Caribbean - Central America Weather

[msbee]

If you look at the google earth models the majority of the models that are clustered close together as of now show it to be Dominica. From there the next area of concentration for landfall seems to be the Tuna Point area of PR which is the SE coast, next to us here in Vieques.

Mind you these are the google earth models and the heaviest concentration of models in agreement to the path.

Thanks knotimpaired

Barbara

[msbee]

looks like the leading front is approaching the more southern Caribbean islands

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

[Gustywind]

looks like the leading front is approaching the more southern Caribbean islands

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

http://www.stormcarib.com/reports/current/stlucia.shtml

You're right and looks like another wave in the same perturbed area, surprising? meaning that 91L is always in vicinity of the islands, let's continue to be on our guard.

[cycloneye]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1230 PM AST SUN JUL 31 2011

.UPDATE...ISOLATED AND LIGHT PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS THIS MORNING...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OBSERVED OVER LAND. NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST AS WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE
WATERS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
IN THE AFTERNOON FOR THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PUERTO
RICO.

AS FAR AS THE TROPICS GO...A WIND SURGE HAS DETACHED A PORTION OF
WHAT ONCE THOUGHT TO BE PART OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. NOW THE
TROPICAL WAVE BEING OBSERVED FOR DEVELOPMENT IS BEHIND THIS SURGE.
HOWEVER...THIS SURGE AHEAD OF THE WAVE SEEMS TO HAVE DEEPER
CONVECTION THAN THE WAVE ITSELF.

BUOY 41040 HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 29 MPH ...GUSTS
AROUND 34 MPH AND SEAS CLOSE TO 12 FT. THIS DATA WAS RECORDED AS
THE DETACHED PORTION OF THE WAVE WENT THROUGH THE BUOY.
ALSO...BUOY 41101 EAST OF MARTINIQUE HAS REPORTED SIMILAR VALUES
WITH A MAX SUSTAINED WIND OF 26 MPH AND GUST OF 30 MPH WITH SEAS
OF AROUND 10 FT.

THE ACTUAL SYSTEM THAT COULD BE CATEGORIZED AS A DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY SEEMS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT WITH ITS ORGANIZATION.
HOWEVER...AS IT GETS CLOSER TO OUR AREA...IT WILL BE OVER MORE
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER STATED THAT IT COULD BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANY TIME
NOW. WE WILL KNOW MORE WITH THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT DATA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRACK THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA...MAYBE SLIGHTLY NORTH ON THE 12Z RUN THAN
THE 06Z RUN. THE 12Z RUN HOWEVER HAS SEVERAL MODELS TRACKING THE
CYCLONE JUST OVER PUERTO RICO...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND PONCE AND EXITING THROUGH AGUADILLA...WITH
AN INTENSITY OF A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR A WEAKER HURRICANE.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AND ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 575
MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF THIS BROAD
DISTURBANCE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION
CENTER. IF THE LOW BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS DEVELOPING SYSTEM.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[msbee]

I feel like I have been watching this system for ever.

It's going to be on top of some of us and over some of us before NHC decides what it is

[Macrocane]

Wow, there's a lot of uncertainty with 91L it's kind of worrying and annoying to watch a system like that.

Changing the subject, moderate to heavy rains were registered in El Salvador yesterday afternoon and night, these are some of the accumulations:

Ataco 73.8 mm/2.91 inches
Ilopango 60 mm/2.36 inches
San Francisco Gotera 41 mm/1.61 inches
Ishuatan 45.6 mm/1.80 inches
San Salvador 35 mm/1.38 inches

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.

UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA
RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT
...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE
THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED
TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/FRANKLIN

[msbee]

Thanks Luis
So we continue to watch and wait

[cycloneye]

The PR authorities had a conference to talk about the preparations just in case this system strikes the island.Place cursor over the information to see translation to english.

http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... 28592.html

[cycloneye]

90%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY...
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Macrocane]

Today near normal lows were registered in all Central America, near normal highs were experienced in Panama and Costa Rica and cooler than normal highs in the rest of the region.

Minimum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 24°C (75°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 20.2°C (68.4°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 17°C (63°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 9.8°C (49.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 23°C (73°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 20.3°C (68.5°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 12.2°C (54.0°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 22.7°C (72.9°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 19°C (66°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 14°C (57°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 23°C (73°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 23°C (73°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 19°C (66°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 17.7°C (63.9°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 22.9°C (73.2°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 6.1°C (43.0°F)
Panama city, Panama 21.8°C (71.2°F)
Boquete, Panama 13.8°C (56.8°F)

Maximum Temperatures
Belize city, Belize 30°C (86°F)
Mountain Pine Ridge, Belize 25.9°C (78.6°F)
Guatemala city, Guatemala 24°C (75°F)
Quetzaltenango, Guatemala 20.9°C (69.6°F)
Zacapa, Guatemala 32°C (90°F)
San Salvador, El Salvador 28.7°C (83.7°F)
Las Pilas, El Salvador 19.9°C (67.8°F)
San Miguel, El Salvador 31.8°C (89.2°F)
Tegucigalpa, Honduras 26°C (79°F)
La Esperanza, Honduras 21°C (70°F)
Choluteca, Honduras 31°C (88°F)
Managua, Nicaragua 31°C (88°F)
Jinotega, Nicaragua 24°C (75°F)
San Jose, Costa Rica 27.2°C (81.0°F)
Liberia, Costa Rica 31.6°C (88.9°F)
Irazu volcano, Costa Rica 17.9°C (64.2°F)
Panama city, Panama 31.1°C (88.0°F)
Boquete, Panama 20.2°C (68.4°F)

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC OCEAN IS
PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 350
MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL
STORM COULD FORM IN THIS AREA LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. IF
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO
INVESTIGATE THE AREA THIS MORNING. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[cycloneye]

This mornings discussion by Rob of Crown Weather

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST
OF MARTINIQUE IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF IMPROVED ORGANIZATION...AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH.
A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE
DISTURBANCE TO DETERMINE IF IT HAS A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE
CIRCULATION CENTER. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE
TODAY...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY
SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[cycloneye]

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY... TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

[msbee]

still no Emily and that's a good thing

[cycloneye]

still no Emily and that's a good thing

Yes Barbara,is good news,but still until it moves away from the Lesser Antilles,we have to continue to watch it just in case.However,it may not be good for folks downstream like DR/Haiti/Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas and maybe Florida.

[msbee]

yes, I know Luis. It looks now like it will pass south of PR though, right?

[cycloneye]

yes, I know Luis. It looks now like it will pass south of PR though, right?

At this time,it looks that way.