ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

Yes it certainly was. Simply an excellent analysis and call you made Aric regarding the developing LLC, especially considering how tough it has been to see what is happening with this invest and how maddening this invest has made most people be during this long organizational phase.

Yep it was a good call, its taken a while to undergo this change though thats for sure!

Recon going to be very interesting in the next hour!

[Extratropical94]

Observation 19


000
URNT15 KNHC 011916
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 19 20110801
190600 1518N 06038W 9758 00277 0072 +242 +210 112020 021 018 001 00
190630 1519N 06040W 9760 00277 0073 +241 +210 113021 022 020 002 00
190700 1520N 06041W 9760 00277 0073 +240 +211 111020 022 020 001 00
190730 1520N 06043W 9757 00279 0072 +240 +211 114024 025 021 001 00
190800 1521N 06044W 9762 00272 0071 +238 +212 115025 026 026 002 00
190830 1522N 06046W 9754 00279 0070 +237 +212 110028 029 028 001 00
190900 1523N 06048W 9763 00271 0069 +240 +211 103029 030 029 001 00
190930 1524N 06049W 9757 00276 0070 +240 +211 093031 032 029 001 00
191000 1525N 06051W 9760 00277 0072 +238 +211 083030 030 027 000 00
191030 1526N 06052W 9757 00280 0073 +230 +211 078029 030 023 001 00
191100 1527N 06054W 9758 00279 0074 +239 +208 078027 028 024 001 00
191130 1527N 06055W 9755 00284 0076 +233 +207 071026 027 022 002 00
191200 1528N 06057W 9760 00279 0076 +238 +205 069024 025 020 000 00
191230 1529N 06058W 9760 00279 0077 +236 +206 066025 025 020 001 03
191300 1529N 06100W 9758 00282 0077 +238 +208 058022 023 /// /// 03
191330 1527N 06100W 9765 00276 0077 +237 +211 054019 020 020 000 03
191400 1526N 06100W 9762 00278 0076 +236 +215 053019 019 019 000 00
191430 1524N 06100W 9760 00278 0075 +235 +217 052019 019 019 001 00
191500 1522N 06100W 9758 00279 0074 +236 +218 047018 018 020 000 00
191530 1521N 06100W 9760 00278 0073 +240 +219 044017 018 017 000 00
$$
;

[KWT]

we are not done seeing this westward trend either....IMO....

I think there maybe a slight westward adjustment, the broad trend looks good to me now though...all depends on when the system forms and when the upper ridge strengthens.

[Aric Dunn]

good winds went SSE, SE to NNE, NE

[OuterBanker]

If 15.3 60.5 is the center that would mean that it is much further west and north than the mlc. If models were run on the mlc location then there should be a rather large shift in the models.

[cheezyWXguy]

good winds went SSE, SE to NNE, NE

yeah and the pressure bottomed out at 1006.9 mb. Not bad...

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm still not convinced yet of an LLC there. They should head south soon and look for any form of west winds.

[Aric Dunn]

good winds went SSE, SE to NNE, NE

yeah and the pressure bottomed out at 1006.9 mb. Not bad...

we should have a closed circ.. that wind change happened quick... now do another quick turn a head north to south.. lol

[Frank2]

Note the heart-shaped outflow (!):

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

[jonj2040]

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Extratropical94]

Observation 20


000
URNT15 KNHC 011926
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 20 20110801
191600 1519N 06100W 9761 00276 0073 +240 +220 039016 017 019 000 00
191630 1517N 06100W 9759 00278 0073 +240 +221 035015 017 016 001 00
191700 1516N 06100W 9759 00277 0072 +240 +222 030014 015 015 000 00
191730 1514N 06100W 9761 00275 0072 +240 +222 024013 014 011 002 00
191800 1512N 06100W 9760 00278 0073 +240 +224 022013 013 010 001 00
191830 1511N 06100W 9760 00278 0073 +240 +224 012012 013 013 001 00
191900 1509N 06100W 9760 00278 0073 +240 +225 011013 014 009 001 00
191930 1507N 06100W 9761 00275 0073 +240 +225 013012 012 008 002 00
192000 1506N 06100W 9761 00278 0073 +241 +226 004010 010 008 002 00
192030 1504N 06100W 9761 00277 0074 +240 +226 354010 012 009 002 00
192100 1502N 06100W 9757 00280 0074 +237 +227 343011 013 004 002 03
192130 1501N 06059W 9760 00279 0074 +239 +227 343009 010 /// /// 03
192200 1502N 06058W 9761 00276 0073 +240 +227 354007 008 008 001 03
192230 1503N 06057W 9762 00275 0073 +240 +225 011006 007 007 001 00
192300 1504N 06055W 9759 00276 0071 +240 +224 021004 005 008 000 00
192330 1505N 06054W 9761 00274 0071 +240 +222 039004 005 008 001 00
192400 1507N 06053W 9760 00275 0069 +241 +221 051004 004 005 000 00
192430 1508N 06052W 9760 00273 0069 +240 +220 071003 003 003 003 00
192500 1509N 06051W 9758 00275 0069 +240 +220 088003 004 004 003 00
192530 1509N 06050W 9761 00272 0068 +241 +218 128005 006 006 001 00
$$
;

[WxEnthus]

good winds went SSE, SE to NNE, NE

yeah and the pressure bottomed out at 1006.9 mb. Not bad...

we should have a closed circ.. that wind change happened quick... now do another quick turn a head north to south.. lol

Looks like that's what they're doing now... are you in charge of flight orders??

[vbhoutex]

Now that I have snatched myself bald trying to figure this out, I have to jump in and say kudo's to Aric. However, until this system figures out how to spit out the dry air from the mid-levels it is going to still have a hard time developing. My prediction is that it will keep our heads spinning(pun intended)for at least 36-48 more hours. I even have started to allow the thought into my scrawny little neural mass that maybe this will just keep going between ALMOST THERE and open wave till it crashes into land somewhere and dissipates.

[ROCK]

Better start wnw soon for those models to verify. imo

its booking west at 15-20mph... what models are you referring to?

[Aric Dunn]

hey they did a quick loops... those are nn west winds..

192030 1504N 06100W 9761 00277 0074 +240 +226 354010 012 009 002 00
192100 1502N 06100W 9757 00280 0074 +237 +227 343011 013 004 002 03
192130 1501N 06059W 9760 00279 0074 +239 +227 343009 010 /// /// 03
192200 1502N 06058W 9761 00276 0073 +240 +227 354007 008 008 001 0

[SouthFLTropics]

Nah, he's not in charge...The Hurricane Hunters must be lurking on S2K somewhere and they are reading the post via 4G coverage on the C130. They are trying to give the people what they want!!! LOL

SFT

[KWT]

192100 1502N 06100W 9757 00280 0074 +237 +227 343011 013 004 002 03

Certainly wind shift there, recon looks like its getting close to wherre any circulation maybe developing.

[southerngale]

Let's leave the sexual innuendos out of the thread.

[Tireman4]

Now that I have snatched myself bald trying to figure this out, I have to jump in and say kudo's to Aric. However, until this system figures out how to spit out the dry air from the mid-levels it is going to still have a hard time developing. My prediction is that it will keep our heads spinning(pun intended)for at least 36-48 more hours. I even have started to allow the thought into my scrawny little neural mass that maybe this will just keep going between ALMOST THERE and open wave till it crashes into land somewhere and dissipates.

Well, I am satisfied. Thank you Vbhoutex. How come no one else can say this?

[ROCK]

The BAM Models continue to steadily shift westward. I know they are not the best models but IMO they are the first ones to pick up on trends.

the NOGAPS has lead the way thus far...CMC second and now the EURO.....