ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[KWT]

The fast westward motion now would indicate a stronger ridge to the north. than some models have initialized. this would lead to a track right in line with the NHC

Yeah the NHC track looks like a good compramise between the model solutions and the initial starting conditons out there. Probably a 275 motion for now I reckon.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Atlantic Tropical Storm EMILY TROPICAL Cyclone Update
08/01/2011 07:43 PM EDT


000
WTNT65 KNHC 012343
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
745 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

AT 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[sunnyday]

South Fl. doesn't want to be in the cone! It will probably change several times, won't it? I HOPE!!

[sprink52]

Damn It all....I'm flying out of Ft. Lauderdale Friday PM to a High School Reunion in Alabama...oh well ....we will see!!!

[AdamFirst]

If South Florida is still in the cone on Wednesday I'll begin to be concerned.

For now, stay vigilant and stay tuned to your local news, the National Hurricane Center and the National Weather Service, and of course...Storm2k.

[psyclone]

it seems to me that the first track is often subject to radical revisions. It will be interesting to if that's the case witht this one. also, i'm watching how the storm traverses hispaniola. subtle changes in the track could make a big difference there.

[knotimpaired]

Atlantic Tropical Storm EMILY TROPICAL Cyclone Update
08/01/2011 07:43 PM EDT


000
WTNT65 KNHC 012343
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
745 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

AT 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Are you kidding me? Is someone asleep at the job?

[KWT]

psyclone, very true, the first track can change alot but then again this system has been on the cusp of being a storm for so long then I wouldn't be surprised if the models already have a pretty good grip on the set-up...

I suspect we'll see a slight westward adjustment yet...esp if some peoples idea of a still fairly strong low level flow to the west is right.

[jlauderdal]

South Fl. doesn't want to be in the cone! It will probably change several times, won't it? I HOPE!!

speak for yourself, being in the crosshairs at 5 days is a good thing

[Cainer]

Watch out everyone, here comes STORM_FULLNAME! lol

[JPmia]

NHC: Hurricane projected to approach south Florida this weekend. This could be a big story.

yes it will be here.. Channel 7 news will go nuts over this one for sure

[ROCK]

I am not too impressed with that NHC track. though the southern cone of error the first 72hrs seems about right. I think they are pulling it out to soon....

[southerngale]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 012352
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

CORRECTED FOR DETAILS IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND
ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN






------------------------------------------






000
WTNT25 KNHC 012355
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY
SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
2330 UTC MON AUG 01 2011

CORRECTED FOR DETAILS IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND
ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 01/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 62.0W AT 01/2330Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 60.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N 63.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 15SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N 68.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N 70.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 45SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.0N 79.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 62.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN






-------------------------------------------



000
WTNT45 KNHC 012335
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOW THAT A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER HAS FINALLY FORMED NEAR THE ISLAND
OF DOMINICA...MARKING THE FORMATION OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT IS BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF AROUND
45 KT IN DEEP CONVECTION NORTH OF THE CENTER. AS EVIDENCED BY THE
AMOUNT OF TIME IT TOOK THIS SYSTEM TO CONSOLIDATE AROUND A SINGLE
CENTER...THE ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR
STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTOR
APPEARS TO BE MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 50 PERCENT OR
LESS AS SEEN IN THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND THEN ASSUMES THAT
EMILY WILL WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS HISPANIOLA IN 48 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THAT TIME...IF EMILY SURVIVES THE INTERACTION WITH THE
RUGGED TERRAIN ON THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS SHOWN NEAR
THE END OF THE PERIOD...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
IVCN CONSENSUS BY DAY 5. NEEDLESS TO SAY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE GIVEN THE PRESENT ORGANIZATION OF THE
SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LAND INTERACTION IN 2 OR 3 DAYS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...AND THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN 275/15. EMILY IS
CURRENTLY SITUATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING THIS RIDGE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW EMILY TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN A LITTLE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS.
BEYOND THAT TIME...THE TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND
DEPENDS ON WHAT SHAPE EMILY IS IN AFTER IT MOVES PAST HISPANIOLA
AND HOW MUCH THE RIDGE RE-BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE...WITH THE ECMWF TAKING A
WEAKER CYCLONE FARTHEST TO THE WEST SHOWING A TRACK NEAR SOUTHERN
FLORIDA...WHILE THE GFDL AND THE NEW 18Z GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE
RIGHT WITH A TRACK NEAR OR EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.

GIVEN THE FORECAST PARTICULARS...A VARIETY OF TROPICAL STORM WATCHES
AND WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA.

NOTE...THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL TAKE THE PLACE OF THE STANDARD
0000 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL THE
THE FULL ADVISORY ISSUED AT 0300 UTC/1100 PM AST/EDT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2330Z 15.2N 62.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.6N 63.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 16.5N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.4N 68.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.4N 70.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 74.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 05/1800Z 24.0N 77.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 26.0N 79.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Florida1118]

Watch out everyone, here comes STORM_FULLNAME! lol

LOL!

[lebron23]

HWRF toward SC or NC

[Snow Deprived365]

My Sister and Brother in Law are scheduled to arrive on Peter Island in the British Virgin Islands tomorrow for vacation. What kind of weather do you guys see them having?

[Florida1118]

Wait, did they just deactivate it? It no longer appears next to Eugine...

[Evil Jeremy]

18z HWRF faster and more east than previously. Has it riding along the coast of Florida and the Carolina's.

[hurricanefloyd5]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011




THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DETERMINE OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL
INTENSITY, BUT STILL TRACKS THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OR EAST. THE LATEST
NHC/HPC TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND THEN TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHWEST, REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE TRACK FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
WITH SEVERAL FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED.

[ronjon]

Average 5 day track error for NHC is 250 miles. I wouldn't be too concerned right now in S FL.