WPAC: MUIFA (Kabayan) - Tropical Depression

[JTE50]

Definitely looking better than it did an hour ago! Will have to see how it holds out overnight and if she bombs again.

and if the track/windspeed forecast holds from JTWC, it will definitely be worse than the last one. Good idea to plan for the worst case scenario.

[StormingB81]

wow...looks way better this morning then it did last night...wonder what the winds are now..

[P.K.]

WTPQ21 RJTD 011800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1109 MUIFA (1109)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 011800UTC 21.5N 134.2E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 300NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 021800UTC 23.5N 132.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 031800UTC 24.6N 129.8E 110NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 041800UTC 25.8N 127.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[StormingB81]

Latest time line..however looks betetr then when they posted this at about 11pm last night so We shall see.

-- Winds of 35 mph or greater, 3 p.m. Wednesday.
-- Winds of 40 mph or greater, 3 a.m. Thursday.
-- Wind gusts of 58 mph or greater, 5 p.m. Thursday.
-- Sustained 58-mph winds or greater, 6 a.m.-6 p.m. Friday.
-- Strongest winds on Okinawa, 86-mph sustained with 132-mph gusts, between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. Friday.
-- Wind gusts diminishing below 58 mph, 2 p.m. Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 40 mph, midnight Saturday.
-- Winds diminishing below 35 mph, 3 a.m. Sunday.

[StormingB81]

Looks like an eye is starting to form again

[StormingB81]

wow...is it me or does it look like it is really starting to strengthen now?

[KWT]

Presentation has vastly improved, probably going to see some strengthening soon as forecasted by the models.

[StormingB81]

That NE side looks nasty! If it continue I wonder what the next warnings will say..wonder if the numbers are climbing...that eye is becoming ore and more..

[Typhoon Hunter]

Morning all! Just got my cup of tea and opening all the satellite links, agency forecasts and models - gotta love the morning routine at this time of year (as long as not facing down the barrel of a super typhoon!)

Muifa really looks much better this morning, seems to have sorted out it's inner problems and I'd now classify this as a successful EWRC.
JMA 18z were going for a direct hit on Okinawa still, their 00z update will be out in half an hour. I'll post again soon once I've gone through everything!

[rdhdstpchld]

OK- am I correct here? Songda came raking up the side of Okinawa...and the winds went first south to north and then north to south (with a horrific pressure drop in the middle - head felt like it was about to explode). I'm thinking this one will come east to west and then west to east, yes --- since it's forecast to cut straight across the island. That makes a huge difference to most of us b/c of the position of our houses and the windows - my windows are all north/south facing...only a couple east/west. also, north/south winds are way more dangerous "falling tree" wise for me as the trees are on the north side of my house. Hopefully I'm guessing right here? If winds rake east to west and west to east, should be loud but not as dangerous

[weatherSnoop]

Looks like an eye is starting to form again

and he has a "monkey on his back"

[dhoeze]

Hope folks at Okinawa are prepared. You guys take care please.

[bicolanodevil]

morning, folks.... saying hi to everyone. newbie here from bicol region, philippines.... muifa is definitely looking good today, huh?

[KWT]

Also, just take a look at the size of that convective region to the NE of the system, its huge!

Can also see the inflow band wrap the whole way round the system in that above image!

[StormingB81]

New JMA:

TY 1109 (MUIFA)
Issued at 00:45 UTC, 2 August 2011
<Analyses at 02/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N22°00'(22.0°)
E134°05'(134.1°)
Direction and speed of movement N 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 170km(90NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more E560km(300NM)
W370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 02/12 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°05'(23.1°)
E133°20'(133.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 90km(50NM)
Storm warning area Wide 260km(140NM)

<Forecast for 03/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N23°50'(23.8°)
E132°05'(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area Wide 300km(160NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N24°55'(24.9°)
E129°30'(129.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15km/h(7kt)
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area Wide 370km(200NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°55'(25.9°)
E127°30'(127.5°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area Wide 440km(240NM)

[StormingB81]

Yesterday JMA forecasted 80Knots..They moved it up to 85 Knots. for Okinawa

[artist]

Yesterday JMA forecasted 80Knots..They moved it up to 85 Knots. for Okinawa

can you tell me if Sasebo is in the crosshairs? Have family there...

[StormingB81]

Yesterday JMA forecasted 80Knots..They moved it up to 85 Knots. for Okinawa

can you tell me if Sasebo is in the crosshairs? Have family there...

Baring a right hand turn Sasebo has nothing to worry about.

[Infdidoll]

OK- am I correct here? Songda came raking up the side of Okinawa...and the winds went first south to north and then north to south (with a horrific pressure drop in the middle - head felt like it was about to explode). I'm thinking this one will come east to west and then west to east, yes --- since it's forecast to cut straight across the island. That makes a huge difference to most of us b/c of the position of our houses and the windows - my windows are all north/south facing...only a couple east/west. also, north/south winds are way more dangerous "falling tree" wise for me as the trees are on the north side of my house. Hopefully I'm guessing right here? If winds rake east to west and west to east, should be loud but not as dangerous

We've got windows on 3 sides of our apartment which is kind of situated with exposure to the W, NW, N, E, and SE. Songda at her worst battered the E/SE side and as she passed, we took a direct beating on the W/NW side. Songda also approached us from what I've heard is the worst angle, because it put us in the NE quadrant of the storm for much longer. It's all going to come down to the intensity of the storm when it gets here, how fast it is moving, and which lucky part of the island gets to experience the winds around that eyewall. I was hoping for a daytime storm, but doesn't look like it, right now. I hate these storms that hit in the dead of night when I need my sleep! All our beds are near windows.

I'd better have a cup of coffee and then get to work. I've got typhoon prep to do today.

[artist]

Yesterday JMA forecasted 80Knots..They moved it up to 85 Knots. for Okinawa

can you tell me if Sasebo is in the crosshairs? Have family there...

Baring a right hand turn Sasebo has nothing to worry about.

thank you!
Will be thinking about you all. Be sure to check in as you can.