ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[CrazyC83]

Those in the islands should still treat this as a tropical storm, since Recon found winds of such.

[SFLcane]

ABNT20 KNHC 011423
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

[AdamFirst]

All we know is that if an LLC is found, it is Emily immediately as Recon supports 35-40 kt.

I haven't seen winds that strong? Where did they have 40+ knot flight level winds?

Recon had several readings at 39 knots flight level, but I didn't see any over 40.

[ConvergenceZone]

Hehe, yea all of this talk of where the storm may or may not go, and for all we know, based on present conditions,
we may not end up with a storm at all.....

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Ahh 91L approaches "The Graveyard". I think her chance of significant development has passed for now.

(edit: added disclaimer)

[MGC]

91L looks a bit less organized this morning. Guess we might have to wait a bit longer for a TC to form. I think the 90% probability is too high, I'd put it at 50%. If 91L don't form a surface circulation I think we will have to wait for the disturbance to reach the middle part of the Carb Sea to get going. Should head generally westward with the low level flow.......MGC

[HurricaneWarning92]

All we know is that if an LLC is found, it is Emily immediately as Recon supports 35-40 kt.

I haven't seen winds that strong? Where did they have 40+ knot flight level winds?

Recon had several readings at 39 knots flight level, but I didn't see any over 40.

Either way, those are tropical storm force wind.

[AdamFirst]

"Graveyard"?

As far as I'm concerned we haven't seen anything yet.

You guys seem to be pretty spurned at this system since it didn't develop over the weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

Ahh 91L approaches "The Graveyard". I think her chance of significant development has passed for now.

well typically the eastern carrib is the grave yard because the easterly flow is too strong to maintain a westerly wind. but the flow in the carrib is lower than the atlantic, thus convergence should only increase as the system enters.

[plasticup]

Good morning.......with this system with slower to evolve to the next level....how much more westward can it track? Does a northward track seem less likely in your minds? Which model seems most consistent so far.

The early northerly recurve is less likely the longer this goes before development. You can see that trend in the models.

[stormreader]

Recent Canadian run now shows it in the eastern GOM after passing through the Keys. I think this was the first model to pick this up last week, if not the first, one of the first. It has been trending west since Friday.

GFS has a storm in SEFlorida and has been trending west also.

Still, not a named storm by NHC and from what I see, they have been correct to not pull the trigger too early.

I have been concerned about a Frances 2004 track since last week and nothing yet has changed my view.

Since yesterday afternoon I think the percentages have been growing that this will eventually be an E GOM storm (posted that Sun afternoon). Storm is forecast to be more south and west than earlier as it makes its approach to US. When storm finally does begin to feel the definite pull of the trough up north, its liable to something of a more gradual turn (somewhere near the keys-everglades) and then a more pronounced turn north in the E GOM to near the Big-Bend or panhandle area of Fl. Just the opinion of an amateur.

[JPmia]

Well the TC development probability percentages depend on whether or not they use 24hrs or 48hrs.. it could be that 50% chance within 24hrs and 90% chance within 48hrs.

[Frank2]

My guess (guess) is that it won't become Emily (today is probably the make or break day for 91L) but time will tell...

It's just too disorganized and aside from a few days ago when it appeared healthy, has not since then and as others said the eastern Caribbean is not conducive to helping weak systems to form...

Frank

[hurricanefloyd5]

what is the threat level for this to hit the D.R. as emily?

[Aric Dunn]

There is actually one noteworthy thing about today vs yesterday. the orientation of the gyre is NNE to SSW which is a much more conducive position to see something develop at the surface vs the east west from yesterday. IT just means the football is tumbling which intern means more vorticity.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

Ahh 91L approaches "The Graveyard". I think her chance of significant development has passed for now.

well typically the eastern carrib is the grave yard because the easterly flow is too strong to maintain a westerly wind. but the flow in the carrib is lower than the atlantic, thus convergence should only increase as the system enters.

That is excellent news for development. (BTW Not a naysayer myself, just looking at her right now, and the history of the area into which she enters - The Graveyard). Many a storm has been sheared apart, stopped in her/his tracks, and obliterated by the hostile Eastern Carribean.

[rockyman]

After studying the visible loops this morning, it appears the main low level vorticity is centered right on the south coast of Barbados...with the mid-level circulation tilted to the northeast...I anticipate that these competing centers will "meet in the middle" later today. Here is a rough drawing of my idea:

[MGC]

I think the models will continue to shift to the left until a defined low level center forms. Have observed this many times.....MGC

[Fego]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE

[JPmia]

I think the models will continue to shift to the left until a defined low level center forms. Have observed this many times.....MGC

I agree.. we've seen this many times. I remember Ivan pulling the same tricks.