ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Don't post misinformation like that bro, it's VERY much in DOUBT that SFL will get anything more like some bands from this. If it doesn't get tangled up in the islands long enough for ridging to build in, still recurve IMHO.

What minformation? Some models are pegging south florida. Its in play. I didn't say "omg fclorida will get hit", I said its in play. Big difference.

[Aric Dunn]

hwrf same as 00z just stronger.. heading towards west palm

[Rainband]

GFDL has been a bit flip-flopping all over the place, what does it do in terms of strength?

http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest91l.2011080106/invest91l.2011080106_anim.html

jeanne number 2

[hurricaneCW]

Wouldn't it be funny if it never even developed, talk about a waste of time if that happens.

[TheBurn]

[KWT]

Don't post misinformation like that bro, it's VERY much in DOUBT that SFL will get anything more like some bands from this. If it doesn't get tangled up in the islands long enough for ridging to build in, still recurve IMHO.

Mate thats far from misinformation...your posting constant misinformation regarding your rock solid belief for a recurve...

Right now its still very much in the air, models have trended WEST (don't even try to deny that!) and less models now outright recurve. The pattern is still for recurve BUT the big difference is the system is weaker for longer thus gets further west and the models now form a weak ridge as well...

As for strength, you maybe right but Hispaniola didn't stop Jeanne from becoming a major and didn't stop David restrengthening into a hurricane in 79...didn't stop Frederic from becoming a major hurricane in the gulf...didn't stop gustav becoming a category-4 either...

It will certainly have a huge impact but I think people who expect to kil lthe storm outright is living on the edge, if the pattern is good enough aloft and its got enough time it will restrengthen to some degree.

[plasticup]

0Z GFS puts it on the tip of Florida and slides all the way up to the panhandle. Monster!

[Extratropical94]

Observation 19,
I gotta go... someone feel free to continue posting.


000
URNT15 KNHC 011211
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 19 20110801
120100 1256N 05749W 9771 00303 0114 +236 +222 164015 016 015 000 03
120130 1255N 05747W 9769 00306 0115 +235 +222 163015 015 015 000 03
120200 1255N 05746W 9769 00307 0116 +237 +222 163015 015 014 000 03
120230 1254N 05744W 9771 00304 0116 +239 +222 161015 016 017 000 03
120300 1253N 05742W 9769 00306 0116 +237 +222 161015 015 015 000 03
120330 1252N 05741W 9772 00304 0117 +235 +222 163015 015 017 000 03
120400 1251N 05739W 9771 00306 0117 +239 +222 157015 016 016 000 03
120430 1250N 05738W 9771 00306 0117 +237 +223 163017 018 016 000 03
120500 1249N 05736W 9771 00306 0117 +235 +223 166017 017 014 000 00
120530 1248N 05734W 9772 00306 0117 +237 +223 162018 019 012 000 03
120600 1248N 05733W 9770 00307 0117 +236 +223 164017 018 016 000 03
120630 1247N 05731W 9773 00305 0118 +240 +223 164017 018 018 000 03
120700 1246N 05730W 9770 00308 0118 +240 +223 164017 017 017 000 03
120730 1245N 05728W 9771 00307 0119 +240 +223 162017 018 018 000 03
120800 1244N 05726W 9768 00310 0119 +239 +223 163017 018 019 000 03
120830 1243N 05725W 9771 00308 0120 +239 +223 165018 018 019 000 03
120900 1243N 05723W 9772 00308 0119 +239 +223 165019 020 020 000 03
120930 1242N 05722W 9772 00306 0119 +239 +223 163020 021 019 000 03
121000 1241N 05720W 9769 00309 0119 +239 +224 164020 021 020 000 03
121030 1240N 05718W 9771 00307 0119 +240 +223 164021 021 022 000 03
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Don't post misinformation like that bro, it's VERY much in DOUBT that SFL will get anything more like some bands from this. If it doesn't get tangled up in the islands long enough for ridging to build in, still recurve IMHO.

What minformation? Some models are pegging south florida. Its in play. I didn't say "omg fclorida will get hit", I said its in play. Big difference.

You're are correct, Florida is very much under play with the models continuing to trend westward in their solutions. I'd ignore the rudeness!

[KWT]

MLC looking good, maybe an idea if recon just has a look just in case there is a wind shift at the surface under the MLC that may suggest its digging down.

Other then that still likely to be an invest in a few hours time...the wait goes on!

[HURRICANELONNY]

days ago it was a fish. now it's florida. soon to be a fish again

[KWT]

0Z GFS puts it on the tip of Florida and slides all the way up to the panhandle. Monster!

Yeah, not sure how strong it'd be but given all models strengthen the system near the Bahamas its probably fair to say the set-up aloft looks pretty favourable, esp as that weak upper high forms.

[shaggy]

Gonna give NC a good brush also if you believe the GFS.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great post KWT.

[SFLcane]

Look at the consensus model...

[img][/img]

[Aric Dunn]

after seeing more visible this morning.. Im leaning towards maybe no development. lol

[KWT]

Pretty much if the system is upgraded today that consensus track would be pretty close to the NHC forecast, so you can pretty much assume any NHC track will take it through the Bahamas close to Florida.

Models will shift again for sure, I suspect there is probably abit more westward adjustment to be made...

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011221
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 20 20110801
121100 1239N 05717W 9769 00309 0120 +239 +223 165020 021 022 000 00
121130 1238N 05715W 9773 00307 0120 +240 +224 166021 021 022 000 03
121200 1238N 05714W 9773 00307 0120 +240 +224 165020 020 020 000 00
121230 1237N 05712W 9772 00308 0120 +240 +224 165020 020 020 000 03
121300 1236N 05710W 9771 00309 0121 +240 +224 164019 020 020 000 03
121330 1235N 05709W 9769 00312 0121 +240 +224 163018 019 019 000 03
121400 1234N 05707W 9772 00310 0122 +240 +224 163018 019 019 000 00
121430 1233N 05705W 9770 00312 0123 +240 +224 163017 018 018 000 00
121500 1232N 05704W 9770 00311 0123 +240 +224 163016 017 016 000 03
121530 1232N 05702W 9771 00312 0124 +240 +224 165016 016 016 000 00
121600 1231N 05701W 9768 00314 0124 +240 +224 166016 016 013 000 03
121630 1230N 05659W 9768 00316 0125 +240 +224 165019 019 012 000 03
121700 1230N 05657W 9771 00313 0125 +240 +224 165018 019 014 000 03
121730 1231N 05655W 9770 00313 0125 +240 +224 166018 019 012 000 03
121800 1231N 05653W 9771 00313 0125 +240 +224 168018 019 013 000 00
121830 1231N 05651W 9768 00317 0126 +240 +224 166018 019 016 000 03
121900 1231N 05649W 9770 00314 0126 +240 +224 167018 019 013 000 03
121930 1231N 05647W 9770 00314 0126 +240 +224 167018 018 014 000 03
122000 1231N 05646W 9771 00315 0127 +241 +224 168018 018 012 000 00
122030 1231N 05644W 9771 00315 0127 +240 +225 168018 018 012 000 03
$$
;

[Portastorm]

Unfortunatly, there is no doubt now that Florida is in play:

Don't post misinformation like that bro, it's VERY much in DOUBT that SFL will get anything more like some bands from this. If it doesn't get tangled up in the islands long enough for ridging to build in, still recurve IMHO.

Just so everyone is clear on this ... Evil Jeremy's post was not misinformation at all. It was a member's opinion based on model trends, just as it is Weatherfreak000's OPINION that 91L will recurve.

Mods/admins will decide what is misinformation and what isn't. If a member believes "misinformation" has been posted, please report it to one of us and we will happily handle it.

Now ... back to the model discussion.

[KWT]

What, no development today, or at all Aric??

I also don't think its getting upgraded today...unless something changes!