ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[wxman57]

Fair chance of Emily moving across Haiti or the DR Thursday and reaching near SE Florida Saturday morning. I think the initial NHC track will have it passing east of Florida, as the consensus models are there. However, it could very easily move into the southern Peninsula. Has a rough road in its path, fighting dry air and high terrain of the DR or even eastern Cuba. May be hard to reach hurricane strength before impacting Florida. Could be close though. Very many uncertainties in the intensity forecast and therefore the track forecast.

[wxman57]

When will this thread end and a Emily thread start?

We'll just rename this thread. No new thread.

[Swimdude]

There were plenty of TS strength winds found by recon - so TD5 would make no sense.

Should be Emily, I see no reason why they wouldn't go straight to TS Emily...is that 5 out of 5 straight to TS this year?!

Bret started as a TD. The only one.

Which tells me--in contrast to what some here are saying--that the NHC has actually been more conservative than usual prior to naming storms this year. (Well... Or that for some odd reason the associated storms are simply more windy from the get-go. Could be either.)

[stormreader]

As stated earlier, we'll look for models to get a better handle on the system now that its been intialized. But don't be shocked if models are not all that uniform! The steering pattern ahead of this system is quite delicate. The storm will move WNW more or less for a period of days beneath the Atlantic Ridge. But the ridge is not all that strong. On the other hand there doesn't look to be any significant troughing down the road that we can really hang our hats on which will definitely pick this system up at a particular time and place. So don't be surprised if the models remain quite a bit more varied that we're used to.

[jonj2040]

#41


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[shaggy]

18z GFS is now the eastern Global Outlier. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and that the GFS comes back west. All the other Global models are well west of this.

you'd have thought so, though with a stronger system and the GFS enjoyment of bringing in stronger troughs then actually occur it may well be too far east...

Just a case of wait and see...think the 18z GFS may well have gone too far east this run.

That big of a change in just one cycle is always to be taken with a grain of salt. My only concern is that the GFS adjusted to new data from the gulfstream flights which could have led to the change giving the change more validity?

[OURAGAN]

NRL Has TD5 at 15N / 58,5W TO THE EAST AND NOT AT 60,5W

[wxman57]

NRL Has TD5 at 15N / 58,5W TO THE EAST AND NOT AT 60,5W

That would be incorrect, then, the center is west of 61W now.

[jpigott]

Decisions, decisions . . .

Heading up to the north Georgia mountains on Thursday night. Looks like I either need to secure the house and bring in the patio furniture before I leave or push back the trip a couple days.

[wxman57]

Decisions, decisions . . .

Heading up to the north Georgia mountains on Thursday night. Looks like I either need to secure the house and bring in the patio furniture before I leave or push back the trip a couple days.

If you're looking for suggestions, then you need to identify your location on your profile.

[midnight8]

Fair chance of Emily moving across Haiti or the DR Thursday and reaching near SE Florida Saturday morning. I think the initial NHC track will have it passing east of Florida, as the consensus models are there. However, it could very easily move into the southern Peninsula. Has a rough road in its path, fighting dry air and high terrain of the DR or even eastern Cuba. May be hard to reach hurricane strength before impacting Florida. Could be close though. Very many uncertainties in the intensity forecast and therefore the track forecast.

What are the odds of this thing staying kinda week and scooting over into the gulf? Seems to have been shifting west for a while.

[KWT]

That big of a change in just one cycle is always to be taken with a grain of salt. My only concern is that the GFS adjusted to new data from the gulfstream flights which could have led to the change giving the change more validity?

I maybe wrong here but I believe most of that data will go into the 00z run.

of course it could easily be as you say that the model has just spotted a new trend, nothing to say its one or the other yet.

[Bocadude85]

Decisions, decisions . . .

Heading up to the north Georgia mountains on Thursday night. Looks like I either need to secure the house and bring in the patio furniture before I leave or push back the trip a couple days.

If you're looking for suggestions, then you need to identify your location on your profile.

I think he or she is in Palm Beach or Broward county if I remember correctly

[TwisterFanatic]

18z GFS is now the eastern Global Outlier. I believe the truth lies somewhere in the middle and that the GFS comes back west. All the other Global models are well west of this.

you'd have thought so, though with a stronger system and the GFS enjoyment of bringing in stronger troughs then actually occur it may well be too far east...

Just a case of wait and see...think the 18z GFS may well have gone too far east this run.

That big of a change in just one cycle is always to be taken with a grain of salt. My only concern is that the GFS adjusted to new data from the gulfstream flights which could have led to the change giving the change more validity?

I'm almost certain that will be fed into the 0z package.

[Vortex]

Here we go folks...Could really ramp up later tonight....

[Extratropical94]

You're welcome. Also many thanks to you jonj2040 for keeping us updated with the latest GE imagery.
Here comes Observation 42

000
URNT15 KNHC 012306
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 42 20110801
225600 1448N 06049W 9761 00284 0081 +244 +221 140016 016 016 002 03
225630 1449N 06050W 9764 00280 0081 +242 +222 142015 016 019 002 03
225700 1450N 06051W 9767 00276 0080 +239 +223 145014 016 016 001 03
225730 1451N 06052W 9768 00274 0079 +237 +223 160013 014 017 001 03
225800 1452N 06053W 9761 00281 0078 +239 +223 181016 018 010 002 03
225830 1453N 06054W 9769 00272 0077 +235 +223 181013 014 009 003 03
225900 1454N 06056W 9760 00279 0075 +240 +222 190012 013 009 002 03
225930 1455N 06057W 9761 00276 0073 +242 +222 201012 013 007 002 03
230000 1456N 06058W 9765 00272 0072 +241 +222 196013 015 010 000 03
230030 1456N 06100W 9760 00277 0071 +243 +222 201009 011 011 000 03
230100 1456N 06101W 9765 00271 0072 +232 +222 197017 019 020 003 03
230130 1457N 06103W 9764 00271 0073 +207 //// 199021 022 036 016 05
230200 1457N 06104W 9772 00256 0065 +213 //// 208025 026 044 014 05
230230 1458N 06106W 9765 00263 0064 +230 +209 200023 024 036 022 00
230300 1458N 06107W 9759 00274 0071 +226 +204 185019 021 034 016 03
230330 1458N 06109W 9772 00264 0075 +206 +200 187013 016 045 027 03
230400 1459N 06110W 9761 00275 0076 +204 +197 197014 016 045 031 00
230430 1459N 06112W 9753 00287 0078 +227 +194 173015 016 031 013 03
230500 1459N 06113W 9762 00278 0077 +244 +193 153011 014 022 004 03
230530 1459N 06115W 9761 00282 0079 +240 +195 140006 006 009 003 03
$$
;

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Decisions, decisions . . .

Heading up to the north Georgia mountains on Thursday night. Looks like I either need to secure the house and bring in the patio furniture before I leave or push back the trip a couple days.

If you're looking for suggestions, then you need to identify your location on your profile.

wxman57 always pay attn to your post Have a house in Key Largo and live i Miami any advice of what may come.

[jpigott]

Decisions, decisions . . .

Heading up to the north Georgia mountains on Thursday night. Looks like I either need to secure the house and bring in the patio furniture before I leave or push back the trip a couple days.

If you're looking for suggestions, then you need to identify your location on your profile.

Not only I'm I weather illiterate, I'm apparently computer illiterate as well.

Boca Dude is right, I live in Palm Beach County. About 5-10 miles north of West Palm and about 1/3 mile inland.

[AdamFirst]

Has a rough road in its path, fighting dry air and high terrain of the DR or even eastern Cuba.

Where's the dry air coming from?

[KWT]

Fair chance of Emily moving across Haiti or the DR Thursday and reaching near SE Florida Saturday morning. I think the initial NHC track will have it passing east of Florida, as the consensus models are there. However, it could very easily move into the southern Peninsula. Has a rough road in its path, fighting dry air and high terrain of the DR or even eastern Cuba. May be hard to reach hurricane strength before impacting Florida. Could be close though. Very many uncertainties in the intensity forecast and therefore the track forecast.

Good post.

I think its got a shot at becoming a hurricane before Hispaniola, though its a close call for sure. After Hispaniola, its abit too hard to call now because it obviouisly depends on the exact track, but what I will say is conditions look good, esp the further north this can get in the Bahamas towards that weak upper ridge that forms.

As for Florida, tough call, given its finally formed I think the westward adjustments will be slim and the models may well trend back east a little now. Could well see the system gain latitude till Hispaniola then bend back to the WNW due to being weaker/disconnected from the MLC and also the development of that weak upper ridge.