ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[jonj2040]

#43


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[knotimpaired]

Keep safe Gustywind, keeps us informed via the obs/reports thread!

Will be interesting to see how high NHC go before the first landfall, I'm thinking they may go upto 60kts but stay shy of the the hurricane status forecast for now, at least this side of Hispaniola...

Thanks KWT i will try if the conditions are favorable because of the poweroutages. Looks like a long and busy night for us

Stay safe Gusty, Vieques is wishing you well.

[hurricanefloyd5]

TWC has a "tropics watch" outlined for Saturday on the 7 day outlook here in Tampa. Interesting.

same here in orlando too

[weatherSnoop]

Finally ... lol

great work the last few days, Aric...Thanks for all of your input. Guess we'll see more of you with 92L

Appreciate all you provide to the board

Lee

[SeaBrz_FL]

Just popping in for my annual debut and I am so glad to see so many regular posters giving their excellent insights about (pre?) Emily. I will stay back in the gallery for most of the time, as usual, but want to reiterate what Knotimpaired has said about supporting this great site.

Donations are what keeps this site going. I popped over a small donation the other day and if everyone else did (and many, many have) it would possibly pay for another server if needed for the heavy periods such as this. Our website now has 5 servers and if it was not for donationns

So help Storm2k out by hitting that paypal button

[Florida1118]

TWC has a "tropics watch" outlined for Saturday on the 7 day outlook here in Tampa. Interesting.

same here in orlando too

They must have just started doing that...Ive never seen that before

[shaggy]

That big of a change in just one cycle is always to be taken with a grain of salt. My only concern is that the GFS adjusted to new data from the gulfstream flights which could have led to the change giving the change more validity?

I maybe wrong here but I believe most of that data will go into the 00z run.

of course it could easily be as you say that the model has just spotted a new trend, nothing to say its one or the other yet.

K thx. I was just confused by how the 18z gfs just evaporates the ridge and jumped so far to the east again. Curious how the other models run this evening.

[KWT]

Interesting the center still seems a little wishy-washy looking at the last set of reports come in. I'm sure its just the early formative flux you see with these sorts of systems.

[SouthDadeFish]

Convection continues to expand over the center. Looking very good:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _floater_1

[ROCK]

Nogaps doesn't make much sense, not sure why it would weaken into the Caribbean for?

I'd treat that as an outlier for now...

I suspect the stronger model reposnses for now will probably be more dependable.

it runs it the length of Cuba thats why....Cuba while flat on the northern end has moutains on the southern half....

[SouthDadeFish]

Interesting the center still seems a little wishy-washy looking at the last set of reports come in. I'm sure its just the early formative flux you see with these sorts of systems.

I agree. Still seems to be somewhat broad. Probably sliding around a lot as the vorticity centers try to become stacked.

[Extratropical94]

Observation 44


000
URNT15 KNHC 012326
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 44 20110801
231600 1516N 06059W 9766 00277 0085 +213 +201 135025 030 032 008 00
231630 1517N 06058W 9763 00281 0082 +233 +200 132032 033 028 004 00
231700 1519N 06057W 9765 00281 0083 +236 +199 132030 032 025 002 00
231730 1520N 06056W 9767 00280 0085 +238 +200 129030 031 026 002 03
231800 1521N 06055W 9764 00283 0085 +236 +203 126032 032 026 003 00
231830 1522N 06054W 9761 00287 0085 +238 +206 124029 030 026 001 03
231900 1523N 06053W 9764 00285 0085 +238 +209 125028 030 024 002 03
231930 1524N 06052W 9764 00284 0085 +244 +211 125029 029 024 001 03
232000 1525N 06051W 9761 00289 0087 +237 +214 118028 029 025 000 03
232030 1526N 06050W 9765 00285 0087 +235 +216 117030 031 026 001 03
232100 1527N 06048W 9766 00285 0088 +235 +218 118031 032 027 001 00
232130 1528N 06047W 9763 00287 0088 +235 +219 119031 032 027 001 03
232200 1528N 06046W 9762 00289 0089 +235 +220 122031 031 026 002 00
232230 1529N 06045W 9762 00290 0090 +235 +220 123031 032 027 001 00
232300 1530N 06044W 9762 00291 0091 +235 +221 123030 031 026 001 03
232330 1531N 06043W 9764 00290 0091 +235 +221 122029 030 025 002 00
232400 1532N 06042W 9764 00289 0092 +235 +222 122029 029 026 001 00
232430 1533N 06041W 9762 00292 0092 +235 +222 121029 030 027 001 03
232500 1534N 06040W 9761 00292 0092 +235 +221 120029 030 025 003 00
232530 1535N 06039W 9763 00291 0093 +235 +221 121030 031 027 001 03
$$
;

[Gustywind]

Hi,

Sorry to insist...
Emily or not?
What's happen for the sea? Because there are people on the sea, for a course of "yoles"( famous boat from martinique). They are in "protected aera" near coast, for the night...
For the moment, people think it will be just rain, that's right? The alert change just one hour and half ago.
Thanks you

Oh my godness my friend! Good job but that's insane concerning this event ( famous racing boat) because of Martinica is under an orange code for strong showers and tsorms since 5 PM!!!
Off topic, the radio ( Radio Caribbean International Guadeloupe) at 6PM were saying that the authorities won't pass to another code level (red) while a TD or Emily is approaching dangerously our area...waouw waouw troubles troubles in store in these two islands .

[Vortex]

Martinque radar...much better looking on radar...Very near martinque/dominica...



http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html

[underthwx]

be safe G.W.

[Gustywind]

Hi,

Sorry to insist...
Emily or not?
What's happen for the sea? Because there are people on the sea, for a course of "yoles"( famous boat from martinique). They are in "protected aera" near coast, for the night...
For the moment, people think it will be just rain, that's right? The alert change just one hour and half ago.
Thanks you

Oh my godness my friend! Good job but that's insane concerning this event ( famous racing boat) because of Martinica is under an orange code for strong showers and tsorms since 5 PM!!!
Off topic, the radio ( Radio Caribbean International Guadeloupe) at 6PM were saying that the authorities won't pass to another code level (red) while a TD or Emily is approaching dangerously our area...waouw waouw troubles troubles in store in these two islands .

[Vortex]

banding tightening and convection firing right over the center....Shes about ready for take off....

[Gustywind]

[wxman57]

Finally, Emily advisory released.

[CrazyC83]

Uhhh, that came out of nowhere...I left this afternoon sensing a weakening system and we now have Emily.