ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't know if it's true or not, but I remember reading somewhere months ago that the 06z and 12z runs are always more likely to trend east, and the 18z and 00z more likely to trend west. Any validity to that?

[GCANE]

Still looks like a wave. 0.5C warm core.

Convection is weak: low rain-rate, warm cold tops, and firing east of the LLC.

Anti-cyclone also weak and positioned east of the LLC as well.

Looks like this will keep moving west.

[KWT]

84hrs, emerging back into water, probably greatly weakened by its trip over the mountions of Hispaniola.

Moving something close to NW.

[Extratropical94]

Recon aircraft is on the way to 91L
Observation 07

000
URNT15 KNHC 011011
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 07 20110801
100100 1637N 06217W 3758 08064 0442 -195 -332 038013 015 /// /// 03
100130 1636N 06215W 3759 08062 0442 -193 -335 032016 020 /// /// 03
100200 1635N 06212W 3758 08064 0442 -195 -340 035019 019 /// /// 03
100230 1634N 06210W 3760 08061 0442 -193 -340 024017 018 /// /// 03
100300 1633N 06207W 3758 08065 0443 -193 -330 027017 017 /// /// 03
100330 1631N 06205W 3758 08064 0443 -191 -317 029017 018 /// /// 03
100400 1630N 06203W 3759 08062 0442 -190 -298 027016 017 /// /// 03
100430 1629N 06200W 3758 08063 0441 -190 -274 031017 017 /// /// 03
100500 1628N 06158W 3759 08061 0440 -194 //// 027015 015 /// /// 05
100530 1627N 06155W 3759 08059 0440 -195 //// 024014 015 /// /// 05
100600 1626N 06153W 3759 08058 0439 -195 //// 021014 014 /// /// 05
100630 1625N 06151W 3759 08058 0439 -195 //// 022013 013 /// /// 05
100700 1623N 06148W 3758 08061 0439 -195 //// 023011 012 /// /// 05
100730 1622N 06146W 3761 08056 0439 -193 //// 023010 010 /// /// 05
100800 1621N 06144W 3758 08063 0440 -193 //// 040009 009 /// /// 05
100830 1620N 06141W 3759 08058 0439 -193 //// 031008 009 /// /// 05
100900 1619N 06139W 3758 08059 0439 -190 //// 035008 009 /// /// 05
100930 1618N 06136W 3759 08060 0440 -190 //// 035009 009 /// /// 05
101000 1617N 06134W 3758 08062 0440 -190 //// 035009 009 /// /// 05
101030 1616N 06132W 3761 08057 0440 -190 //// 041009 010 /// /// 05
$$
;

I'll be right back after lunch when the interesting observations hopefully show up.

[Vortex]

looking much better this morning....

[KWT]

Looks much better but I do notice what GCANE is seeing, the convection does seem to be shifting east of any LLC, esp if that wind graphic is even close to accurate.

Anyway recon heading in there so won't be long one way or the other before we know whats going on.

[KWT]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

Strengthening as it moves close to Florida, movement about WNW.

[KWT]

LANDFALL S.Florida:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

So the west shift continues...

[dwsqos2]

Yeah, the best low-level convergence (surface circulation, well it's looks more cuspy really.) is still displaced the the west or the mid-level circulation. That's apparent in limited surface obs. That buoy was at 14.6N 56.2W and had SE winds.

Low cloud motions suggest that as well.

[GCANE]

IMHO, since this still looks like a wave, track will continue west.

I am starting to feel confident that this will be a GOM TC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

The Gulf may well start coming into play soon if the system keeps on shifting westwards like it is...

Though I'm not sure whether it is a closed system or not, for now the track still looks west of where the models have it going...

GFS heading into the Gulf....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_144l.gif

[KWT]

Well the longer it stays like this the greater the threat towards Florida and possibly even the Gulf (esp W.Gulf IMO) so looks like the threat zone is going to have to be expanded...

dwsqos2, its close but still may not quite be there...

This is so like Dolly...there was about 3-4 times where we were ALL convinced (even the NHC) yet it struggled to pull it together in the low levels.

Only a matter of time though for a system as close as this one.

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011021
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 08 20110801
101100 1614N 06129W 3759 08059 0439 -193 //// 038010 010 /// /// 05
101130 1613N 06127W 3759 08058 0439 -195 //// 038009 010 /// /// 05
101200 1612N 06125W 3759 08058 0439 -192 //// 030009 009 /// /// 05
101230 1611N 06122W 3758 08060 0440 -190 //// 036008 009 /// /// 05
101300 1610N 06120W 3759 08059 0440 -190 //// 051007 008 /// /// 05
101330 1609N 06117W 3759 08059 0440 -190 //// 033006 006 /// /// 05
101400 1607N 06115W 3759 08059 0441 -190 //// 044007 007 /// /// 05
101430 1606N 06113W 3759 08060 0440 -190 //// 049007 007 /// /// 05
101500 1605N 06110W 3758 08062 0440 -190 //// 060007 007 /// /// 05
101530 1604N 06108W 3760 08058 0440 -190 //// 058007 007 /// /// 05
101600 1603N 06106W 3758 08060 0440 -191 //// 064007 007 /// /// 05
101630 1602N 06103W 3759 08060 0440 -195 //// 054007 007 /// /// 05
101700 1600N 06101W 3758 08059 0439 -195 //// 055007 008 /// /// 05
101730 1559N 06059W 3758 08059 0438 -195 //// 054007 008 /// /// 05
101800 1558N 06056W 3758 08059 0438 -195 //// 064008 008 /// /// 05
101830 1556N 06054W 3759 08058 0437 -195 //// 074008 008 /// /// 05
101900 1555N 06052W 3759 08057 0436 -195 //// 064009 012 /// /// 05
101930 1554N 06050W 3758 08057 0435 -199 //// 048008 010 023 000 05
102000 1552N 06048W 3758 08058 0435 -201 //// 048009 011 024 000 01
102030 1551N 06045W 3760 08054 0435 -204 //// 044011 012 024 001 05
$$
;

[KWT]

Starting to recurve up the western part of Florida, AKA Frances 2004:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

Still thats mighty close to the Gulf!!

[Vortex]

6z GFS across SFL...looking more and more plausible it makes its way into the GOM...

[xironman]

IMHO, since this still looks like a wave, track will continue west.

I am starting to feel confident that this will be a GOM TC.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

For all its faults the CMC does pretty good with track and timing, here is were it had it tomorrow from a run last Wednesday

[KWT]

The CMC actually isn't that bad of a model, its sometimes too progressive but for track I've seen it be right a decent number of times. Its good when there is an actual TC out there but it does obviously still have a habit of developing too many systems in the Atlantic...but even thats been improved somewhat.

[Vortex]

should be interesting later today once its classified to read the NHC thinking in the longer range...Probablly a good bet DR/portion of bahamas deal directly with this system..hopefully should it pose a risk to FL hispanolia will have done its dirty work allowing for no more than a modest threat...TDB...

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011031
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 09 20110801
102100 1550N 06043W 3761 08051 0434 -202 //// 043012 015 025 000 05
102130 1548N 06041W 3758 08055 0434 -200 //// 060013 014 024 000 01
102200 1547N 06039W 3759 08053 0433 -198 //// 059012 013 024 000 01
102230 1546N 06037W 3761 08049 0432 -194 //// 053010 011 024 000 01
102300 1544N 06035W 3759 08052 0432 -191 //// 044011 011 025 000 01
102330 1543N 06032W 3761 08049 0432 -190 //// 051011 012 025 000 01
102400 1542N 06030W 3854 07867 0424 -180 //// 055011 012 026 000 01
102430 1540N 06028W 3920 07746 0415 -168 //// 050010 012 026 000 05
102500 1539N 06025W 3975 07641 0408 -160 //// 046010 011 026 000 05
102530 1537N 06023W 4029 07536 0400 -153 //// 044008 008 027 000 05
102600 1536N 06021W 4084 07429 0393 -145 //// 049007 009 028 000 05
102630 1534N 06018W 4142 07321 0385 -138 //// 053005 006 027 000 05
102700 1533N 06016W 4203 07209 0377 -131 //// 061005 005 027 000 05
102730 1531N 06013W 4281 07067 0365 -124 //// 036006 007 028 000 01
102800 1530N 06011W 4340 06962 0359 -114 //// 070007 008 029 000 05
102830 1528N 06009W 4406 06846 0351 -101 //// 081008 009 029 000 05
102900 1527N 06006W 4550 06608 0343 -086 //// 088009 009 029 000 05
102930 1526N 06004W 4728 06306 0322 -074 //// 085006 008 /// /// 05
103000 1524N 06002W 4930 05978 0301 -059 //// 051004 005 /// /// 05
103030 1523N 06000W 5145 05641 0280 -040 //// 063005 007 /// /// 05
$$
;

[Vortex]

6z Nogaps SFL...


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical