ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

Recon heading due South towards center. We should know if its closed within the next 30 minutes.

if they are able to sample that area.. im sure thats there real goal .. here.

[underthwx]

I did not realize that was an old loop..........just looked at it.sorry ....

[Swimdude]

I guess we'll get a special update rather than a 5 p.m. update? Or perhaps a late 5 p.m. update? Assuming they find West winds.

[jonj2040]

sorry about that it was just a marker for my preference removed it and updated

[Extratropical94]

Observation 27


000
URNT15 KNHC 012036
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 27 20110801
202600 1546N 06100W 9761 00280 0078 +235 +216 080029 030 026 001 00
202630 1544N 06100W 9758 00281 0077 +235 +217 078028 029 025 001 00
202700 1543N 06100W 9760 00280 0077 +227 +218 083028 029 022 005 00
202730 1541N 06100W 9755 00284 0078 +219 +216 084028 029 030 008 00
202800 1540N 06100W 9760 00280 0077 +217 +212 085029 030 034 010 00
202830 1538N 06100W 9758 00280 0075 +234 +207 085030 031 025 002 00
202900 1537N 06100W 9761 00277 0074 +232 +205 083031 031 027 002 00
202930 1535N 06100W 9757 00278 0073 +229 +205 076031 032 027 004 00
203000 1534N 06100W 9760 00277 0073 +230 +205 081030 031 028 004 00
203030 1532N 06100W 9760 00275 0072 +230 +204 080030 030 029 002 00
203100 1530N 06100W 9759 00275 0071 +235 +202 078029 029 027 002 00
203130 1529N 06100W 9760 00274 0070 +235 +202 078028 029 028 002 00
203200 1527N 06100W 9762 00271 0070 +234 +204 080028 030 027 001 00
203230 1526N 06100W 9758 00274 0070 +227 +206 077029 030 028 006 00
203300 1524N 06100W 9767 00266 0070 +224 +206 084025 027 023 006 03
203330 1523N 06059W 9759 00273 0068 +240 +205 092024 025 025 002 00
203400 1522N 06058W 9760 00273 0068 +240 +205 095023 024 026 002 00
203430 1521N 06057W 9760 00272 0068 +239 +207 093025 025 023 004 03
203500 1520N 06056W 9753 00279 0068 +236 +210 092021 023 019 004 03
203530 1519N 06057W 9765 00267 0068 +237 +212 096020 020 020 001 00
$$
;

[MGC]

I'll fall out of my chair if the NHC upgrades this. There might be a small eddy out there but nothing close to being a TC. Perhaps in a couple of days when 91L gets closer to the western Caribbean......MGC

[artist]

THAT'S RIGHT: THERE IS AN EVIDENT LLC NEAR 15,5n AND 60,5 OUEST JUST EAST OF DOMINICA.vISIBLE IN THE FLOATER LOOP.
Here in the soutern tip of Guadeloupe( where i can see Dominica),the sky are cloudy the wind ENE and i registered 12m/s wind in my official anemometer during a breaf squall. So this is a sheared system like a lot in this area; but seems that naer 15N 58O there is some circulation( mid level???). Stay tuned,i will go again in two hours to recorded the wind and confirmed the plane observations in the area east of Dominica...

thanks for that HUC! Stay safe.

[Aric Dunn]

I guess we'll get a special update rather than a 5 p.m. update? Or perhaps a late 5 p.m. update? Assuming they find West winds.

Either.. but I imagine they have it all ready just incase.

[Florida1118]

I guess we'll get a special update rather than a 5 p.m. update? Or perhaps a late 5 p.m. update? Assuming they find West winds.

Thats what Im thinking, just do a 5pm and pretend its not 45minutes late lol

[Swimdude]

I guess we'll get a special update rather than a 5 p.m. update? Or perhaps a late 5 p.m. update? Assuming they find West winds.

Either.. but I imagine they have it all ready just incase.

I wonder how many times they've "had it all ready" in the last 2 days.

[Hylian Auree]

Small eddy? lol
This is by no means small, albeit not entirely closed yet.

[Aric Dunn]

not too center yet... pressure already below from first pass.

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

This is about as borderline a situation as I've ever seen. It's so close...

I say upgrade. It already in the islands, so Warnings would neeed to go up asap. But then again, Id wait so it doesnt poof and they look like fools, so...yeah borderline

It was brought up earlier but I don't understand why watches can't be issued even if an area is just an Invest. Watch indicates TS Conditions are "possible" and surely that would be true here.

Because the NHC is not the government body in charge of issuing watches and warnings for the Caribbean islands ? They can only supply agencies with recommendations (that they usually use). Even in the USA the federal government only does something similar, which the local and state governments use to take action (and insurance companies use to define as an event). Each island has its own weather agency that no doubt issues local forecasts that are circulated in the news.

Here is a link to the story in a Guadaloupe news site:

http://guadeloupe.la1ere.fr/infos/actua ... 60164.html

I don't suspect this is a surprise to anyone, that is a "gale storm" if I recall.

[Ivanhater]

I'll fall out of my chair if the NHC upgrades this. ......MGC

Make sure you have something soft to land on MGC!

[bella_may]

i noticed somebody posted a little while back that their dad is a veteran air force pilot and he thinks this will be a central gulf coast storm. anybody else think this chance is getting greater?

[Nimbus]

Anyone get a speed for this little vortex streaking west? Its almost humorous except that it might slow down and the mid level convection might catch her. Models are going to shift west again if they initialize on that. Almost past Dominica now so I guess they may wait to upgrade.

[Swimdude]

not too center yet... pressure already below from first pass.

1006.8 and falling, to be exact

[MGC]

God provided my with a bit of natural cushion just incase I slip off the chair. But considering how liberal the NHC has gotten over the years in naming stuff who knows.....MGC

[Gustywind]

[jonj2040]

sorry again I guess I missed un-checking the box a couple times so disregard the Emily, ill just change it to 91l so I don't slip up again anyway here is the next image without the mistake


Uploaded with ImageShack.us