ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Javlin]

I think the models will continue to shift to the left until a defined low level center forms. Have observed this many times.....MGC

I have to agree just looked at the loops of the models and they for the most part go NW almost right off the bat.This system has not done that in almost a week and has been on what a 280-290 heading for the last 4-5 days.It's Don redux at this point.It's about to hit the graveyard and yes I know Mr Ortt hated that name

[Evil Jeremy]

That plot is from last night. Current plot is less recurvy. Eirher way, recurve or not, florida is part of this now.

That's because it hasn't developed. Don't get TOO excited there for some action. Now..assuming you wanna see how this whole thing turns out (like me) you need to be getting VERY worried because if this doesn't start getting it's act together, and soon, SFL will likely be out of the ballgame.

It has now become a matter of timing. Very exciting time to be a weather enthusiast.

I'm not getting too excited about anything. I pointed out trends in the models, how Florida was now in the model cross chairs. Simple observations, which for some reason you think was me spreading misinformation. SFL might be out of the ballgame later, but the fact is, it is in the game now. You don't want to accept that for whatever reason, but you need to realize that the models are currently pointing at SFL. I'm not -removed-. I am observing.

That plot is from last night. Current plot is less recurvy. Eirher way, recurve or not, florida is part of this now.

For now.. the longer this system takes to pull together the further west it will go. Could just continue west and slam into Central America.

Exactly, FL might just be involved for now, but that's no reason to rule it out.

[Frank2]

NON-DEVELOPMENT BY SOME MODELS LEAD TOWARD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIB. A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND
THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED

At least the models are also 50-50, so it's not just a few of us here (lol)...

P.S. Katrina was a pretty sure thing when it came towards Florida, though what surprised everyone was the intensity - it was strengtening even as it moved across South Florida. Not sure if the poster was referring to Katrina, though perhaps those posts are deep in the S2K archives - it'd make interesting reading...

[jlauderdal]

NON-DEVELOPMENT BY SOME MODELS LEAD TOWARD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES
MOVING W ACROSS THE CARIB. A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AND
THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE MONITORED

At least the models are also 50-50, so it's not just a few of us here (lol)...

P.S. Katrina was a pretty sure thing when it came towards Florida, though what surprised everyone was the intensity - it was strengtening even as it moved across South Florida. Not sure if the poster was referring to Katrina, though perhaps those posts are deep in the S2K archives - it'd make interesting reading...

gfdl was the only one to sniff out the strength of the ridge which sent katrina south as it approached SE FLA

[Frank2]

Right, once it came towards Miami then it was pretty settled that it would be a Gulf problem, though true before that there was some confusion...

I really don't recall that time for whatever reason, though do remember that I left for Sebring that afternoon...

Frank

[Aric Dunn]

well convection somewhat limited is starting firing with the vort that is moving west away from the MLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

[Frank2]

Java loops are no longer supported by NOAA...

[artist]

403PA 403rd Wing
#HurricaneHunters are investigating low pressure system 300mi E of Martinique--showing signs of organization. A TD could form later today.

[HouTXmetro]

I know it's not the same set up but sort of reminds me of Ike when he edefied the models and kept trucking west.

[Aric Dunn]

Java loops are no longer supported by NOAA...

so .. they still work better than flash..

[Gustywind]

Banding trying to form in the northern part of 91L?

[Bocadude85]

Looks like convection is starting to pop again

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html

[Aric Dunn]

Going to be watching if the wind switching at Dominica later as that vort passes..

[ROCK]

still looks messy...but will come together IMO but how far west is the key....

[ROCK]

I know it's not the same set up but sort of reminds me of Ike when he edefied the models and kept trucking west.

It was the EURO who sniffed out IKE's missing the trof connection and went GOM bound....cant wait to see it later today.....might be the CMC is sniffing it with 91L...

[Aric Dunn]

Going to be watching if the wind switching at Dominica later as that vort passes..

well one report from Dominica already has a NW wind...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDCF.html

good sign..??

[KWT]

well convection somewhat limited is starting firing with the vort that is moving west away from the MLC

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

Yeah thats interesrting, the thing is messy on the organisational feront BUT it has all the key features you'd expect a developing TC to have.

So still think its more a matter of time, I'd still think there is only a small chance it never develops, its going to get going at some point, just when...

[underthwx]

looks like its already TS Emily on that sat pic Gustywind provided

[KWT]

The MLc is circulation like a good'un, a good sign tyhat conditions aloft there are pretty good, its the low level flow that is causing such big problems, it needs to really slow down if this system is going to get stacked in any decent way.

All the while it keeps on tracking near due west.

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has reformed to the west of the LLC and 91L will be tracking into it.

Might be worth mentioning the ionospheric anomaly disappeared about an hour ago.