ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[RL3AO]

033
URNT15 KNHC 011836
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 15 20110801
182600 1407N 05835W 9755 00300 0094 +240 +202 142024 025 022 002 00
182630 1408N 05836W 9763 00292 0093 +243 +202 142026 026 023 001 00
182700 1409N 05838W 9756 00298 0093 +245 +202 143028 030 022 001 00
182730 1409N 05839W 9765 00289 0093 +243 +202 147030 030 022 003 00
182800 1410N 05841W 9756 00298 0093 +241 +202 148030 031 024 003 00
182830 1411N 05843W 9765 00290 0092 +240 +201 148031 031 025 003 00
182900 1412N 05844W 9758 00295 0092 +240 +201 146032 032 027 003 00
182930 1413N 05846W 9765 00288 0090 +240 +199 150032 033 029 002 00
183000 1414N 05847W 9760 00292 0089 +240 +198 145031 031 029 002 00
183030 1415N 05849W 9761 00291 0089 +245 +197 145032 033 032 001 00
183100 1416N 05850W 9761 00291 0090 +241 +196 146031 032 030 005 00
183130 1417N 05852W 9761 00290 0090 +238 +196 146030 031 029 006 00
183200 1418N 05854W 9756 00294 0090 +235 +195 145032 032 031 005 00
183230 1419N 05855W 9756 00294 0089 +235 +193 142032 033 033 005 00
183300 1420N 05857W 9761 00289 0088 +235 +191 145033 034 032 005 00
183330 1421N 05858W 9764 00285 0087 +232 +189 140031 031 033 004 00
183400 1421N 05900W 9758 00291 0087 +235 +187 140031 031 034 004 00
183430 1422N 05902W 9761 00286 0086 +236 +187 142031 032 033 006 00
183500 1423N 05903W 9760 00290 0088 +234 +187 142029 030 031 006 00
183530 1424N 05905W 9759 00290 0088 +228 +186 143028 028 034 007 00
$$
;


Gotta go. Someone else can take over.

[Florida1118]

If this doesnt get upgraded at 5pm Im going to throw my computer against the wall. I dont plant on stay up till 5am again tonight waiting on her lol

[SouthDadeFish]

Hi,
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.

your english is just fine and welcome to storm2k! I am bringing your post back up as the board is moving fast and must have been missed.

Can someone please answer this for madinina? The original post is on page 82.

I saw the post in the models section earlier, here is what I wrote.

Martinique can expect some squally weather later today. 40-45 mph winds, heavy rain, and lightning. Stay tuned to the National Hurricane Center and your local weather service for any watches and warnings if they are issued. BTW your English is fine!

[Aric Dunn]

Convection closest to the possible LLC is weakening some

clearly out runing convection but it still is tightening up. and I imagine well at least its supposed to slow down soon.

[msbee]

Hi,
First, sorry for my bad english...
So, this system will not cross Martinique?I hope so, because here, nobody is ready...
We are working normally...
Thanks you for yours analyses since yesterday.

your english is just fine and welcome to storm2k! I am bringing your post back up as the board is moving fast and must have been missed.

Can someone please answer this for madinina? The original post is on page 82.

I am not sure myself where it is going to cross..maybe Gustywind from Guadeloupe can give an opinion when he checks in here.
I do think Martinique will get some bad weather from the system..maybe some tropical storm force winds... but hopefully not much more.
Please keep checking with Meteo.Fr , madinina... They are your best source for weather conditions.
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

From what I am hearing, no one in any of the islands is really prepared. people are watching but because of the uncertainty of the strengthening, people have not really prepared.
I hope nothing blows up in our faces.

Btw, sun is shining here but it sure is windy. 18 MPH winds from the ENE reported at the airport.

Barbara

[KWT]

Its close enough to the gulf to need watching thats for sure!

system takes probably the best possible route for keeping it weak, over Hispaniola, N.Cuba and then up through the Keys/SW Florida.

Think this still isn't the end of the westward adjustment, think the models will shift into the eastern gulf now...but we'll have to wait and see what the next round of models show!

[Extratropical94]

I'll do, thanks for your effort RL3AO.

Edit: Observation 16


000
URNT15 KNHC 011846
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 16 20110801
183600 1425N 05906W 9760 00288 0088 +220 +184 144028 030 031 008 00
183630 1426N 05908W 9768 00278 0088 +210 +182 153033 034 036 012 00
183700 1427N 05910W 9765 00283 0089 +203 +177 152033 034 040 012 00
183730 1428N 05911W 9754 00293 0088 +211 +171 149033 033 037 012 00
183800 1429N 05913W 9763 00285 0089 +208 +165 143033 033 038 020 00
183830 1430N 05914W 9760 00287 0091 +194 +162 137033 035 044 021 00
183900 1431N 05916W 9763 00287 0093 +195 +159 133028 029 042 024 00
183930 1432N 05917W 9759 00294 0095 +196 +159 136027 029 041 027 00
184000 1432N 05919W 9757 00294 0096 +195 +158 138030 031 053 039 00
184030 1433N 05921W 9760 00291 0095 +191 +157 126032 033 054 037 00
184100 1434N 05922W 9767 00286 0094 +192 +157 122031 033 054 040 00
184130 1435N 05924W 9759 00290 0093 +192 +157 124032 033 055 044 00
184200 1436N 05925W 9763 00286 0092 +195 +157 118031 033 057 037 00
184230 1437N 05927W 9757 00292 0092 +198 +157 119035 035 049 021 00
184300 1438N 05929W 9767 00283 0091 +196 +159 121029 033 046 023 00
184330 1439N 05930W 9755 00294 0091 +201 +159 137025 025 041 016 00
184400 1440N 05932W 9756 00292 0088 +215 +160 144024 025 034 009 00
184430 1441N 05933W 9757 00289 0086 +226 +161 125021 024 029 005 00
184500 1442N 05935W 9758 00287 0083 +237 +164 099019 021 024 002 00
184530 1442N 05936W 9759 00285 0082 +236 +169 098023 024 028 001 00
$$
;

[jonj2040]

turned around


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[SouthFLTropics]

If this doesnt get upgraded at 5pm Im going to throw my computer against the wall. I dont plant on stay up till 5am again tonight waiting on her lol

She's definitely bipolar. It's enough to drive us weather enthusiasts crazy. Somebody pour me a drink. Does Ivan have any of those Vodka and cranberries available???

[Hylian Auree]

Off-topic: that southwestern blob seems to be enhancing moisture in the area. Here at Curacao we're suddenly getting lots of low-level clouds.

[underthwx]

I agree with you KWT.......

[ROCK]

Its close enough to the gulf to need watching thats for sure!

system takes probably the best possible route for keeping it weak, over Hispaniola, N.Cuba and then up through the Keys/SW Florida.

Think this still isn't the end of the westward adjustment, think the models will shift into the eastern gulf now...but we'll have to wait and see what the next round of models show!

I agree as well...its not in a hurry to consolidate right now....booking west in a hurry...

[Bocadude85]

so as of right now the CMC, NOGAPS and EURO are showing a similar track...GFS, GFDL and HWRF are becoming the outliers....I even think the NAM is doing good.....GO NAM!!

The GFS really isnt that far off from the Euro

it aint showing it GOM bound.....

It misses getting into the Gulf by like 50 miles.. in the end both models show the system over the west coast of Florida.

[TexasF6]

Ok, why did msnbc in their live update just say "the low has a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane and hitting the east coast of the US next week" #Irresponsible reporting at the least. Apologies for being critical, but come on ....

[cycloneye]

01/1745 UTC 14.9N 57.1W T2.5/2.5 91L -- Atlantic

[Hylian Auree]

Ok, why did msnbc in their live update just say "the low has a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane and hitting the east coast of the US next week" #Irresponsible reporting at the least. Apologies for being critical, but come on ....

That is quite silly and irrational. I don't know how an official news agency can report stuff like that without professional back-up... plus, it's not even at 90% anymore

[bella_may]

Its close enough to the gulf to need watching thats for sure!

system takes probably the best possible route for keeping it weak, over Hispaniola, N.Cuba and then up through the Keys/SW Florida.

Think this still isn't the end of the westward adjustment, think the models will shift into the eastern gulf now...but we'll have to wait and see what the next round of models show!

I agree as well...its not in a hurry to consolidate right now....booking west in a hurry...

lot of them already have shifted into the eastern GOM

[RL3AO]

Ok, why did msnbc in their live update just say "the low has a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane and hitting the east coast of the US next week" #Irresponsible reporting at the least. Apologies for being critical, but come on ....

What?

[SouthFLTropics]

Ok, why did msnbc in their live update just say "the low has a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane and hitting the east coast of the US next week" #Irresponsible reporting at the least. Apologies for being critical, but come on ....

Gotta love "Mainstream" NBC. Always trying to hype up the public and stir the pot. Why watch that anyway when you can get all the information you need right here at S2K???

[Tireman4]

Ok, why did msnbc in their live update just say "the low has a 90% chance of becoming a hurricane and hitting the east coast of the US next week" #Irresponsible reporting at the least. Apologies for being critical, but come on ....

That is quite silly and irrational. I don't know how an official news agency can report stuff like that without professional back-up... plus, it's not even at 90% anymore

Ratings folks...ratings.....