ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Frank2]

...in the end like the Federal budget 91L is running out of time - if it moves over the larger islands in this weaken state it'll dissipate fairly quickly, as have others this season and last (can't recall which one it was last summer or in 2009, but there was a lot of jumping up and down for several days over a similar system east of the islands, because the thinking was that it might become a major hurricane - until it moved over the larger islands as a weak system and fell apart)...

Frank

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011311
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 25 20110801
130100 1427N 05648W 9770 00320 0133 +219 +215 105025 027 029 000 03
130130 1426N 05650W 9772 00318 0134 +218 +214 106026 027 028 000 00
130200 1425N 05652W 9771 00317 0133 +220 +212 104025 026 029 000 03
130230 1424N 05654W 9783 00308 0134 +220 +210 109026 028 030 000 00
130300 1423N 05656W 9770 00318 0132 +219 +209 109027 028 031 000 03
130330 1422N 05658W 9771 00316 0131 +221 +208 112028 029 029 000 03
130400 1421N 05659W 9769 00317 0131 +222 +206 113028 030 031 000 03
130430 1420N 05701W 9770 00317 0131 +222 +204 112028 028 030 000 00
130500 1418N 05702W 9770 00316 0131 +223 +205 113028 028 029 000 00
130530 1417N 05704W 9768 00319 0131 +225 +205 111028 028 028 000 03
130600 1416N 05705W 9769 00317 0131 +225 +207 113028 029 028 000 03
130630 1414N 05707W 9770 00317 0131 +225 +208 113027 028 028 000 03
130700 1413N 05709W 9768 00318 0130 +224 +209 111027 028 028 000 03
130730 1412N 05710W 9773 00314 0130 +225 +209 114027 028 029 000 03
130800 1411N 05712W 9771 00314 0130 +225 +210 115027 028 029 000 03
130830 1409N 05713W 9770 00316 0128 +226 +211 116026 026 028 001 00
130900 1408N 05715W 9771 00313 0127 +227 +211 117028 029 028 001 03
130930 1407N 05716W 9767 00318 0127 +225 +212 121030 031 030 000 03
131000 1405N 05718W 9770 00311 0125 +225 +212 123033 034 032 000 03
131030 1404N 05719W 9772 00310 0123 +224 +212 130033 033 037 001 03
$$
;

[artist]

anyone able to do the images? Also, I will be in and out but will try to keep up with the obs.

[KWT]

To be fair a weaker system tends to do better over mountions, it's when they form inner cores they struggle to bounce back. Plenty of time yet frank, it's got 3 days, I've seen systems go from nearly nothing to 70-85kts in that time...

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011322
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 26 20110801
131100 1403N 05721W 9772 00308 0123 +223 +211 128028 029 036 002 00
131130 1402N 05722W 9773 00306 0121 +222 +208 130029 029 034 003 00
131200 1400N 05724W 9768 00311 0122 +213 +205 129031 032 032 000 03
131230 1359N 05725W 9774 00305 0124 +197 //// 126031 032 033 001 05
131300 1358N 05727W 9770 00310 0123 +214 +197 124029 030 035 002 03
131330 1357N 05728W 9766 00313 0123 +227 +192 133021 025 032 003 03
131400 1355N 05730W 9769 00311 0122 +235 +191 123018 020 025 000 00
131430 1354N 05731W 9770 00311 0123 +234 +194 138015 017 021 000 03
131500 1353N 05733W 9772 00309 0122 +238 +198 145015 016 016 001 03
131530 1352N 05734W 9771 00308 0120 +235 +204 141017 017 016 000 03
131600 1350N 05736W 9770 00308 0120 +237 +209 144017 018 015 000 03
131630 1349N 05737W 9773 00304 0118 +237 +213 154015 017 017 000 03
131700 1348N 05739W 9769 00308 0118 +236 +216 151017 018 014 000 03
131730 1347N 05740W 9772 00305 0118 +235 +219 152016 017 014 000 03
131800 1346N 05742W 9769 00308 0118 +234 +221 148015 016 014 000 03
131830 1344N 05743W 9772 00306 0118 +239 +221 148016 017 014 000 03
131900 1343N 05744W 9770 00306 0117 +239 +221 147015 016 018 000 03
131930 1342N 05746W 9769 00307 0117 +239 +222 146014 015 017 000 03
132000 1341N 05747W 9769 00309 0117 +240 +224 147016 018 018 000 03
132030 1339N 05749W 9770 00306 0118 +235 +225 143014 015 018 000 00
$$
;





At 13:11:00Z (first observation), the observation was 166 miles (267 km) to the ENE (66°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 13:20:30Z (last observation), the observation was 127 miles (204 km) to the ENE (72°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

[Dean4Storms]

Appears the Lower Level is outrunning the mid level and thus no closed surface circulation gets established. Should begin to slow as it nears the SW extent of the ridging and then I would expect pretty rapid organization tomorrow.

[artist]

can anyone pick up the images?

[artist]

000
UZNT13 KNHC 011029
XXAA 51104 99170 70631 04373 99012 28042 05522 00109 27039 06022
92795 21617 07025 85526 19060 08521 70172 10269 06020 50589 04778
07511 40761 15761 06015 88999 77999
31313 09608 80951
61616 AF304 03EEA INVEST OB 02
62626 SPL 1696N06311W 1002 MBL WND 06022 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06519
012376 WL150 06023 084 REL 1698N06306W 095109 SPG 1696N06311W 100
206 =
XXBB 51108 99170 70631 04373 00012 28042 11903 20211 22864 19033
33850 19060 44831 19270 55817 18062 66811 18067 77787 17269 88759
14865 99719 12272 11673 08265 22665 08269 33647 06858 44627 04457
55613 04084 66568 02095 77500 04779 88494 05563 99487 06365 11483
06559 22469 07964 33448 10156 44376 18562
21212 00012 05522 11945 06521 22889 07528 33867 08527 44850 08521
55702 06020 66686 07023 77668 05528 88597 04013 99571 06515 11556
04011 22531 08007 33507 09010 44499 07511 55482 09015 66455 07514
77437 05013 88410 05518 99376 04503
31313 09608 80951
61616 AF304 03EEA INVEST OB 02
62626 SPL 1696N06311W 1002 MBL WND 06022 AEV 20802 DLM WND 06519
012376 WL150 06023 084 REL 1698N06306W 095109 SPG 1696N06311W 100
206 =
;

[Bocadude85]

I wonder if this may be one of those systems that just can not ever get its act together?

[dwsqos2]

I want someone to list the storms that dissipated shortly after interaction with Hispanola. Seriously, give me a list. I know Olga '07 and Oddette '03, but they also contended with ripping upper level winds. I define dissipation not as severe weakening ala David, but as last advisory/last postion in best track shortly after crossing, no subsequent regeneration.

I know how high mountains disrupt circulations. But you want find many absolute dissipations.

[plasticup]

What would you say the threat level of a landfall is for New England on a scale of 1 to 10 is with 10 being the highest?

It is possible, but no more likely than with most storms. We are more than a week away from any potential US landfall and with the system still undeveloped it is VERY hard to predict its course.

[Frank2]

Hurricane David (1979) was the worst example - it was a strong Cat 4 when it moved over Hispanola (and killed 2,000 people) and was a TS when it emerged on the NW side of the island, but never did regain it's former strength...

There was panic here in South Florida over what David's potential could do (no thanks to The Miami Herald for a fictionalized "it could happen one day" article that caused the panic), but fortunately it was nothing more than an overcast and breezy day, David having moved northward 100 miles to the east...

So, what Man creates in his mind and what God permits in reality are often two very different things, thankfully...

Frank

[capepoint]

There was a CINDY back in the 80's or 90's that formed about where this mess is now, but died when it hit Hispaniola. Pretty sure there were others, but that one I know.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011331
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 27 20110801
132100 1338N 05750W 9771 00308 0119 +228 +226 142014 015 023 001 03
132130 1337N 05752W 9770 00307 0119 +238 +225 145015 016 019 000 03
132200 1336N 05753W 9769 00310 0120 +237 +223 138016 017 018 000 03
132230 1334N 05755W 9772 00307 0120 +240 +223 144016 017 017 000 03
132300 1333N 05756W 9770 00308 0119 +239 +223 140015 016 012 000 03
132330 1332N 05758W 9770 00308 0119 +240 +224 144015 016 014 000 03
132400 1330N 05758W 9770 00309 0119 +240 +226 159017 019 /// /// 03
132430 1330N 05756W 9768 00311 0119 +239 +227 165020 021 016 000 03
132500 1330N 05754W 9770 00309 0120 +239 +228 164020 020 017 000 03
132530 1330N 05752W 9770 00309 0120 +239 +228 162019 019 015 000 03
132600 1330N 05750W 9768 00311 0120 +239 +229 166019 020 017 000 03
132630 1330N 05748W 9774 00307 0120 +240 +229 166020 020 016 000 03
132700 1330N 05747W 9771 00308 0121 +239 +229 166019 020 017 000 03
132730 1330N 05745W 9769 00310 0121 +240 +229 166020 020 017 000 00
132800 1330N 05743W 9776 00305 0121 +240 +230 165020 020 018 000 00
132830 1330N 05741W 9769 00312 0122 +238 +230 165020 020 019 000 03
132900 1330N 05739W 9773 00307 0122 +238 +230 160020 020 021 000 03
132930 1330N 05737W 9766 00314 0122 +239 +229 158020 021 019 000 00
133000 1330N 05735W 9766 00314 0123 +240 +228 156021 021 020 000 03
133030 1330N 05733W 9773 00311 0123 +240 +228 158021 023 020 000 03
$$
At 13:21:00Z (first observation), the observation was 125 miles (202 km) to the ENE (73°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 13:30:30Z (last observation), the observation was 142 miles (228 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from Bridgetown, Barbados

[Bocadude85]

Hurricane David (1979) was the worst example - it was a strong Cat 4 when it moved over Hispanola (and killed 2,000 people) and was a TS when it emerged on the NW side of the island, but never did regain it's former strength...

There was panic here in South Florida over what David's potential could do (no thanks to The Miami Herald for a fictionalized "it could happen one day" article that caused the panic), but fortunately it was nothing more than an overcast an breezy day, David having moved northward 100 miles to the east...

Frank

Hurricane Jeanne spent over 24 on Hispanola and still went on to become a major hurricane.
Hurricane Georges also traveled the full length of Hispanola

[artist]

000
URNT11 KNHC 011331
97779 13254 20135 57910 03000 16019 24238 /0012
41615
RMK AF304 03EEA INVEST OB 09
SWS = 15 KTS;

[KWT]

Yeah but david was still a hurricane frank, think a category 2? Not sure se Florida wants a category 2 system threatening? Worth noting nearly all models strengthen this near the Bahamas, some alot.

[Mouton]

Recent Canadian run now shows it in the eastern GOM after passing through the Keys. I think this was the first model to pick this up last week, if not the first, one of the first. It has been trending west since Friday.

GFS has a storm in SEFlorida and has been trending west also.

Still, not a named storm by NHC and from what I see, they have been correct to not pull the trigger too early.

I have been concerned about a Frances 2004 track since last week and nothing yet has changed my view.

[capepoint]

thunderstorm over my house last night showed more organization and had higher winds than this mess does.....starting to doubt that anything gets going with Emily-wannabe until it can get clear of the islands.

The above is the opinion of a rank amature and should no way be considered as anything more than hot air. Consult smart people for real forcasts, not me.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I believe it became a cat 1 before it made landfall around Jupiter, Fl. It was something like 80 miles per hour or so.