ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[cycloneye]

Discussion of 91L by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

Plane is decending.

[KWT]

Thats probasbly a good call rigbht now Vortex, need to hope Hispaniola can do a good job.

In some ways it maybe the worst thing for the system to go over hispaniola as a weak system since there will be no inner core to ruin, it tends to be just quicker to start afresh under good conditions then try to pull it back together.

Models still heading more westwards...and i'm not sure that trend is done either!

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011041
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 10 20110801
103100 1522N 05958W 5360 05317 0261 -032 //// 059008 010 /// /// 05
103130 1520N 05956W 5564 05020 //// -019 //// 062011 011 029 000 05
103200 1519N 05954W 5785 04710 //// +003 //// 064013 013 /// /// 05
103230 1518N 05951W 6005 04403 //// +023 //// 065010 012 /// /// 05
103300 1517N 05949W 6254 04072 //// +046 //// 072007 008 /// /// 05
103330 1515N 05947W 6491 03767 //// +064 //// 089010 013 /// /// 05
103400 1514N 05945W 6701 03503 //// +074 //// 085012 013 /// /// 05
103430 1513N 05943W 6986 03159 //// +097 //// 062014 016 /// /// 05
103500 1512N 05942W 7253 02847 //// +121 //// 056017 017 /// /// 05
103530 1510N 05940W 7530 02529 //// +132 //// 056020 022 /// /// 05
103600 1509N 05938W 7800 02234 0097 +148 -030 059021 023 /// /// 03
103630 1508N 05936W 8088 01926 0101 +159 +001 052026 028 /// /// 03
103700 1507N 05934W 8367 01634 0103 +171 +025 057023 025 /// /// 03
103730 1506N 05932W 8589 01408 0100 +183 +044 056028 030 027 000 03
103800 1505N 05930W 8814 01184 0103 +190 +060 050030 031 /// /// 03
103830 1503N 05929W 9053 00956 0105 +200 +075 046031 031 027 000 03
103900 1502N 05927W 9241 00772 0099 +206 +089 041029 030 027 000 03
103930 1501N 05925W 9443 00582 0098 +212 +101 036027 028 028 000 03
104000 1500N 05924W 9595 00439 0093 +224 +113 035025 026 027 000 03
104030 1459N 05922W 9742 00304 0089 +237 +122 039025 026 028 000 03
$$
;

[KWT]

Recon heading into the system now folks, will be interesting to see where the system is at, I'm not convinced its got a well defined circulation yet but we'll see...

[beoumont]

Wake up and smell the Emily.

[KWT]

It looks like a TD...but as I said earlier Dolly looked like a strong TS at one point yet recon couldn't find anything, but I remember everyone (pro mets, NHC, etc) thought it must be a TC...so it was a hell of a shock when recon found only a hint of a circulation at the surface!

At least its just one system now and not totally elongated.

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011051
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 11 20110801
104100 1458N 05921W 9778 00268 0083 +240 +132 042027 028 028 000 03
104130 1458N 05919W 9771 00273 0082 +240 +140 042025 026 027 000 03
104200 1457N 05918W 9774 00270 0080 +240 +147 042027 030 028 000 03
104230 1456N 05917W 9772 00271 0080 +240 +153 044026 027 027 000 03
104300 1455N 05915W 9768 00275 0080 +240 +158 043026 028 027 001 03
104330 1454N 05914W 9770 00273 0080 +240 +163 045025 026 025 000 03
104400 1454N 05913W 9770 00273 0080 +240 +166 048025 025 026 000 00
104430 1453N 05911W 9767 00276 0080 +238 +169 044024 024 024 001 00
104500 1452N 05910W 9773 00271 0080 +239 +172 044023 024 024 000 03
104530 1451N 05909W 9771 00273 0080 +237 +174 044023 024 024 001 00
104600 1450N 05907W 9766 00277 0080 +237 +177 041024 025 025 000 03
104630 1449N 05906W 9773 00270 0080 +239 +179 042023 024 023 000 03
104700 1449N 05905W 9772 00272 0080 +239 +180 040022 023 023 000 03
104730 1448N 05904W 9765 00278 0080 +240 +181 040022 023 023 000 03
104800 1447N 05902W 9772 00272 0080 +240 +183 043023 024 024 000 00
104830 1446N 05901W 9767 00278 0080 +240 +185 042022 024 025 000 03
104900 1445N 05900W 9768 00275 0080 +240 +186 040022 022 024 000 03
104930 1444N 05858W 9769 00275 0080 +240 +187 038021 022 023 001 03
105000 1444N 05857W 9774 00270 0080 +240 +189 038020 021 022 000 03
105030 1443N 05856W 9768 00276 0080 +238 +190 036020 020 020 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011101
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 12 20110801
105100 1442N 05854W 9771 00272 0079 +240 +190 034019 019 021 000 03
105130 1441N 05853W 9768 00275 0079 +240 +191 033018 019 020 000 00
105200 1440N 05852W 9768 00276 0080 +237 +192 036019 020 024 000 03
105230 1439N 05850W 9767 00277 0080 +236 +192 033019 019 019 001 03
105300 1439N 05849W 9771 00273 0080 +236 +192 036018 018 019 000 03
105330 1438N 05848W 9774 00271 0081 +235 +192 033020 020 019 000 03
105400 1437N 05846W 9772 00275 0082 +234 +192 039017 019 018 000 03
105430 1436N 05845W 9766 00279 0082 +234 +192 046018 019 016 000 00
105500 1435N 05844W 9769 00276 0082 +235 +192 051017 018 018 000 03
105530 1434N 05842W 9771 00274 0082 +235 +193 049017 018 020 000 03
105600 1434N 05841W 9768 00277 0082 +235 +193 042016 017 020 000 03
105630 1433N 05840W 9767 00278 0082 +235 +194 042015 015 018 000 03
105700 1432N 05838W 9774 00272 0082 +235 +194 041014 015 018 000 03
105730 1431N 05837W 9774 00287 0092 +236 +195 049013 014 016 000 03
105800 1430N 05836W 9768 00292 0099 +235 +195 054013 014 017 000 03
105830 1430N 05835W 9768 00293 0099 +235 +196 059013 013 016 000 00
105900 1429N 05833W 9776 00285 0100 +234 +196 061012 013 015 000 00
105930 1428N 05832W 9778 00284 0099 +235 +196 052012 013 017 000 00
110000 1427N 05831W 9769 00291 0099 +235 +197 053012 012 016 000 03
110030 1426N 05829W 9771 00290 0099 +235 +197 069010 010 015 000 03
$$
;

[Nimbus]

The LLC looks like it is under or near that convective burst ~14N ~57W. Not sure what recon is looking at probably trying to get a handle on the wind field?

[Extratropical94]

OK, I'm back on the track.

Shall I take over?

[KWT]

They are probably going to come at it from the south-west side from the looks of things.

91L does look like its trying to develop today, I'd have thought we will get a TD today at some point but we'll have to wait and see!

[KWT]

If you want!

[Aric Dunn]

we should have our TD now. and not surprised the the models shifted more west.. that should be about as far as they go with the recurve solution... any more west shift and it will switch to western carrib.

[Evil Jeremy]

IMO, we get the 100% at 8am, and the upgrade at 11am. It's time.

[Aric Dunn]

they should go straight to emily but wont till recon gets there..

[Extratropical94]

Observation 13

000
URNT15 KNHC 011111
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 13 20110801
110100 1425N 05828W 9774 00287 0099 +236 +197 064012 012 014 000 03
110130 1425N 05827W 9769 00291 0099 +235 +197 063010 011 012 000 03
110200 1424N 05825W 9768 00292 0099 +236 +197 071009 009 011 000 00
110230 1423N 05824W 9772 00288 0099 +235 +198 069009 009 011 000 03
110300 1422N 05823W 9771 00289 0099 +236 +198 075009 010 015 000 03
110330 1421N 05822W 9774 00287 0100 +235 +199 077009 010 015 000 03
110400 1420N 05820W 9767 00295 0101 +236 +199 076010 011 018 000 03
110430 1420N 05819W 9776 00286 0101 +233 +199 096011 011 021 000 03
110500 1419N 05818W 9772 00290 0101 +234 +199 094010 010 017 000 03
110530 1418N 05816W 9767 00295 0100 +239 +198 080010 010 018 000 03
110600 1417N 05815W 9770 00293 0100 +242 +197 083010 011 018 000 03
110630 1416N 05814W 9770 00292 0101 +240 +198 100010 011 016 000 03
110700 1416N 05813W 9774 00289 0101 +235 +198 105010 011 012 000 03
110730 1415N 05811W 9768 00293 0101 +235 +199 106010 011 013 000 03
110800 1414N 05810W 9768 00294 0101 +235 +200 104009 009 013 000 03
110830 1413N 05809W 9770 00292 0101 +235 +200 108009 009 016 000 03
110900 1412N 05807W 9774 00288 0101 +235 +201 108008 008 014 000 03
110930 1412N 05806W 9769 00292 0101 +236 +201 108008 008 014 000 00
111000 1411N 05805W 9768 00293 0101 +235 +201 107008 008 012 000 00
111030 1410N 05804W 9772 00291 0101 +239 +202 104008 009 011 001 03
$$
;

[KWT]

IMO, we get the 100% at 8am, and the upgrade at 11am. It's time.

May as well wait for recon, once recon either confirms or denies the presences of a well defined circulation then we'll see what the NHC does.

Aric, interesting point, the models still take it WNW/NW but the big difference is now they keep it on a WNW track through the Bahamas...

[cycloneye]

For those who dont know the numbers of the wind directions,here they are. I think I saw a 240.

Code: Select all

N
 348.75 - 11.25
 
NNE
 11.25 - 33.75
 
NE
 33.75 - 56.25
 
ENE
 56.25 - 78.75
 
E
 78.75 - 101.25
 
ESE
 101.25 - 123.75
 
SE
 123.75 - 146.25
 
SSE
 146.25 - 168.75
 
S
 168.75 - 191.25
 
SSW
 191.25 - 213.75
 
SW
 213.75 - 236.25
 
WSW
 236.25 - 258.75
 
W
 258.75 - 281.25
 
WNW
 281.25 - 303.75
 
NW
 303.75 - 326.25
 
NNW
 326.25 - 348.75
 


[Aric Dunn]

sure everyone saw this....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noa ... =Animation