ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Aric Dunn]

the southern route is much more conducive around hispanola than the northern. if that pans out she should hold together well.

[wzrgirl1]

Average 5 day track error for NHC is 250 miles. I wouldn't be too concerned right now in S FL.

But while we are in the cone we should be concerned.

[Rainband]

Average 5 day track error for NHC is 250 miles. I wouldn't be too concerned right now in S FL.

georges but to the right ......

[JPmia]

perNHC 7:30 release advisrory places a hurricane about 20 miles off the coast of se florida..26.0 79.5...

that is our latitude here in Ft. Lauderdale Vortex .. very interesting couple of days ahead. Generally, when you're in the cone of death in the first advisory it thankfully changes later, except for Wilma we were in the cone for almost a week.

[KWT]

I am not too impressed with that NHC track. though the southern cone of error the first 72hrs seems about right. I think they are pulling it out to soon....

I don't know, thats pretty much slap bang in the middle dof the models runs at the moment, maybe even leaning slightly on the south side of the consensus...

right now with the models shifting east then west on different runs, I'm not sure what more they could have done...

A long way to go yet, and I think Hispaniola/E.Cuba probably needs to be keeping a closer eye on this system...

Ps, much further west and that will hit Haiti close to where that major earthquake occured last year, probably don't need a borderline hurricane coming in...

[ronjon]

Average 5 day track error for NHC is 250 miles. I wouldn't be too concerned right now in S FL.

But while we are in the cone we should be concerned.

I start getting concerned when you are in the 3 day cone.

[jlauderdal]

Average 5 day track error for NHC is 250 miles. I wouldn't be too concerned right now in S FL.

ike comes to mind

[hurricanefloyd5]

could this be a charlie track in the eastern gomex and then back into florida?

[KWT]

the southern route is much more conducive around hispanola than the northern. if that pans out she should hold together well.

Yep but then that path suggests a run up Cuba..which in the long run will probably be worse for the systems health then the northern option, esp given it quite likely wouldn't get a huge amount of time over water before it gets close to Florida in that sort of track.

[Cainer]

I think Ernesto 2006 could be a close analogue, albeit more to the east. Approaching minimal hurricane intensity as it nears Hispaniola, then nearing hurricane intensity again as it makes its second landfall. All depends on the track though really - the weaker it is as it hits Hispaniola, the more likely it will restrengthen as it reaches the Bahamas.

The preceding post is NOT an official forecast but just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFDL loses Emily after hitting Hispaniola.

[cheezyWXguy]

link?

[Aric Dunn]

I keep reading posts about that its nothing to worry about being in the first advisory cone... dont want to burst your bubbles but the NHC almost always follows the TVCN which is a consensus model and that model has been over Florida in some way for the last almost 2 days. so it is by no means a rule of thumb.

[KWT]

FWIW i'm not sure the environment is quite as marginal as the NHC believe, it took its time to get going but it pulled itself together in something like 2-4hrs...I think conditions weren't great till just recently but its hit a higher area of convergence, hence the strong convective uptick in the last few hours despite Dmin.

[Vortex]

Looking much better on the IR tonight...What a difference a few hours makes.

[Bocadude85]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
735 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011




THE EVOLUTION OF THE POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL DETERMINE OUR
WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE 12Z GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE OVERALL
INTENSITY, BUT STILL TRACKS THE LOW TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA, WHILE
OTHER MODELS KEEP IT FURTHER TO THE SOUTH OR EAST. THE LATEST
NHC/HPC TRACK TAKES THE SYSTEM NEAR ANDROS ISLAND AND THEN TOWARD
THE NORTH NORTHWEST, REMAINING JUST EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OVERALL MODEL
TREND OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN TO PUSH THE TRACK FURTHER
TO THE WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED
WITH SEVERAL FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS AND AMENDMENTS LIKELY NEEDED TO
THE FORECAST. STAY TUNED.

That was written at 3:16pm this afternoon

[northjaxpro]

could this be a charlie track in the eastern gomex and then back into florida?

At this point, I would not rule out any track from the Eastern GOM to all around the FL peninsula and all up along the SE U.S. coastline. All interests in these areas need to pay attention extremely close to Emily's progress all week thorugh the weekend.

[Aric Dunn]

the southern route is much more conducive around hispanola than the northern. if that pans out she should hold together well.

Yep but then that path suggests a run up Cuba..which in the long run will probably be worse for the systems health then the northern option, esp given it quite likely wouldn't get a huge amount of time over water before it gets close to Florida in that sort of track.

dont forget the angle of approach it could have little time over water or a lot more... it could slide of the east coast a little before landfall.

[KWT]

18z GFDL loses Emily after hitting Hispaniola.

A possible solution but as others have said its rather rare for a system to totally die from interaction with Hispaniola...so I'll take that with a pinch of salt...

[Gustywind]