ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[dwsqos2]

No, David is not an example of dissipation. David regenerated after the crossing and became rather deep again. David produced hurricane force wind gusts at Melbourne.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/hurdat/mwr_pdf/1979.pdf

Weakening doesn't count; I mean dissipation.

I found one from 1963; but this is pre-1978, and it was weakening long before its approach to Hispanola, so upper-level winds might have played a role as well.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

[tolakram]

CMC just wants to hit New Orleans, it's the old bias coming back. This would be funny only if you were familiar with the CMC before the last upgrade.

[Bocadude85]

I am still not 100% convinced this will be a Florida problem. If the models are still pointing this way after the system develops then I will be a little more worried.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Future Emily (at least its expected to be) is one complicated and dramatic system... but then again, girls are complicated so no surprise there.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm shocked that there aren't even any hits of a surface circulation. Not even a NNW or SSW wind. This storm is going to make my head explode.

[gatorcane]

Kudos to the ECMWF for not developing this system into anything significant........
and I think it was able to figure out the multiple blob scenario that helped thwart development.

Dry air is progressively getting into the system now.

It looks like the system is struggling. I may have to downgrade to 60% if trends continue but will hold at 90% for now out of respect for the GFDL.

A win for the ECMWF, maybe.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011340
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 28 20110801
133100 1330N 05731W 9770 00313 0125 +240 +228 157021 022 020 000 03
133130 1330N 05730W 9777 00306 0125 +240 +228 155022 023 022 000 03
133200 1330N 05728W 9768 00317 0126 +240 +229 155022 023 020 000 03
133230 1330N 05726W 9766 00318 0126 +240 +229 151022 022 021 000 00
133300 1330N 05724W 9772 00313 0126 +240 +229 151022 023 021 000 03
133330 1330N 05722W 9772 00314 0127 +240 +230 151022 023 022 000 03
133400 1330N 05720W 9774 00312 0127 +240 +230 148022 022 023 000 03
133430 1330N 05718W 9766 00319 0128 +240 +230 150022 022 022 000 03
133500 1330N 05717W 9774 00312 0127 +240 +230 151024 025 023 000 03
133530 1330N 05715W 9769 00318 0128 +240 +230 151023 023 024 000 03
133600 1330N 05713W 9771 00315 0128 +240 +230 150023 024 023 000 03
133630 1330N 05711W 9768 00318 0128 +240 +230 150023 024 023 000 03
133700 1330N 05709W 9768 00320 0129 +240 +230 148023 024 023 000 03
133730 1330N 05707W 9764 00323 0129 +240 +230 146022 023 025 000 03
133800 1330N 05706W 9777 00309 0129 +232 +230 140021 022 026 001 03
133830 1330N 05704W 9773 00315 0128 +234 +229 131025 027 031 000 03
133900 1330N 05702W 9764 00322 0128 +235 +226 136025 026 030 000 03
133930 1330N 05700W 9774 00312 0128 +240 +224 136027 027 031 000 03
134000 1330N 05658W 9770 00317 0129 +235 +223 136027 027 030 000 03
134030 1330N 05657W 9773 00315 0129 +238 +223 136026 026 030 000 03
$$
;

At 13:31:00Z (first observation), the observation was 144 miles (231 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 13:40:30Z (last observation), the observation was 181 miles (292 km) to the E (81°) from Bridgetown, Barbados

[Bocadude85]

Not looking that great this morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[Frank2]

Well, it's a 50-50 issue - some did weaken or dissipate and some didn't - at least one factor is how long it spends over the mountains...

David spend a long time over the island (the steering currents were weak) and that caused it to weaken from a strong Cat 4 to a TS, and though as said it did regain some strength by my clear recollection (I was working at the HRD a few months later), it never did regain the intensity seen in the Caribbean, and the thinking was the many hours it spent over the island had a great deal to do with that...

Originally the NHC feared it would quickly move over the island and not weaken very much, but as the hours passed it became clear that it was not to be and when recon checked it after the center emerged in the Atlantic, it was found that winds had dropped to 70 - down from 145...

As others said it finally made landfall in Melbourne (FL) as a Cat 1 and did some damage, but less than was seen in the hurricanes of 2004 and 2005...

Frank

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Abnormal ionospheric heating continues due to solar activity.

It is becoming apparent to me that this effect is pushing down on the circulation of 91L and inhibiting development.

Hmmm related?

Space Weather News for July 30, 2011
http://spaceweather.com

Solar and geomagnetic activity continues to intensify on July 30th. The day began with an almost-X class solar flare from big sunspot 1261. This was followed by an unrelated geomagnetic storm (magnitude Kp=5) prompted by a fluctuation in the solar wind. At the time this alert is being issued (July 30th @ 2200 UT) the geomagnetic storm is still underway. High-latitude sky watchers, especially in the southern hemisphere where skies are winter-dark, should be alert for auroras.

I've never bought into the possibility that solar weather affects terrestrial weather, but I do have an open mind. Has there been any studies or actual research done into any correlations with these?

I would imagine if the tropopause is being depressed the effect would be to generally lower heights.

[gatorcane]

Not looking that great this morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Not it is not looking well. I am close to lowering my percentage down to 60 to 70% if trends continue. Let's see how it goes over the next 6 hours or so because these things just take time....

Still think we will see Emily by tomorrow AM, but starting to really wonder....

[HurricaneWarning92]

Not looking that great this morning...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

not looking great at all imo. it seems like its shrinking in size...

[KWT]

Gatorcane, let's wait a little while yet, you've been a little too quick calling wins in recent times could well be right, all models strengthen north of the islands either way.

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, let's wait a little while yet, you've been a little too quick calling wins in recent times could well be right, all models strengthen north of the islands either way.

I agree with you, I still see Emily before all is said and done though.

[artist]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011351
AF304 03EEA INVEST HDOB 29 20110801
134100 1330N 05655W 9769 00319 0129 +239 +223 141027 028 028 000 03
134130 1330N 05653W 9773 00316 0130 +236 +224 138026 027 028 001 03
134200 1330N 05651W 9768 00320 0131 +240 +224 136025 025 027 000 03
134230 1330N 05649W 9772 00317 0131 +240 +224 138025 027 029 000 00
134300 1330N 05648W 9772 00318 0131 +240 +225 141027 028 028 000 03
134330 1330N 05646W 9770 00320 0131 +240 +225 139028 028 025 000 03
134400 1330N 05644W 9769 00319 0130 +240 +226 143027 027 025 000 03
134430 1330N 05642W 9774 00315 0130 +240 +226 143027 028 023 000 03
134500 1330N 05640W 9765 00323 0131 +240 +226 141024 025 023 000 03
134530 1330N 05639W 9774 00315 0131 +237 +225 140025 026 025 000 03
134600 1330N 05637W 9766 00322 0132 +236 +225 137024 025 024 000 03
134630 1330N 05635W 9773 00317 0132 +237 +224 136025 025 025 000 03
134700 1330N 05633W 9769 00320 0131 +240 +223 132025 025 023 000 03
134730 1331N 05632W 9768 00321 0131 +236 +223 131027 028 /// /// 03
134800 1333N 05632W 9771 00319 0132 +231 +223 122026 027 /// /// 03
134830 1333N 05634W 9774 00316 0132 +232 +222 116027 028 /// /// 03
134900 1334N 05636W 9766 00323 0132 +237 +221 119029 030 021 000 03
134930 1335N 05638W 9775 00315 0132 +235 +221 119030 030 024 000 03
135000 1336N 05640W 9764 00324 0132 +233 +220 120029 030 024 000 03
135030 1338N 05641W 9770 00318 0132 +236 +220 121030 031 027 001 03
$$
;

At 13:41:00Z (first observation), the observation was 183 miles (295 km) to the E (81°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.
At 13:50:30Z (last observation), the observation was 201 miles (323 km) between the ENE and E (79°) from Bridgetown, Barbados.

[KWT]

Low level flow just isn't allowing anything to get going... Normally these DO develop but my word it takes a while! Dolly took nearly a week to finally do it in 2008, very similar issue as 91l

[Macrocane]

I may be alone in this thinking but IMO it looks better than yesterday, actually much better it has more banding, its only one blob this time and rotation is more evident I know it seems to be at mid levels but it's more evident than in previous days.

[Bocadude85]

Low level flow just isn't allowing anything to get going... Normally these DO develop but my word it takes a while! Dolly took nearly a week to finally do it in 2008, very similar issue as 91l

I will say the system appears to have slowed down a little bit

[tolakram]

VIS Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Convection seems to have stopped, or at least no towers at the moment. I also think shear has increased, note the deformation of the cirrus.

[AdamFirst]

Patience is a dirty word on this forum, isn't it?

This storm will get its act together sooner or later. Or maybe it won't. That's the nature of the beast. What I'm seeing is a strong tropical wave that's on the brink but hasn't taken the next step yet (MLC burrowing down to make a LLC). I don't see any "weakening" or anything of that sort.