ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Word is...00z Euro showing the disturbance over Jamaica at 84 hours...this should be interesting,
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Michael
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Ivanhater wrote:Word is...00z Euro showing the disturbance over Jamaica at 84 hours...this should be interesting,
you and your secret sources....

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif
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- TwisterFanatic
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
the 850MB vorticity is still kind of elongated.

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- Ivanhater
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ROCK wrote:Ivanhater wrote:Word is...00z Euro showing the disturbance over Jamaica at 84 hours...this should be interesting,
you and your secret sources....here is the 72hr....not much to look at....weak
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP072.gif
00z Euro does not do much with this system this run...confusion continues.
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Michael
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
[quote="TwisterFanatic"]the 850MB vorticity is still kind of elongated.
the EURO might be on to something in the model thread.....
the EURO might be on to something in the model thread.....

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- SeminoleWind
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120hrs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
01/0545 UTC 14.4N 55.6W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic
It actually "looks" better tonight.
It actually "looks" better tonight.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
IMO I think the southern side of the system is having trouble getting stacked because it appears that the westerlies are screaming through the ITCZ. Once it gets further away from that I think it will take stack all its quadrants and take off. Outflow to the NW looks decent but below it there just isn't a channel yet.
SFT
SFT
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
TwisterFanatic wrote:the 850MB vorticity is still kind of elongated.
It's much better than before. I think 6 hours ago, there were still two competing vorticies (east one was stronger though). Now its consolidating.
dwsqos2 wrote:01/0545 UTC 14.4N 55.6W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic
It actually "looks" better tonight.
Aren't those TD level numbers?
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ROCK wrote:that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....
120 out, heading to SFL:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Evil Jeremy wrote:ROCK wrote:that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....
120 out, heading to SFL:
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ ... SLP120.gif
right in line with the CMC, NOGAPS...hmmm....
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- SeminoleWind
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
ROCK wrote:that is the prior 0z run.....120hr hasnt updated yet....out 96hr is what I have....
posted went away now its back, weird.
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
What kind of strength are we looking at here?
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T2.0 would usually correspond to TD strength; however, there is still question about the definition of the surface circulation.
I really think this is going to have shear issues down the road; the anticyclone on the gfs looks small. Too far north or too far south and the storm will get smacked around by either upper-level westerlies or easterlies.
I am also getting tired of the designation "future Emily." It's really starting to remind me of pre-Fiona. I am going to laugh if this ends up being totally insignificant, and the Euro suggests that possibility; actually the gfs is weak too.
And, yes, yes, I know rain/flooding issues. But a tropical cyclone wouldn't even have to exist to cause those problems. So, when I say insignificant, I am referring to its intensity as a tropical cyclone not impact.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I really think this is going to have shear issues down the road; the anticyclone on the gfs looks small. Too far north or too far south and the storm will get smacked around by either upper-level westerlies or easterlies.
I am also getting tired of the designation "future Emily." It's really starting to remind me of pre-Fiona. I am going to laugh if this ends up being totally insignificant, and the Euro suggests that possibility; actually the gfs is weak too.
And, yes, yes, I know rain/flooding issues. But a tropical cyclone wouldn't even have to exist to cause those problems. So, when I say insignificant, I am referring to its intensity as a tropical cyclone not impact.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- SeminoleWind
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144 is out
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