ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[xironman]

I don't know. Right now it does not look so good because the interference from that eddy, but for once the lower level convergence is well aligned with the convection, which should help keep it going today. So I think it finally overwhelms the split off parts.



Then again always get your information from reliable sources.

[plasticup]

0Z GFS puts it on the tip of Florida and slides all the way up to the panhandle. Monster!

Yeah, not sure how strong it'd be but given all models strengthen the system near the Bahamas its probably fair to say the set-up aloft looks pretty favourable, esp as that weak upper high forms.

The good news is that the western tracks continue to be the weaker ones, because the deeper storms feel the trough more strongly. Although even the aggressive runs bring this close to Florida - well within their 6-day margin of error.

[GCANE]

This may remain a wave through, at least, part of the east Carib.

MIMIC-TPW is showing a cut-off of boundary-layer moisture infeed on the west and south of 91L.

[Aric Dunn]

What, no development today, or at all Aric??

I also don't think its getting upgraded today...unless something changes!

right now we basically have 2 tiny areas of convection.. and they are actually just individual T'storms. no organization at all.. there is still a strong wave axis with a slight rotation that extends well to the south. no where is there enough convection lower pressure enough to develop a LLC that would be capable of changing the flow. the only going for it is there is still a good upper environment. but dry air is not allowing convection to maintain. at some point the lack of convection will completely weaken the wave axis and flow thus making it harder to develop.. point being we need sustained convection over a large enough area ... right nothing even remotely close.

[tolakram]

But there is no center yet, so IMO the most accurate models will be the globals.

[Nimbus]

The models shifted left with the extrapolated motion and delayed intensification. If 91L spins up before entering the Caribbean the models could shift right again.

Actually I think a lot of people saw the models shifting west last night the changes were evident 12 hours ago.

[hurricanedude]

i have a really stupid question...and im sure i will get some really smart a@@ answers, but....anyhow.....why cant they issue a TS watch for the Islands if there fairly certain this will affect the islands as a TS, I understand it isnt a TS yet, however conditions are favorable for it to develop.......with that said....severe thunder and tornado watches are issued when there are no storms right? A watch simply means a specific threat is possibe, so would it be that odd to issue a TS watch just in case? I mean if it dont develop...no harm done...how many times do we get nothing when a thunder or tornado watch is issued....and please only answer if you dont plan on getting smart.....i really want good opinions, not junk talk

[tolakram]

I agree, I think a watch is appropriate in this situation. A watch does not mean anything will hit, just watch out.

As to the MIMIC-TPW, unlike yesterday I see some circularity (is that really a word!) and no more squished presentation, just a wedge of dry air working out. Looks improved IMO, but still a ways to go.

[Vortex]

A little more time folks...probably closes off as it's passing through the windward. Maybe later tonight, perhaps by morning.

[SFLcane]

[Aric Dunn]

on a side note... I see a decent swirl that just popped out the NW side of the MLC... at least a sign there is still some vorticity at the surface..

[maxx9512]

Has something like this not developed? Something with this high a % for as long as 91L has been, not
been called a TC? i can't find or remember any. Maybe I'm not looking in the right places. If this has been mentioned and answered
my apologies. Thanks for any answers.

[GCANE]

Abnormal ionospheric heating continues due to solar activity.

It is becoming apparent to me that this effect is pushing down on the circulation of 91L and inhibiting development.

[dwsqos2]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011241
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 22 20110801
123100 1304N 05636W 9770 00318 0130 +240 +226 144021 022 016 000 00
123130 1306N 05636W 9771 00319 0130 +240 +226 142021 022 017 000 03
123200 1308N 05637W 9768 00320 0131 +240 +225 140020 021 020 000 00
123230 1310N 05637W 9769 00320 0132 +239 +225 130020 021 021 000 03
123300 1312N 05637W 9771 00319 0131 +240 +224 130020 020 019 000 00
123330 1314N 05637W 9772 00317 0132 +232 +223 118022 023 020 000 03
123400 1316N 05638W 9767 00322 0131 +231 +223 114024 025 025 000 03
123430 1318N 05638W 9769 00319 0131 +231 +221 117025 027 027 000 03
123500 1320N 05638W 9770 00318 0130 +235 +220 118028 029 026 000 03
123530 1322N 05639W 9772 00316 0131 +230 +219 114031 031 027 000 03
123600 1324N 05639W 9762 00325 0132 +228 +218 118031 032 027 000 03
123630 1326N 05638W 9772 00317 0132 +228 +216 119033 034 027 000 03
123700 1328N 05638W 9768 00321 0132 +230 +215 120034 035 027 001 03
123730 1330N 05638W 9770 00317 0131 +231 +213 124035 036 029 000 03
123800 1332N 05638W 9774 00313 0131 +232 +213 125035 036 029 002 03
123830 1334N 05639W 9769 00319 0130 +236 +212 121038 038 030 001 00
123900 1336N 05640W 9770 00318 0130 +235 +213 123037 037 030 001 03
123930 1338N 05641W 9774 00315 0132 +230 +213 121033 036 030 000 03
124000 1340N 05642W 9772 00315 0132 +223 +214 119034 034 029 000 03
124030 1341N 05643W 9771 00318 0132 +229 +213 119033 034 029 000 03
$$

38 knot east southeasterly winds; not particularly exciting but relatively strong.

[gatorcane]

It looks to me like it is on its way to development, but it is going to be a slow process here. Nothing really indicated it would spin up quickly. 90% looks good and my call also on this.

I can see Emily later today or by tomorrow AM at the latest.

Eastern blob did win out as expected.

[Frank2]

Just a couple of convective blobs surrounded by dry air, not to mention shear to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

perhaps that's why some models over the weekend dropped the system completely...

Frank

[fci]

i have a really stupid question...and im sure i will get some really smart a@@ answers, but....anyhow.....why cant they issue a TS watch for the Islands if there fairly certain this will affect the islands as a TS, I understand it isnt a TS yet, however conditions are favorable for it to develop.......with that said....severe thunder and tornado watches are issued when there are no storms right? A watch simply means a specific threat is possibe, so would it be that odd to issue a TS watch just in case? I mean if it dont develop...no harm done...how many times do we get nothing when a thunder or tornado watch is issued....and please only answer if you dont plan on getting smart.....i really want good opinions, not junk talk

Sounds like a valid question to me as the definition of a "watch" would be fulfilled even if a system has yet to be classified.

[Hurricanehink]

i have a really stupid question...and im sure i will get some really smart a@@ answers, but....anyhow.....why cant they issue a TS watch for the Islands if there fairly certain this will affect the islands as a TS, I understand it isnt a TS yet, however conditions are favorable for it to develop.......with that said....severe thunder and tornado watches are issued when there are no storms right? A watch simply means a specific threat is possibe, so would it be that odd to issue a TS watch just in case? I mean if it dont develop...no harm done...how many times do we get nothing when a thunder or tornado watch is issued....and please only answer if you dont plan on getting smart.....i really want good opinions, not junk talk

I have often wondered this as well. The NHC could be doing more for not-quite tropical storms. Remember Claudette 03? That moved through the islands as a tropical wave with TS-force winds. IMO, there should've been tropical storm watches to highlight the potential for imminent development and the hazards that go along with it.

[Aric Dunn]

Abnormal ionospheric heating continues due to solar activity.

It is becoming apparent to me that this effect is pushing down on the circulation of 91L and inhibiting development.


http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/drap/Global.png

unfortunately ... the evidence for that is not clear and the heating would occur on a global scale. that being said we have Eugene and the systems in the west pack not showing any inhibiting factors. Also the pressure from the ionosphere is so miniscule I cant even understand why anyone would purpose such a theory. for many years... meteorologist and scientist debated if the high altitude QBO had an effect but could not find any conclusive evidence... now we are up to the ionosphere..... ?? really I knows its not your theory ... Just saying.

[SFLcane]

12z models..I'd say florida is in play atleast for the time being.