

The 00z Globals will be initialized with the western blob too correct?

[Aric Dunn]

31/2345 UTC 14.3N 53.8W T1.5/1.5 91L -- Atlantic

bam models initialized at the other location..

Ha so they are all just all over the place at the moment from the looks of things!

Don't see why they would upgrade it now, unless there is a ship report or something thats pretty conclusive on the issue...

if they are an indication of whats goig to happen the rest of the models with the new position.. then its going to be interesting

[JPmia]

that 18z GFS run is so close that would cause quite a bit of concern here.. thankfully or not my guess is this will change i suspect considering the initialization point will shift a little west to where the 00z bamms begin

[Ivanhater]

Surprised nobody noticed the CMC shifted left and close to the Latest GFS.

I posted the 12z CMC when it came out...right at S.Florida's doorstep

[Dean4Storms]

Surprised nobody noticed the CMC shifted left and close to the Latest GFS.

The 12Z CMC was covered earlier today.

[GCANE]

I wouldn't be suprised if this thing ends up in the GOM.

[Vortex]

Interesting too note that the BAMD turns due west...One would think that would be the case possibly with a shallow system but not a deep one given the general weakness...Looking forward to the 00z Global model suite....

[cycloneye]

This is from the ATCF site. Still 91L has not been renumbered. It has to be where you see the yellow arrow.

07/27/2011 07:17p.m. 3,901 invest_RENUMBER_al902011_al042011.ren
91L
06/28/2011 11:16p.m. 1,426 invest_RENUMBER_al952011_al012011.ren


ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[gatorcane]

Surprised nobody noticed the CMC shifted left and close to the Latest GFS.

The 12Z CMC was covered earlier today.

Thought it was the 00z. Guess not even though the graphic indicates 00z

[Aric Dunn]

I would imagine the globals would also initialize at the more west locatiuon..

[AdamFirst]

What is causing the storm to take the west-northwest motion passing through then going north of the islands? Steering currents?

[ROCK]

I wouldn't be suprised if this thing ends up in the GOM.

I am leaning that way with a south FL bounce ala Katrina......I was never sold on recurve from the beggining.

[SFLcane]

we are about to see a huge shift...

Yea looks out to sea per those 00z bams.

[TheDreamTraveler]

It should also be noted that the more chance the storm has of crossing over Hispaniola the higher chance it'll be in a much more weakened state, thus having less feel with the steering patterns to take it more north. Since Hispaniola is a very mountainous island etc.

[Evil Jeremy]

we are about to see a huge shift...

Yea looks out to sea per those 00z bams.

Don't trust the BAMs. They are some of the worst.

With the models starting with Blob West, we should see a decent west shift in the models now.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just a thought but has anyone taken into account what is going on to the north of Central America in the Western Caribbean and what implications that area may have on the future track of 91L? Sure looks like something is trying to get going down there near Belize, Honduras, and Nicarauga.

SFT

[gatorcane]

It's interesting that the deep BAMM bends to the west but the medium and shallow BAMMs turn it north.

Not sure I have seen that before.

[ROCK]

that would be a mega shift if globals move to the western area.....something we havent seen since well Ike....and its SW journey to Cuba....