ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[floridasun78]

ok let hold back untill we get it by nhc i see their rename it i see plane still in 91l soon to rename emily

[cheezyWXguy]

I can't believe the NHC is going to upgrade this piece of junk. The forecasters over at the NHC are most probably trying to talk the forecaster with the least seniority to write the first advisory....MGC

Lol you're funny. Considering theres a well defined circulation, now underneath deep convection with recon reporting winds of over tropical storm force, I cant see what would keep this from being upgraded...

[Macrocane]

It's not official yet until the NHC releases an advisory, remember Ana on 2009 it was renumbered but the NHC did not release an advisory a few hours later it was deactivated and a couple of days later it was officially named Ana although in the Final Report they accepted that it was a tropical storm when it was renumbered for the first time.

[KWT]

Its a short lived ridge between say 96-144hrs that develops...

Hence why the system doesn't instantly scoot out to sea as it strengthens but stays on a broadly NW track.

The upper high is weaker this run, hence why it goes NW rather then WNW like it has done in previous runs...the system is a little stronger as well which makes a bit of a difference.

[Aric Dunn]

thats the problem... 162 hours...

I was looking at only 3 to 4 days out.. thats the important time frame.

[artist]

TD5 according to NRL

[underthwx]

Models should be much clearer come daybreak tomorrow..Im fixin to check NHC real quick...been doing it every 5 mins.

[KWT]

They will make it Emily once the advisory comes out, pretty sure they will go for Emily anyway, I'd be a little surprised if they are so conservative again and go with a TD...

[stormreader]

I can't believe the NHC is going to upgrade this piece of junk. The forecasters over at the NHC are most probably trying to talk the forecaster with the least seniority to write the first advisory....MGC

I guess its not her appearance, its whats on the inside that counts. At least thats what I was told back when I was in school. Anyway, I'm looking forward to her blossoming over the next couple of days.

[vacanechaser]

TD5 according to NRL

you beat me to it...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[bigdan35]

For what its worth the 18z nogaps keeps system weak and into central gulf.
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... al&tau=000

[KWT]

I guess its not her appearance, its whats on the inside that counts. At least thats what I was told back when I was in school. Anyway, I'm looking forward to her blossoming over the next couple of days.

The thing I didn't understand is it actually looks good at the moment, may look a linear but I'm betting it develops at a decent clip from now on.

Overall cloud shield motion looks to be about 275 right now, though the LLC has been a shade south of west as it aligns itself with the deep convection.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 40


000
URNT15 KNHC 012246
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 40 20110801
223600 1401N 06001W 9764 00283 0084 +237 +215 154017 017 015 001 00
223630 1402N 06002W 9764 00282 0083 +237 +215 149016 016 016 001 00
223700 1403N 06003W 9764 00283 0083 +238 +215 144017 017 013 002 00
223730 1404N 06004W 9761 00285 0083 +242 +215 141019 019 018 001 00
223800 1405N 06006W 9762 00285 0084 +241 +216 144019 019 018 001 00
223830 1407N 06007W 9764 00283 0084 +240 +217 142017 018 020 002 00
223900 1408N 06008W 9759 00288 0084 +240 +217 141016 017 019 002 00
223930 1409N 06009W 9766 00282 0084 +240 +218 141017 018 017 002 00
224000 1410N 06010W 9761 00287 0085 +240 +218 140016 016 019 003 00
224030 1411N 06012W 9765 00283 0084 +240 +219 140016 017 016 005 00
224100 1412N 06013W 9763 00285 0085 +240 +219 134015 016 015 006 00
224130 1414N 06014W 9764 00284 0084 +240 +218 133014 014 019 006 00
224200 1415N 06015W 9763 00284 0084 +240 +217 134015 015 020 008 00
224230 1416N 06016W 9764 00283 0085 +232 +215 135016 017 024 009 00
224300 1417N 06017W 9762 00284 0086 +228 +212 136017 018 025 011 00
224330 1418N 06019W 9766 00281 0087 +220 +208 136014 016 031 011 00
224400 1419N 06020W 9761 00287 0086 +228 +202 136014 016 023 006 00
224430 1421N 06021W 9763 00285 0085 +241 +198 134013 014 023 001 00
224500 1422N 06022W 9764 00284 0085 +241 +197 131014 015 019 003 00
224530 1423N 06023W 9762 00286 0086 +240 +199 126016 016 020 005 00
$$
;

[Dean4Storms]

18z GFS is now the eastern Global Outlier. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and that the GFS comes back west. All the other Global models are well west of this.

[KWT]

Nogaps doesn't make much sense, not sure why it would weaken into the Caribbean for?

I'd treat that as an outlier for now...

I suspect the stronger model reposnses for now will probably be more dependable.

[knotimpaired]

TD5 according to NRL

you beat me to it...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Was I to hasty to pass this information to the person who writes the Vieques Island Blog? Is announcing that it is Emily going to come back to haunt me?

[Hylian Auree]

Night time for vis imagery... nighties Emily, let's see how diurnal min treats you

[KWT]

Was I to hasty to pass this information to the person who writes the Vieques Island Blog? Is announcing that it is Emily going to come back to haunt me?

I'd be very surprised if they went for TD5, esp given deep dconvection and plenty of wind reports that would support 35kts.

[jonj2040]

now that the visible imagery is gone would it be bast to take out the background image or change it to none ore some other IR image just trying to get a preference im still new at this.

[Extratropical94]

I wonder why the last entry in the al052011.invest file was changed from INVEST to EMILY, but the winds remained at 30kts.