ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3081 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:09 pm

What a change from a couple days ago :wink:

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#3082 Postby Extratropical94 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:10 pm

Observation 18


000
URNT15 KNHC 011906
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 18 20110801
185600 1501N 06008W 9761 00278 0075 +240 +215 120017 018 015 001 00
185630 1501N 06010W 9758 00281 0076 +237 +215 114016 017 015 000 00
185700 1502N 06011W 9764 00276 0075 +239 +215 116015 016 007 002 00
185730 1503N 06012W 9758 00281 0075 +238 +214 116016 016 011 002 00
185800 1504N 06014W 9758 00280 0075 +235 +213 117017 017 014 000 00
185830 1505N 06015W 9758 00280 0075 +236 +212 119015 016 018 001 00
185900 1506N 06017W 9761 00278 0075 +240 +210 118014 015 014 001 00
185930 1507N 06018W 9763 00275 0075 +240 +209 124016 017 010 001 00
190000 1507N 06020W 9758 00279 0075 +240 +209 123016 016 013 000 00
190030 1508N 06021W 9760 00279 0074 +240 +210 122017 017 016 002 00
190100 1509N 06023W 9761 00277 0074 +240 +211 123018 018 017 001 00
190130 1510N 06025W 9760 00278 0073 +241 +212 122018 019 016 001 00
190200 1511N 06026W 9761 00277 0073 +243 +213 123018 018 015 003 00
190230 1512N 06028W 9757 00280 0073 +240 +213 116018 019 018 002 00
190300 1513N 06029W 9761 00276 0072 +242 +214 117017 017 017 001 00
190330 1513N 06031W 9761 00276 0072 +242 +215 115018 018 009 002 00
190400 1514N 06032W 9759 00277 0072 +242 +215 115019 019 008 001 00
190430 1515N 06034W 9761 00276 0072 +239 +215 119020 020 018 002 00
190500 1516N 06035W 9763 00273 0074 +227 +215 118021 022 025 004 00
190530 1517N 06037W 9765 00273 0072 +240 +212 107020 020 015 000 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon

#3083 Postby WxEnthus » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:10 pm

I can do a few.
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#3084 Postby jonj2040 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:10 pm

here you go
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3085 Postby capepoint » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:10 pm

thats 2 islands with a westerly component. If she's not born yet, the labor pains have at least started in ernest.......
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#3086 Postby KWT » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:11 pm

12z models show the shortest route over water now...any further westward adjustments will expand the length of time over water and put the system into the gulf.

amazing what a delay in development and an under-estimated ridge can do for a system.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3087 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:11 pm

we are not done seeing this westward trend either....IMO....
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Re:

#3088 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:12 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Aric, you called this one. Just a fantastic call.



Yes it certainly was. Simply an excellent analysis and call you made Aric regarding the developing LLC, especially considering how tough it has been to see what is happening with this invest and how maddening this invest has made most people be during this long organizational phase.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3089 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:12 pm

still not t center.. but pressure down too 1007.2
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#3090 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:13 pm

Thanks !! :)
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#3091 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:14 pm

Dominica now reporting N to NNW winds, indicative of a LLC just east of there...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3092 Postby bbadon » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:14 pm

Better start wnw soon for those models to verify. imo
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Re:

#3093 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:15 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:still not t center.. but pressure down too 1007.2


True, but I think that is essentially where it is beginning to finally close off shortly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3094 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:15 pm

Gotta give kudos to Aric...He stuck to his guns and as of right now looks like he is going to be spot on! Way to go!!! :clap:
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Re:

#3095 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:15 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Dominica now reporting N to NNW winds, indicative of a LLC just east of there...


yep.. :)
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#3096 Postby Rgv20 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:16 pm

The BAM Models continue to steadily shift westward. I know they are not the best models but IMO they are the first ones to pick up on trends.
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#3097 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:17 pm

The moment of truth is near. If no closed circulation is present... I'm just going to stop tracking this for a while :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Recon

#3098 Postby WxEnthus » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:17 pm

Latest:

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Close up:

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Re:

#3099 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:18 pm

Hylian Auree wrote:The moment of truth is near. If no closed circulation is present... I'm just going to stop tracking this for a while :lol:


haha yeah.. only problem with this angle of approach is they wont measure west winds but we should see the classic wind shift :) hopefully.. either form or die. lol
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Re:

#3100 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 2:18 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Dominica now reporting N to NNW winds, indicative of a LLC just east of there...

Current Weather Conditions:
Canefield Airport, Dominica
(TDCF) 15-32N 061-24W 5M
Conditions at Aug 01, 2011 - 03:00 PM EDTAug 01, 2011 - 2011.08.01 1900 UTC
Wind from the N (350 degrees) at 10 MPH (9 KT)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather Light rain showers
Temperature 84 F (29 C)
Dew Point 78 F (26 C)
Relative Humidity 83%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.77 in. Hg (1008 hPa)
ob TDCF 011900Z 35009KT 9999 -SHRA BKN017 BKN270 29/26 Q1008

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

24 Hour Summary
Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 3 PM (19) Aug 01 84 (29) 78 (26) 29.77 (1008) N 10 light rain showers
2 PM (18) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.80 (1009) W 3 rain showers
1 PM (17) Aug 01 89 (32) 77 (25) 29.80 (1009) NE 3
Noon (16) Aug 01 84 (29) 75 (24) 29.83 (1010) NNW 10 light rain showers
11 AM (15) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.83 (1010) NW 12
10 AM (14) Aug 01 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
9 AM (13) Aug 01 86 (30) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NNW 8
8 AM (12) Aug 01 84 (29) 73 (23) 29.85 (1011) NW 3
7 AM (11) Aug 01 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.83 (1010) SSE 6
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