ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

finally wind switches NW in Martinique...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFF.html

All data really suggests this is a disorganized TS.

[RL3AO]

It was brought up earlier but I don't understand why watches can't be issued even if an area is just an Invest. Watch indicates TS Conditions are "possible" and surely that would be true here.

Its something they are working on. I'm guessing either next season or the season after they will start issuing not only watches before a storm forms, but public forecasts as well.

[Gustywind]

Burst of convection are popping nicely everywhere...

[Florida1118]

This is about as borderline a situation as I've ever seen. It's so close...

I say upgrade. It already in the islands, so Warnings would neeed to go up asap. But then again, Id wait so it doesnt poof and they look like fools, so...yeah borderline

It was brought up earlier but I don't understand why watches can't be issued even if an area is just an Invest. Watch indicates TS Conditions are "possible" and surely that would be true here.

Well I guess the island governments are just stubborn or want to wait...If they felt the need I guess they would have

[Aric Dunn]

finally wind switches NW in Martinique...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFF.html

All data really suggests this is a disorganized TS.

not from recon... the land obs are more suspect because of mountains

[Hylian Auree]

Well, I am satisfied. Thank you Vbhoutex. How come no one else can say this?

Ditto.

Yes, at this point in time the visible sat. and surface obs shows a broad, in the clear of the hard convection, surface low passing through the islands. This might very well become dominant.

But, that circulation could also just be running away from the convection of the western blob under which it was located earlier, just above the surface. There certainly have been various centers at various levels with this easterly wave for several days now.

Definitely. My personal nickname for this is the omni-vortice beast for a reason.

[Aric Dunn]

they are heading back in..

[SouthDadeFish]

finally wind switches NW in Martinique...

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFF.html

All data really suggests this is a disorganized TS.

not from recon... the land obs are more suspect because of mountains

It had a wind shift from NNW to SE. When I look at it on Google Earth it really resembles a circulation in that location. Regardless if they classify it or not at 5, I'm pretty sure it will continue to slowly organize as the day turns to night...

[Aric Dunn]

they just were not able to sample the south quad. but what they did sample points to a closed circ.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 25


000
URNT15 KNHC 012016
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 25 20110801
200600 1601N 06000W 9764 00289 0093 +230 +207 123038 039 033 003 00
200630 1601N 06002W 9758 00296 0093 +229 +207 121040 042 033 003 00
200700 1601N 06004W 9762 00292 0093 +228 +207 121037 039 033 002 00
200730 1601N 06006W 9762 00292 0093 +227 +207 121038 039 033 002 00
200800 1601N 06008W 9761 00292 0093 +228 +207 121039 040 032 006 00
200830 1601N 06010W 9762 00291 0093 +225 +207 120037 038 034 000 00
200900 1601N 06011W 9761 00293 0093 +223 +206 117039 041 035 002 00
200930 1601N 06013W 9761 00292 0093 +226 +205 116039 040 033 005 00
201000 1601N 06015W 9759 00294 0093 +227 +203 113040 042 035 002 00
201030 1601N 06017W 9762 00291 0092 +226 +201 114041 042 037 001 00
201100 1601N 06019W 9761 00291 0092 +225 +200 111042 043 037 002 00
201130 1601N 06021W 9761 00292 0092 +226 +199 111042 043 037 003 00
201200 1601N 06023W 9755 00296 0091 +221 +199 110042 043 038 006 00
201230 1601N 06025W 9764 00286 0090 +227 +198 107042 044 037 004 00
201300 1602N 06027W 9757 00291 0089 +221 +197 104042 044 035 004 00
201330 1602N 06029W 9757 00291 0088 +222 +195 103044 045 036 006 00
201400 1603N 06031W 9767 00283 0089 +216 +193 102043 044 037 005 00
201430 1603N 06033W 9761 00288 0090 +208 +190 104044 045 042 004 00
201500 1603N 06034W 9766 00284 0089 +230 +188 096042 044 036 004 03
201530 1603N 06036W 9753 00297 0090 +224 +187 095041 043 035 005 00
$$
;

[capepoint]

Although they don't really have the smoking gun yet, they have enough hints of a circulation that I think they will at least pull the trigger on TD5 classification at 5. That gives them time to watch for sustained activity as well as sample the west and south sides prehaps as it clears the island, while also getting the media to do flips and alert the public that something is finally coming together.
All in all upgrading to TD sounds the alarm while also giving wiggle room, so it's a safe play. If it were further away from people they could justify sitting on it a few more hours.

Just my opinon......

[Aric Dunn]

winds picking up in Dominica and pressure down to 1007

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDCF.html

[underthwx]

http://bvihurricane.com/files/Invest-91 ... t-anim.gif


movement slightly WNW?.....or just a jog in the loop..........

[gatorcane]

this is very close to Emily....wouldn't be surprised if we get an upgrade at the next advisory or the one coming up later this evening....but we should see one no later than tomorrow AM.

[Sanibel]

The hurricane belt easterlies make west winds difficult to detect in this area with forming tropical storms. We go through this every year with systems that mostly end up developing into cyclones.

[RL3AO]

Heres what Aric is trying to get across on why recon didn't find west winds yet.

[Aric Dunn]

when they do upgrade im guessing 45mph

[Aric Dunn]

Heres what Aric is trying to get across on why recon didn't find west winds yet.

thankyou.. and there is an island in the way with mountains and observations on the island are only partially reliable because of that.

[SouthDadeFish]

Heres what Aric is trying to get across on why recon didn't find west winds yet.

This is what I was trying to say as well... I'm pretty sure we have a LLC down there... Look how well the recon obs match up with how a circulation would look.

[Ivanhater]

Convection is surging toward the possible LLC