WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[ManilaTC]

KMA use 10 minute and CMA 2 minute winds, yes. CMA quite daring with that forecast, way more bold than even the JTWC is forecasting.

Any conversion factor for 2minute to 10 minute winds?

[Typhoon Hunter]

Classic EWRC image on latest vis satellite:



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Storming - I think the wind field may well expand and we can expect a larger eye (experts correct me if I'm wrong.)

[StormingB81]

Thank you..I tried looking it up and I was confused didnt know it it meant restrengthen or not..

[dexterlabio]

Thanks Chacor for clearing up those wind averages.

Dexter it would certain appear as if an EWRC is underway. Could this lead to an enlargening of the wind field and expansion in size. That NRL vis pic you posted kind of reminds me of Sepat back in2007.

Snoop - no worries, it's first time I've gone through all agencies myself for Muifa so thought I'd just share it here for those scratching their eyes and waking up here in Wpac!

Yes, Sepat. It could have been successful if it did not make landfall shortly and decayed. With Muifa, it still has some days to complete the cycle and could also redevelop its circulation completely. We could see a wider and more intense eye if that pans out.

[Chacor]

KMA use 10 minute and CMA 2 minute winds, yes. CMA quite daring with that forecast, way more bold than even the JTWC is forecasting.

Any conversion factor for 2minute to 10 minute winds?

Should be fairly similar for 1-minute to 10-minute, but I've never found anything definitive on 2-min to 10-min.

[ManilaTC]

Thanks Chacor for clearing up those wind averages.

Dexter it would certain appear as if an EWRC is underway. Could this lead to an enlargening of the wind field and expansion in size. That NRL vis pic you posted kind of reminds me of Sepat back in2007.

Snoop - no worries, it's first time I've gone through all agencies myself for Muifa so thought I'd just share it here for those scratching their eyes and waking up here in Wpac!

Yes, Sepat. It could have been successful if it did not make landfall shortly and decayed. With Muifa, it still has some days to complete the cycle and could also redevelop its circulation completely. We could see a wider and more intense eye if that pans out.

Not unless another EWRC FAIL occurs hahaha... another lucky break for Okinawa then... I know you guys are wishing for that.

[StormingB81]

On the NRL site looks like the eyes is comming back..

[dexterlabio]

^Yea the eye is becoming clear again.


Not sure though, if it's not some dry air over the northern portion then probably an eyewall replacement is underway...or maybe some of its convection decaying, it should find time to redevelop itself if it still would want to gain strength imo...

[dexterlabio]

Personally, I don't find EWRC cool for storms because most of the time they actually fail. They often contribute to weakening of the system. Notable exception for me would be Katrina where its eye along with its circulation became incredibly large and intense. I also remember STY Durian in 2006 undergoing EWRC within a short time then successfully finished the cycle before landfall in Bicol region.

[Typhoon Hunter]

Dexter that IR image you posted is about 11 hours old. On lastest MTSAT visible imagery you can clearly see the old pinhole eye is still there surrounded by a dry moat and then the outer eyewall. It would make great radar imagery right now for sure!

[StormingB81]

James..what is your opinion..you think it will strengthen back up or weaken?

[ManilaTC]

EWRC!

Visible


AMSR-E Microwave

[ManilaTC]

Here is a cool image

[Infdidoll]

Noted on other thread, but will post here, too: http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/tcir.html

I need to get to the store and by now, now that this is out there, it's going to be insane.

[StormingB81]

so can we expect reintesification now?

[Typhoon Hunter]

James..what is your opinion..you think it will strengthen back up or weaken?

Storming it's a tricky one.

If shear stays away like JTWC have said they expect it to and it can go through this EWRC it could well strengthen a bit more. ECMWF certainly forecasts a very good environment near Okinawa. However we did all get our fingers burnt by Maon which should have become a monster but epicly failed but I'd be surprised to see that happen again so soon!

Currently the old pinhole eye and eyewall are hanging on there but once that's complete I guess it could resemble the look of Nabi back in 2005 (not track or necessarily that intensity though) - http://www.geoffmackley.com/archive/nabiw16.html

[dexterlabio]

Oh, didn't notice it was old. Well so it means that the cycle was about to begin even hours ago.

About reintesification, I would wait for some time to see. If it could finish the cycle completely and display a much stronger appearance, then that's it.

[dexterlabio]

Noted on other thread, but will post here, too: http://weather.kadenaforcesupport.com/update/tcir.html

I need to get to the store and by now, now that this is out there, it's going to be insane.

85kts with 125kt wind gusts is more than nasty. I hope everyone will stay fine in there.

[euro6208]

that pinhole eye is still there. certainly this is a very strong typhoon and still forecast to strengthen as it nears okinawa. what a monster!

very large muifa!!!

[RobWESTPACWX]

85-125 max forecast in Kadena, Yikes. Going to be a rough one.

The image below really does show a decent eye as well. JT noted in there last prog reasoning it is under the cloud cover there.