ATL: EMILY - Remnants

jonj2040 · #3401 Postby **jonj2040** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:12 pm

#3402 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:12 pm

Recon found another little swirl to the S of the main LLC. Not uncommon in developing tropical cyclones. This one doesn't look as well defined as the other, and the pressure isn't as low.

Aric Dunn · #3403 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:13 pm

looks like a turn back to the west or wnw

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

#3404 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:13 pm

I'm sure NHC has reasons for holding back and I suspect that it is to verify that this center remains viable as it appears to be doing so per sat. presentation.

PTrackerLA · #3405 Postby **PTrackerLA** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:13 pm

Up to 90 hrs looks to be recurving...interesting.

shaggy · #3406 Postby **shaggy** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:14 pm

Seems to be a huge shift east on the GFS. Wonder if its the gulfstream data influencing the models now?

Aric Dunn · #3407 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:15 pm

just continuing to explode..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html

#3408 Postby **MGC** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:15 pm

It is evident that the eddy found by recon is not what the NHC considers a closed circulation. This is still a strong wave moving just north of west....give it some more time.......MGC

#3409 Postby **painkillerr** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:15 pm

Florida1118 wrote:
fci wrote:Wow, good to see S2K back and up. Seemed to have CRASHED. I hope each time things ramp up that this doesn't continue to happen!?!

Yeah I was going to ask about it but it didnt seem to effect others

It crashed for a few minutes! I had to restart the pc to get back on.

underthwx · #3410 Postby **underthwx** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:16 pm

could be shaggy....noticed the same thing

#3411 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:16 pm

That GFS run looks more like it and is now closer to the GFDL it looks like. Since it develops the system now we see it shoot through the well-advertised weakness. The ECMWF does not develop it that quickly on the 12Z, so misses it but keeps it weak. The ECMWF would look like the GFS if it develops it like the GFS is doing. I wouldn't be surprised if the HWRF shifts right as well and is more in line with the GFDL mostly because the HWRF is over bullish on developing systems anyway.

With the GFS and GFDL showing this, the consensus should shift right.

Aric Dunn · #3412 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:16 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon found another little swirl to the S of the main LLC. Not uncommon in developing tropical cyclones. This one doesn't look as well defined as the other, and the pressure isn't as low.

those occur naturally from the mountains on .. eddys

KWT · #3413 Postby **KWT** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:16 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:Recon found another little swirl to the S of the main LLC. Not uncommon in developing tropical cyclones. This one doesn't look as well defined as the other, and the pressure isn't as low.

Yep weak eddy, I'd have thought with the larger LLC the weaker eddy will soon get snuffed out...

SunnyThoughts · #3414 Postby **SunnyThoughts** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:17 pm

Looks like bombs exploding in that link Aric provided

#3415 Postby **fci** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:17 pm

painkillerr wrote:
Florida1118 wrote:
fci wrote:Wow, good to see S2K back and up. Seemed to have CRASHED. I hope each time things ramp up that this doesn't continue to happen!?!

Yeah I was going to ask about it but it didnt seem to effect others

It crashed for a few minutes! I had to restart the pc to get back on.

And a little crashing went on right about when Don got upgraded.
Doesn't necessarily bode well for when there is serious action and traffic; potentially in the next few days and certainly over the next 2+ months.

Skyhawk · #3416 Postby **Skyhawk** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:18 pm

Not many readings in the 180 - 270 range and they were light. Most of the "west" winds between 270 and 360.

#3417 Postby **Extratropical94** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:18 pm

Observation 37

000
URNT15 KNHC 012216
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 37 20110801
220600 1332N 06114W 9760 00281 0079 +240 +210 199007 007 014 001 00
220630 1332N 06112W 9760 00282 0079 +239 +212 206008 010 013 000 00
220700 1332N 06111W 9760 00281 0078 +241 +213 204008 009 009 001 00
220730 1332N 06109W 9760 00282 0078 +241 +214 192007 007 008 000 00
220800 1332N 06108W 9761 00281 0078 +240 +215 195007 008 008 001 00
220830 1332N 06106W 9759 00282 0078 +241 +216 168004 005 007 000 00
220900 1332N 06105W 9761 00281 0078 +241 +217 159004 004 001 004 00
220930 1332N 06103W 9759 00283 0078 +240 +218 203005 005 006 002 00
221000 1332N 06102W 9761 00281 0078 +240 +218 195006 007 004 002 00
221030 1332N 06100W 9760 00282 0078 +240 +219 191008 008 004 001 00
221100 1332N 06058W 9760 00283 0079 +240 +219 179008 008 007 001 00
221130 1332N 06057W 9760 00283 0080 +241 +220 175008 009 005 001 00
221200 1332N 06055W 9761 00283 0081 +243 +220 164008 009 006 000 00
221230 1332N 06054W 9760 00285 0081 +245 +220 153009 009 006 001 00
221300 1332N 06052W 9760 00285 0081 +245 +221 144008 009 006 001 00
221330 1332N 06051W 9759 00286 0081 +244 +221 141007 007 008 000 00
221400 1332N 06049W 9760 00286 0082 +242 +221 138006 006 009 000 00
221430 1332N 06048W 9761 00285 0082 +243 +222 146006 007 007 003 00
221500 1332N 06046W 9759 00286 0082 +245 +221 138006 007 008 000 00
221530 1332N 06045W 9761 00285 0082 +243 +222 136005 006 007 001 00
$$
;

Aric Dunn · #3418 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:19 pm

Dominica

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TDPD.html

winds up a lot and switch direction.. as expected

Hylian Auree · #3419 Postby **Hylian Auree** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:20 pm

If this isn't a tropical cyclone, I don't know what is.

theU · #3420 Postby **theU** » Mon Aug 01, 2011 5:20 pm

As "soon to be Emily" begins to get west of the ULL to its north situated at 28' & 60', steady intensification should start.. The same ULL which has been hindering it's development will soon begin to aid it by ventilating it.. Conditions don't appear to be to hostile upstream so I don't see why this should not start getting it's act together beginning here shortly IMO.

ATL: EMILY - Remnants

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Models

Re:

Re:

Re: Re:

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

Who is online