ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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#2241 Postby stormreader » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:20 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:if it survives hispanola this run ... with all the increased ridging .. it will likely end up over florida..

Well if it ends up over Fl (as it may well do) then that sort of puts the E GOM in play. Especially S Fl. Simply a guess by me right now. Models aren't that far from Fl as it is. They are tending to shift west and south (in the earlier stages). Wouldn't be surprised if you had something in the vicinity Everglades-Keys area and then the more pronounced turn north into the E GOM toward the panhandle. So my point is that if Fl is in play, then the GOM must have some percentage also. Just an amateur's opinion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2242 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:21 pm

Thank you Ivanhater.
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Re: Re:

#2243 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:22 pm

stormreader wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:if it survives hispanola this run ... with all the increased ridging .. it will likely end up over florida..

Well if it ends up over Fl (as it may well do) then that sort of puts the E GOM in play. Especially S Fl. Simply a guess by me right now. Models aren't that far from Fl as it is. They are tending to shift west and south (in the earlier stages). Wouldn't be surprised if you had something in the vicinity Everglades-Keys area and then the more pronounced turn north into the E GOM toward the panhandle. So my point is that if Fl is in play, then the GOM must have some percentage also. Just an amateur's opinion.


Unless it goes up the spine of Florida.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2244 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:23 pm

120 hours.. heading towards.. SE florida.. ridge still to its north..

00z

Image

18z

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2245 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:23 pm

132 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2246 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:24 pm

Well I live in MIA but have a house in Key Largo, if I have to choose where I choose MIA. :cry:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2247 Postby SFLcane » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:24 pm

Approaching SFL ...132hrs

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#2248 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:24 pm

This run is going to hit FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2249 Postby ozonepete » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:25 pm

Swimdude wrote:
ozonepete wrote:
Swimdude wrote:Anyone else watching the feature at 14.8N / 54.8W?


That's what we're all watching.


Even after watching the tropics for 10 years... I still have to make sure I'm on the same page as everyone else sometimes! :D


Know what you mean. :)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2250 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:25 pm

144 hours

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2251 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:26 pm



Well that's right on my front door!

SFT
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#2252 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:27 pm

Welp, there's the run that everyone has seen coming the past 12-18 hours.
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#2253 Postby StarmanHDB » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:27 pm

Latest information from the nearest buoy station to what may be a possible center....

Station 41101
Meteo France
Location: 14.600N 56.201W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 1 Aug 2011 04:00:00 UTC

Winds: ENE (60°) at 8.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 8 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.83 in and falling
Air Temperature: 80.8 F
Dew Point: 75.9 F
Water Temperature: 82.6 F
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2254 Postby Bocadude85 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:28 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:


Well that's right on my front door!

SFT



Yea right on my front door also.. glad its just one run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2255 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:29 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:


Well that's right on my front door!

SFT


yep, same here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2256 Postby Ivanhater » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:29 pm

156 hours...this run would have tropical storm conditions all up the East coast of Florida

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#2257 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:30 pm

Still too early to get excited...That is at 144 hours (6 days) out. A lot can change and there are many variables to consider (land interaction, etc.). The trend has been somewhat concerning though. I'd feel much better if this was early September and not early August. I'd think the chances of a decent trough to kick this thing away would be much better.

SFT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2258 Postby ozonepete » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:30 pm

Beginning to think some more official warnings for the islands might be prudent now. Convection blowing up pretty fast.
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#2259 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:31 pm

thats less that 50 miles from the coast.. if hurricane there would be hurricane condtions
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#2260 Postby TwisterFanatic » Sun Jul 31, 2011 11:31 pm

It just doesn't want to make landfall in FL, huh? :lol:
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