ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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ROCK
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Re: Re:

#3161 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Blown Away wrote:
KWT wrote:SouthFloridawx, really does depend on the state of it when it reaches Hispaniola and the exacts of the upper pattern at the time as well.

Hispaniola weakens, sometimes severely...rarely does it kill outright though without shear helping out.


Looking at the plots, 91L looks like it will keep moving 15-20 as it crosses Hispaniola then slows in the Bahamas. Less time over the big mountains may keep the circulation from complete destruction?


less organized core and fast moving is better for sure IMO.......just never know...
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#3162 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Ah, I'm on the edge of my seat... Can't wait to see what this gives us.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3163 Postby JPmia » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:00 pm

considering the wind readings they're getting .. they could upgrade to TS Emily.. we shall see!
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#3164 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:00 pm

yeah that and..recon has been finding ( even more with the new set of hdobs) of believable 50mph winds..
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#3165 Postby RL3AO » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:00 pm

Center is circled.

Image
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#3166 Postby psyclone » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:00 pm

it is improving a bit in appearance. perhaps tonight's dmax will help seal the deal.
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#3167 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:01 pm

Convection continues to push closer to the LLC. Notice the surge of clouds moving in that area.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3168 Postby HUC » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:01 pm

THAT'S RIGHT: THERE IS AN EVIDENT LLC NEAR 15,5n AND 60,5 OUEST JUST EAST OF DOMINICA.vISIBLE IN THE FLOATER LOOP.
Here in the soutern tip of Guadeloupe( where i can see Dominica),the sky are cloudy the wind ENE and i registered 12m/s wind in my official anemometer during a breaf squall. So this is a sheared system like a lot in this area; but seems that naer 15N 58O there is some circulation( mid level???). Stay tuned,i will go again in two hours to recorded the wind and confirmed the plane observations in the area east of Dominica...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3169 Postby Battlebrick » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:01 pm

I think at 5 PM, the NHC will finally put an end to this invest and make it Tropical Storm Emily.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3170 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:02 pm

Yeah, kind of stuck between a rock and a hard place. Catch 22. Upgrade and nothing happen, don't upgrade and people aren't warned of whats coming.
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Re:

#3171 Postby Bocadude85 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:02 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:This is about as borderline a situation as I've ever seen. It's so close...



Ill bet they dont upgrade at 5pm. Probably will want to see the LLC and convection sustain for a few hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

#3172 Postby Rainband » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:03 pm

this one is starting to get my attention....
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Re: Re:

#3173 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:04 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
SouthDadeFish wrote:This is about as borderline a situation as I've ever seen. It's so close...



Ill bet they dont upgrade at 5pm. Probably will want to see the LLC and convection sustain for a few hours.

I agree. Perhaps 11pm or 5am would be my guess. If current trends continue Im guessing 5am. JMO
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#3174 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:04 pm

For those who are interrested here is Meteo-France loop of 91L between Saturday 9PM to Sunday 9AM....
:rarrow: http://www.meteo.gp/alaune/alaune_auto/ ... 7_2011.gif
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#3175 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:05 pm

The NHC usually errors on the side of caution. If they have evidence that causes them to believe there is a LLC I think they will classify it since it its literally over the Lesser Antilles right now. Just my opinion.
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#3176 Postby vacanechaser » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:05 pm

everyone talking about it going over hispaniola.. lets remember, if it stays weaker before crossing, then the disruption will be less.. sounds crazy but i remember a system a few years ago staying weak as it crossed and it did little to disrupt the circulation.. just a thought.. it tends to be a bigger problem with stronger systems...




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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3177 Postby Hurricaneman » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:05 pm

It looks like the midlevel center and lowlevel center are getting closer together, and I believe they will stack tonight and then we might get a hurricane in hispaniola which would be horrible thats my current take on things

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#3178 Postby SouthDadeFish » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:06 pm

You know they might be flying NE to see how far TS force winds extend before classifying it...
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Re:

#3179 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:06 pm

Gustywind wrote:For those who are interrested here is Meteo-France loop of 91L between Saturday 9PM to Sunday 9AM....
:rarrow: http://www.meteo.gp/alaune/alaune_auto/ ... 7_2011.gif


or here... long loop starting yesterday..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108
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#3180 Postby Cyclone1 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 3:06 pm

Image
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