ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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The problem is it has 91L emerging from Hispaniola as a 80kt hurricane still...and there is pretty much no chance that would happen!
Still that is one of those scary forecasts!
Still that is one of those scary forecasts!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

I see signs of an LLC.
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M a r k
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Observation 14
000
URNT15 KNHC 011121
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20110801
111100 1409N 05802W 9770 00293 0101 +236 +202 112008 008 014 001 00
111130 1408N 05801W 9768 00294 0102 +236 +203 108009 009 014 000 00
111200 1408N 05800W 9773 00291 0102 +235 +203 106009 010 013 000 00
111230 1407N 05758W 9770 00293 0102 +237 +203 107009 010 015 001 03
111300 1406N 05757W 9769 00294 0103 +235 +203 108010 010 015 000 00
111330 1405N 05756W 9772 00293 0102 +236 +204 113011 011 017 000 00
111400 1404N 05755W 9772 00291 0103 +235 +204 112011 011 017 000 00
111430 1404N 05753W 9771 00293 0103 +235 +204 114011 011 016 000 00
111500 1403N 05752W 9768 00296 0103 +235 +204 114011 012 017 000 03
111530 1402N 05751W 9770 00294 0103 +235 +204 113012 013 018 000 03
111600 1401N 05750W 9773 00290 0103 +235 +205 112012 013 017 000 03
111630 1400N 05748W 9770 00294 0103 +235 +205 120012 012 016 000 00
111700 1359N 05747W 9757 00306 0104 +235 +205 134012 013 017 000 03
111730 1358N 05746W 9765 00302 0108 +235 +206 141012 012 017 000 00
111800 1357N 05744W 9774 00295 0109 +235 +207 143011 012 016 000 00
111830 1356N 05743W 9766 00302 0109 +235 +209 139010 011 014 000 00
111900 1356N 05741W 9772 00297 0108 +235 +210 138010 011 013 000 00
111930 1355N 05739W 9770 00298 0108 +235 +212 139010 010 013 000 03
112000 1354N 05738W 9773 00295 0108 +237 +213 140010 011 014 000 00
112030 1353N 05736W 9769 00300 0108 +238 +214 138009 010 016 000 03
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 011121
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 14 20110801
111100 1409N 05802W 9770 00293 0101 +236 +202 112008 008 014 001 00
111130 1408N 05801W 9768 00294 0102 +236 +203 108009 009 014 000 00
111200 1408N 05800W 9773 00291 0102 +235 +203 106009 010 013 000 00
111230 1407N 05758W 9770 00293 0102 +237 +203 107009 010 015 001 03
111300 1406N 05757W 9769 00294 0103 +235 +203 108010 010 015 000 00
111330 1405N 05756W 9772 00293 0102 +236 +204 113011 011 017 000 00
111400 1404N 05755W 9772 00291 0103 +235 +204 112011 011 017 000 00
111430 1404N 05753W 9771 00293 0103 +235 +204 114011 011 016 000 00
111500 1403N 05752W 9768 00296 0103 +235 +204 114011 012 017 000 03
111530 1402N 05751W 9770 00294 0103 +235 +204 113012 013 018 000 03
111600 1401N 05750W 9773 00290 0103 +235 +205 112012 013 017 000 03
111630 1400N 05748W 9770 00294 0103 +235 +205 120012 012 016 000 00
111700 1359N 05747W 9757 00306 0104 +235 +205 134012 013 017 000 03
111730 1358N 05746W 9765 00302 0108 +235 +206 141012 012 017 000 00
111800 1357N 05744W 9774 00295 0109 +235 +207 143011 012 016 000 00
111830 1356N 05743W 9766 00302 0109 +235 +209 139010 011 014 000 00
111900 1356N 05741W 9772 00297 0108 +235 +210 138010 011 013 000 00
111930 1355N 05739W 9770 00298 0108 +235 +212 139010 010 013 000 03
112000 1354N 05738W 9773 00295 0108 +237 +213 140010 011 014 000 00
112030 1353N 05736W 9769 00300 0108 +238 +214 138009 010 016 000 03
$$
;
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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- Daniel
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dang.. latest visible images.. im still seeing another vort SW of the main area,... with convection starting to build... the Euro seems persistent of splitting it so maybe thats whats happening..
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Re:
KWT wrote:The problem is it has 91L emerging from Hispaniola as a 80kt hurricane still...and there is pretty much no chance that would happen!
Still that is one of those scary forecasts!
well it never actually made landfall.. just skimmed the coast.
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Not seeing anything at the moment that suggests a low level circulation from recon, I'll wait till the next few sets come out but looking like its still lacking with the surface department.
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Re:
KWT wrote:Not seeing anything at the moment that suggests a low level circulation from recon, I'll wait till the next few sets come out but looking like its still lacking with the surface department.
yeah cause the low level swirl off the the SW is still killing the westerly inflow ...
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
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Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
24-26 are all overland, close to coast but deffo overland, and mountinous land at that...no way it comes out a 80-90kts hurricane with that sort of travel over that type of land...
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images ?
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hmmm... looked like most the circ was still over water,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
Saved model images for reference.












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M a r k
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- Extratropical94
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Observation 15
000
URNT15 KNHC 011131
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 15 20110801
112100 1352N 05735W 9770 00298 0109 +236 +215 138010 010 017 000 00
112130 1351N 05733W 9774 00295 0108 +240 +216 132012 013 018 000 00
112200 1350N 05732W 9768 00298 0107 +223 +216 139011 013 027 007 03
112230 1349N 05730W 9772 00293 0108 +202 //// 142012 013 034 007 05
112300 1348N 05729W 9759 00308 0111 +204 //// 142010 011 032 005 05
112330 1347N 05727W 9773 00296 0109 +231 +197 139012 012 022 004 03
112400 1346N 05726W 9769 00301 0110 +231 +193 146011 012 022 000 00
112430 1345N 05724W 9773 00295 0109 +240 +192 147012 013 018 001 03
112500 1344N 05723W 9776 00293 0109 +241 +194 152012 013 017 000 00
112530 1343N 05721W 9771 00297 0108 +238 +198 146012 013 020 001 00
112600 1342N 05720W 9773 00295 0109 +229 +202 148013 014 023 006 03
112630 1341N 05718W 9768 00300 0109 +237 +204 148012 013 020 000 03
112700 1340N 05717W 9766 00302 0110 +236 +206 150012 013 017 000 00
112730 1339N 05715W 9775 00298 0112 +238 +208 149012 012 /// /// 03
112800 1338N 05715W 9769 00302 0112 +240 +210 130012 013 /// /// 03
112830 1336N 05716W 9761 00309 0111 +238 +213 128015 016 020 000 03
112900 1336N 05718W 9771 00300 0111 +240 +216 128013 014 017 000 03
112930 1335N 05720W 9770 00301 0111 +236 +217 127012 012 019 000 00
113000 1335N 05722W 9771 00300 0111 +236 +219 125012 012 017 000 03
113030 1334N 05724W 9770 00300 0110 +236 +220 127012 013 014 000 03
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 011131
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 15 20110801
112100 1352N 05735W 9770 00298 0109 +236 +215 138010 010 017 000 00
112130 1351N 05733W 9774 00295 0108 +240 +216 132012 013 018 000 00
112200 1350N 05732W 9768 00298 0107 +223 +216 139011 013 027 007 03
112230 1349N 05730W 9772 00293 0108 +202 //// 142012 013 034 007 05
112300 1348N 05729W 9759 00308 0111 +204 //// 142010 011 032 005 05
112330 1347N 05727W 9773 00296 0109 +231 +197 139012 012 022 004 03
112400 1346N 05726W 9769 00301 0110 +231 +193 146011 012 022 000 00
112430 1345N 05724W 9773 00295 0109 +240 +192 147012 013 018 001 03
112500 1344N 05723W 9776 00293 0109 +241 +194 152012 013 017 000 00
112530 1343N 05721W 9771 00297 0108 +238 +198 146012 013 020 001 00
112600 1342N 05720W 9773 00295 0109 +229 +202 148013 014 023 006 03
112630 1341N 05718W 9768 00300 0109 +237 +204 148012 013 020 000 03
112700 1340N 05717W 9766 00302 0110 +236 +206 150012 013 017 000 00
112730 1339N 05715W 9775 00298 0112 +238 +208 149012 012 /// /// 03
112800 1338N 05715W 9769 00302 0112 +240 +210 130012 013 /// /// 03
112830 1336N 05716W 9761 00309 0111 +238 +213 128015 016 020 000 03
112900 1336N 05718W 9771 00300 0111 +240 +216 128013 014 017 000 03
112930 1335N 05720W 9770 00301 0111 +236 +217 127012 012 019 000 00
113000 1335N 05722W 9771 00300 0111 +236 +219 125012 012 017 000 03
113030 1334N 05724W 9770 00300 0110 +236 +220 127012 013 014 000 03
$$
;
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54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
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Most models look like they are quite agressive when it comes to the strength north of Hispaniola, conditions actually do look quite good due to that weak ridge that forms over GA/SC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models
The good news is that the models are pointing to me without a named stormed. Never happens. When there not pointing towards S.Fl. I would worry. 

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hurricanelonny
Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Does anyone else find this storm annoying that it hasn't formed yet?
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"People might not get all they work for in this world, but they must certainly work for all they get."- Frederick Douglass
Re: Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:yeah cause the low level swirl off the the SW is still killing the westerly inflow ...
Really is causing all manner of problems, I suppose thats why the models have backed off strengthening too much in the Caribbean and the main pluse of strengthening now takes place near the Bahamas.
Still think its only a matter ot ime, because the system is far more compacted then yesterday.
Ah well Dolly faked out about 4 times before it finally formed...it was an invest from 30W through to about 85W...so long way to go till we get that far!
Last edited by KWT on Mon Aug 01, 2011 6:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
AHS2011 wrote:Does anyone else find this storm annoying that it hasn't formed yet?
Oh yea. First it was linear. Then it was having a civil war. And the models keep on floping, and recon data wasn't coming through... this is an annoying invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion
Interesting, just like what was going on with Don last week.
Core seems to get compressed during the earlier part of the day.

Core seems to get compressed during the earlier part of the day.
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