ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011230
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 21 20110801
122100 1231N 05642W 9771 00315 0127 +240 +225 170018 019 011 000 03
122130 1231N 05640W 9771 00316 0127 +240 +224 172018 018 012 000 03
122200 1231N 05638W 9769 00316 0128 +240 +225 171018 018 016 000 03
122230 1232N 05636W 9771 00316 0128 +240 +225 169018 019 015 000 00
122300 1232N 05634W 9775 00312 0127 +240 +225 165018 019 012 001 03
122330 1233N 05633W 9770 00317 0128 +240 +225 155020 020 017 001 03
122400 1235N 05633W 9779 00309 0128 +240 +227 150020 020 018 000 03
122430 1237N 05633W 9769 00317 0128 +240 +229 152021 021 018 000 00
122500 1239N 05634W 9770 00315 0127 +240 +231 153021 021 018 000 03
122530 1242N 05634W 9772 00313 0127 +240 +233 153021 022 019 000 03
122600 1244N 05634W 9771 00315 0127 +240 +234 152022 022 019 000 03
122630 1246N 05634W 9771 00317 0128 +240 +235 149022 022 019 000 03
122700 1248N 05634W 9771 00315 0128 +240 +235 148022 022 018 000 03
122730 1250N 05635W 9772 00316 0129 +240 +235 148021 022 019 000 00
122800 1252N 05635W 9770 00317 0128 +240 +234 147021 022 018 000 00
122830 1254N 05635W 9767 00321 0129 +240 +233 145021 021 019 000 03
122900 1256N 05635W 9772 00316 0129 +240 +232 148020 021 016 000 03
122930 1258N 05635W 9768 00319 0129 +240 +230 147021 021 019 000 03
123000 1300N 05636W 9771 00317 0129 +240 +229 147022 022 020 000 03
123030 1302N 05636W 9773 00316 0129 +240 +227 146022 022 019 000 00
$$

[tolakram]

IMO the 2005 generation (dare I say) is still stunned when a storm does not develop quickly so they look for reasons. 2005 was abnormal, it's darn hard for a tropical cyclone to develop, and if anything 91L is behaving normally. Not targeted at GCANE but at some of the theories.

[AHS2011]

What would you say the threat level of a landfall is for New England on a scale of 1 to 10 is with 10 being the highest?

[NDG]

In the past few weeks, whenever a trough pattern has been in place on the east coast the tropical waves have either tracked across southern FL or come really close to S FL.
People in SE FL have to keep an eye on future to be Emily, any slightly stronger ridging that stays in place before it feels the effects of the first trough could make it get closer to SE FL as a weak ridging temporarily places itself over the Carolinas to make her track back to a WNW heading north of the greater Antilles before the second trough comes down by next Sunday.
The good news is that Emily would have to track across the high terrains of Hispaniola or eastern Cuba before it would threaten SE FL.


Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

.

As I have not been very worried about the Leewards and Puerto Rico because I have been forecasting only slow, gradual organization, I am not that worried for SE Florida. I still do not see a pattern that can bring a significant system here, though I a monitoring.

Tropical models are trending to my thinking from last night.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Is this going to be another charlie track? Is this a possible track ????????????

[Bad_Hurricane]

What would you say the threat level of a landfall is for New England on a scale of 1 to 10 is with 10 being the highest?

Wait first that the system develop into a TS.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011252
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 23 20110801
124100 1343N 05645W 9771 00317 0131 +227 +213 118033 034 029 000 03
124130 1345N 05646W 9769 00318 0130 +232 +212 121035 036 029 000 03
124200 1347N 05647W 9771 00315 0130 +233 +211 121036 037 030 000 03
124230 1349N 05648W 9769 00317 0129 +232 +211 120037 037 031 000 03
124300 1350N 05649W 9771 00315 0129 +230 +211 122037 038 032 001 03
124330 1352N 05651W 9764 00319 0127 +231 +211 126038 038 032 000 03
124400 1354N 05652W 9772 00313 0127 +228 +211 125037 039 033 000 03
124430 1356N 05653W 9767 00316 0126 +226 +212 129038 038 035 001 03
124500 1359N 05654W 9772 00312 0126 +229 +214 131038 039 036 001 03
124530 1401N 05655W 9769 00314 0126 +226 +215 126037 038 035 002 00
124600 1401N 05655W 9769 00314 0126 +221 +215 128037 038 034 000 03
124630 1405N 05656W 9770 00311 0126 +220 +210 127035 035 033 000 03
124700 1407N 05657W 9772 00311 0126 +223 +204 125037 038 032 000 03
124730 1409N 05658W 9769 00312 0124 +224 +200 125038 038 035 001 00
124800 1411N 05659W 9775 00306 0124 +225 +199 124038 038 033 000 03
124830 1414N 05659W 9771 00310 0127 +224 +201 123035 036 029 001 03
124900 1416N 05659W 9778 00307 0128 +222 +203 126033 034 /// /// 03
124930 1417N 05657W 9766 00318 0129 +220 +205 127031 032 031 000 03
125000 1418N 05656W 9771 00313 0130 +221 +207 128032 032 030 001 00
125030 1419N 05654W 9773 00313 0131 +220 +208 128030 031 031 002 00
$$
;

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011301
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 24 20110801
125100 1420N 05652W 9774 00314 0131 +219 +208 129029 030 031 002 03
125130 1421N 05650W 9772 00314 0131 +220 +207 130029 030 030 000 03
125200 1422N 05648W 9773 00316 0132 +217 +204 129028 029 031 000 03
125230 1423N 05647W 9772 00315 0132 +218 +202 129029 030 031 000 03
125300 1423N 05645W 9772 00315 0132 +220 +199 129028 029 034 000 03
125330 1424N 05643W 9769 00318 0133 +217 +197 130028 029 032 001 03
125400 1425N 05641W 9770 00320 0135 +215 +195 128027 028 033 002 03
125430 1425N 05639W 9774 00316 0135 +220 +193 127028 028 032 002 03
125500 1426N 05637W 9769 00321 0135 +219 +189 126027 028 031 001 00
125530 1427N 05636W 9771 00320 0136 +226 +187 128027 028 028 000 03
125600 1428N 05634W 9778 00314 0136 +230 +186 130026 027 027 000 03
125630 1429N 05632W 9766 00325 0136 +229 +189 133026 027 /// /// 03
125700 1431N 05632W 9774 00317 0135 +228 +194 124028 028 /// /// 03
125730 1433N 05633W 9771 00320 0135 +228 +199 119026 027 /// /// 03
125800 1433N 05635W 9768 00324 0135 +230 +204 114023 024 025 000 03
125830 1432N 05637W 9768 00323 0136 +229 +208 108024 024 027 001 03
125900 1431N 05640W 9770 00320 0135 +230 +211 108025 025 028 002 03
125930 1430N 05642W 9768 00324 0135 +227 +213 106025 026 029 000 00
130000 1429N 05644W 9770 00320 0135 +222 +215 105025 025 030 000 03
130030 1428N 05646W 9771 00317 0134 +220 +216 105026 027 032 000 03
$$
;

[Evil Jeremy]

1 (really the minimum because anything is possible in the tropics) Not likely though. Recurve would happen south of New England.

[Frank2]

Just a couple of convective blobs surrounded by dry air, not to mention shear to the west:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg

perhaps that's why some models over the weekend dropped the system completely...

Frank

There is some turning but so far recon has found only easterly winds (or nothing less than 360 or greater than 180) - perhaps what we see is an MLC not an LLC...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

Google images..

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 011302
97779 12594 20145 56718 03100 11025 23218 /0013
41125
RMK AF304 03EEA INVEST OB 08
SWS = 28 KTS

[colbroe]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1145 UTC 14.6N 56.7W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

From this T number 91L must be a depression by now .

[NDG]

Still no sign of a LLC forming near the MLC.
Surface vorticity is near or just south of Barbados, clearly seen on vis sat loop.

[AHS2011]

colbroe, what's a T number?

[Aric Dunn]

Still no sign of a LLC forming near the MLC.
Surface vorticity is near or just south of Barbados, clearly seen on vis sat loop.

yep... except the small vort that I posted got spit out from the MLC ..

which could take over if some decent convection would build over it.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Frank2]

Still no sign of a LLC forming near the MLC.
Surface vorticity is near or just south of Barbados, clearly seen on vis sat loop.

I agree...

[Aric Dunn]

That vort is by far the most defined circ I have see thus far.. problem is ... its just rotating around the larger gyre ...

[NDG]

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
01/1145 UTC 14.6N 56.7W T2.0/2.0 91L -- Atlantic

From this T number 91L must be a depression by now .

That's probably from the strong MLC presentation, recon did find tropical force winds, but no LLC yet near the MLC.

[sicktght311]

Posted here nervously on Friday when this first popped up, then breathed a sigh of relief when it was turning into a fish, now here it is back at work monday and i'm back to pulling my hair out...........

Original post.............
So........this is not what i wanted to see today. I have a cruise coming from miami to key west to cozumel and back leaving august 4th, returning august 8th. And something special is suppposed to go down on that cruise between my girlfriend and I *cough*ring*cough*.

So far it seems like tracks take it to the north of the yucatan and over cuba etc. Any clue what the current models do in terms of time frame for the area? I'm not so knowledgeable on how to track the models in terms of time frame. Does each dot on a model represent 6 hours? 12 hours?

Well so here i am again, worrying that the GFS verifies and 91L will be barreling through Puerto Rico and Haiti while i'm in key west, on its way to miami while i'm in cozumel, and then blowing up Southern Florida while we're on our way back/back to miami.

Fingers crossed for a major shift north and east once this thing actually forms