ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Blown Away]

they are flying through the vort now.. it looks like..

Exactly, not sure where else they would fly??

[RL3AO]

061
URNT15 KNHC 011716
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 07 20110801
170600 1535N 05947W 9765 00290 0096 +230 +097 111035 037 038 003 00
170630 1534N 05946W 9768 00287 0095 +235 +101 113034 035 038 002 03
170700 1533N 05945W 9771 00284 0095 +234 +106 113034 035 036 001 00
170730 1533N 05944W 9770 00286 0095 +233 +110 116035 036 035 002 00
170800 1533N 05943W 9769 00285 0094 +237 +114 118036 036 036 000 00
170830 1532N 05941W 9772 00283 0095 +238 +118 115036 036 035 002 00
170900 1532N 05940W 9769 00287 0095 +238 +123 113035 035 033 001 00
170930 1532N 05939W 9771 00285 0095 +238 +127 111035 036 033 001 00
171000 1532N 05937W 9769 00286 0096 +235 +131 111034 035 032 002 00
171030 1532N 05936W 9774 00283 0096 +234 +135 113035 036 034 000 00
171100 1531N 05935W 9772 00285 0097 +232 +138 118033 035 034 000 03
171130 1531N 05934W 9763 00293 0098 +222 +139 114030 032 034 005 03
171200 1530N 05933W 9773 00284 0098 +213 +139 109029 032 034 005 00
171230 1529N 05932W 9755 00300 0098 +218 +136 114030 032 032 002 00
171300 1528N 05931W 9707 00344 0099 +211 +133 117030 032 035 004 00
171330 1527N 05930W 9778 00279 0098 +214 +131 120029 030 034 004 00
171400 1526N 05929W 9758 00296 0097 +223 +129 117030 031 035 003 00
171430 1525N 05928W 9757 00298 0097 +223 +129 119028 029 032 005 00
171500 1524N 05927W 9760 00296 0097 +221 +130 120027 030 030 005 00
171530 1523N 05926W 9765 00291 0097 +229 +131 121029 030 032 005 00
$$
;

Nothing there.

[underthwx]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 011423
TWOAT

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1025 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES EAST OF
MARTINIQUE CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM
THIS MORNING DETERMINED THAT THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT HAVE A CLOSED
SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER. THE AIRCRAFT DID FIND WINDS OF NEAR
TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A TROPICAL STORM TO FORM
LATER TODAY OR TOMORROW. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 15 MPH. ANOTHER HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE THIS
AFTERNOON. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT
NOTICE. INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[AdamFirst]

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

It's kinda scary as to how long this is taking to develop. Unless residents on the islands already know about this, they will have mere hours to prepare if it is classified.

I hate to make broad generalizations, but folks in the islands know of the storm. They don't usually wait for our NHC to decide she needs a name, in order to prep. I have flocks of emails today from our interests in Trinidad, Grenada, Curacao, etc talking about how it was already too far north of them (and these are computer folks, not usually weather nuts).

In the Carribean, preparing for CAT2 and below means getting beer and water, and making sure the yard is clean (at least thats how my Jamaican colleague put it).

In any event, its front page news in St. Kitts

http://www.sknvibes.com/news/

[KWT]

CMC looks very interesting, once again goes into the gulf, probably not a bad call at this moment.

models also trending stronger with the upper ridging, 12z GFS actually briefly develops a true upper ridge, hence the increase in heights seen on the models around 120hrs.

[Aric Dunn]

well half of the previous set they were not at operational some one map it.. please

looks like they flew on the east side only of the vort.. hence all the ne TO east to SE winds

[KWT]

recon seems to suggest nothing at theb surface on the western system, or if there is its pretty small...

Man what a messy system, just can't seem to latch anything to the surface. Still that western area does look interesting...

[Aric Dunn]

recon seems to suggest nothing at theb surface on the western system, or if there is its pretty small...

Man what a messy system, just can't seem to latch anything to the surface. Still that western area does look interesting...

they flew on only the east side of the vort.. so the winds fit .. started NE then E .. then SE..

they found plenty of TS winds too

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Eastern part looks like it is a close, imo, to being a TD now (finally).

[KWT]

they flew on only the east side of the vort.. so the winds fit .. started NE then E .. then SE..

they found plenty of TS winds too

Well hopefully on the way back they can have a look at the southern part of that area see if anything is there...

They seem pretty keen on that MLC despite it clearly not doing anything at the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

Eastern part looks like it is a close, imo, to being a TD now (finally).

yeah, if they can find a west wind.. it would likely go to TS there are plenty of TS winds with the last two hdobs

[Blown Away]

IMO, a significant bump in latitude to @15.3N from 12z position of 13.9N. This may allow 91L to skim the N coast of Hispaniola rather than going through it.

[KWT]

BA, don't think it makes any difference given the area is heading close to due west...and also the fact its further west as well so overall the latitude difference whilst present is somewhat voided out b y the longitude gain as well.

[Ivanhater]

Ivan....when you see the CMC barking up the same tree on consecutive runs and if the EURO follows here in a few then it might not be a bad track......funny all the talk of recurve has left the building...

Oh it still might recurve....right into the Gulf

[StormClouds63]

How much shear and dry air is this system currently under?

[RL3AO]

497
URNT15 KNHC 011726
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 08 20110801
171600 1522N 05925W 9760 00296 0097 +219 +132 120030 031 033 004 00
171630 1521N 05924W 9758 00297 0097 +223 +133 123028 029 032 006 00
171700 1520N 05923W 9763 00293 0097 +227 +134 122031 031 033 007 00
171730 1519N 05922W 9760 00295 0097 +229 +135 123028 030 032 008 00
171800 1518N 05921W 9761 00294 0097 +220 +136 118028 028 031 008 00
171830 1517N 05920W 9757 00298 0096 +230 +136 114029 029 031 006 00
171900 1516N 05919W 9761 00294 0095 +239 +138 115029 030 029 003 00
171930 1515N 05919W 9760 00294 0094 +234 +142 113025 027 026 004 00
172000 1514N 05918W 9762 00293 0096 +224 +145 117028 030 031 007 00
172030 1513N 05917W 9761 00294 0096 +218 +147 121031 033 035 004 00
172100 1512N 05916W 9764 00290 0096 +216 +147 121032 032 035 005 00
172130 1511N 05915W 9757 00297 0095 +228 +147 125031 032 032 002 00
172200 1510N 05914W 9760 00294 0095 +231 +147 129031 031 033 001 00
172230 1509N 05913W 9761 00295 0096 +230 +150 132030 031 033 000 00
172300 1508N 05912W 9760 00296 0096 +230 +153 136029 030 032 001 00
172330 1508N 05911W 9760 00295 0097 +229 +157 133030 031 034 002 00
172400 1507N 05910W 9761 00294 0097 +228 +159 134030 031 034 001 00
172430 1506N 05909W 9758 00298 0098 +226 +161 128035 036 033 003 00
172500 1505N 05908W 9758 00298 0098 +226 +162 127035 035 033 001 00
172530 1504N 05907W 9760 00297 0098 +226 +164 126034 035 037 000 00
$$
;

[SouthDadeFish]

SFMR is indicating if this becomes classified we will have Emily. Plenty of TS force winds.

[AdamFirst]

How much shear and dry air is this system currently under?

Negligible, if any?

[SouthDadeFish]

How much shear and dry air is this system currently under?

Dry air is the main issue. Soundings this morning in the Antilles showed considerable mid-level dry air.