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chrisjslucia wrote:The piece of junk is putting out a breathtaking display to our west - stunning lightning storm. Someone asked what difference a few hours makes - well if it allows local officials to open shelters sooner rather than (a few hours) later, could be quite a bit!
Anyway before the power goes, good luck to my friends in the Leewards, be safe.
KWT wrote:wxman57 wrote:Fair chance of Emily moving across Haiti or the DR Thursday and reaching near SE Florida Saturday morning. I think the initial NHC track will have it passing east of Florida, as the consensus models are there. However, it could very easily move into the southern Peninsula. Has a rough road in its path, fighting dry air and high terrain of the DR or even eastern Cuba. May be hard to reach hurricane strength before impacting Florida. Could be close though. Very many uncertainties in the intensity forecast and therefore the track forecast.
Good post.
I think its got a shot at becoming a hurricane before Hispaniola, though its a close call for sure. After Hispaniola, its abit too hard to call now because it obviouisly depends on the exact track, but what I will say is conditions look good, esp the further north this can get in the Bahamas towards that weak upper ridge that forms.
As for Florida, tough call, given its finally formed I think the westward adjustments will be slim and the models may well trend back east a little now. Could well see the system gain latitude till Hispaniola then bend back to the WNW due to being weaker/disconnected from the MLC and also the development of that weak upper ridge.
wxman57 wrote:jpigott wrote:Decisions, decisions . . .
Heading up to the north Georgia mountains on Thursday night. Looks like I either need to secure the house and bring in the patio furniture before I leave or push back the trip a couple days.
If you're looking for suggestions, then you need to identify your location on your profile.
midnight8 wrote:wxman57 wrote:Fair chance of Emily moving across Haiti or the DR Thursday and reaching near SE Florida Saturday morning. I think the initial NHC track will have it passing east of Florida, as the consensus models are there. However, it could very easily move into the southern Peninsula. Has a rough road in its path, fighting dry air and high terrain of the DR or even eastern Cuba. May be hard to reach hurricane strength before impacting Florida. Could be close though. Very many uncertainties in the intensity forecast and therefore the track forecast.
What are the odds of this thing staying kinda week and scooting over into the gulf? Seems to have been shifting west for a while.
AdamFirst wrote:wxman57 wrote: Has a rough road in its path, fighting dry air and high terrain of the DR or even eastern Cuba.
Where's the dry air coming from?
madinina wrote:Hi,
Sorry to insist...
Emily or not?
What's happen for the sea? Because there are people on the sea, for a course of "yoles"( famous boat from martinique). They are in "protected aera" near coast, for the night...
For the moment, people think it will be just rain, that's right? The alert change just one hour and half ago.
Thanks you
KWT wrote:Keep safe Gustywind, keeps us informed via the obs/reports thread!
Will be interesting to see how high NHC go before the first landfall, I'm thinking they may go upto 60kts but stay shy of the the hurricane status forecast for now, at least this side of Hispaniola...
if the conditions are favorable because of the poweroutages. Looks like a long and busy night for us 
madinina wrote:Hi,
Sorry to insist...
Emily or not?
What's happen for the sea? Because there are people on the sea, for a course of "yoles"( famous boat from martinique). They are in "protected aera" near coast, for the night...
For the moment, people think it will be just rain, that's right? The alert change just one hour and half ago.
Thanks you
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