ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[northjaxpro]

I keep reading posts about that its nothing to worry about being in the first advisory cone... dont want to burst your bubbles but the NHC almost always follows the TVCN which is a consensus model and that model has been over Florida in some way for the last almost 2 days. so it is by no means a rule of thumb.

Excellent point Aric.

[rockyman]

18z GFDL:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[shaggy]

18z HWRF faster and more east than previously. Has it riding along the coast of Florida and the Carolina's.

That would almost be a hit on NC if it wasn't so sharp on the recurve(that is climatologically favored) and was more of a gradual recurve. A slightly stronger ridge and a more NNE motion and it would be but its a LONG way out and alot is and will change between now and then.

[ronjon]

I keep reading posts about that its nothing to worry about being in the first advisory cone... dont want to burst your bubbles but the NHC almost always follows the TVCN which is a consensus model and that model has been over Florida in some way for the last almost 2 days. so it is by no means a rule of thumb.

Yeah Aric but the avg error is 250 miles at 5 days. I can't tell you how many times the track changed in the past based on the 5 day projection. If we had solid ridging and the storm was just going to ride the edge of the ridge I might be concerned. But this storm has got serious land interaction and trough/ridge building dynamics that are still evolving. I'd say at this point, Emily could go well east of FL and on the other extreme end up in the central GOM.

[KWT]

Ah well the GFDL starts out too weak...

Hits Hispaniola as a 25kts barely closed circulation, thats why it destroys it, because there isn't much there in the first place.

[AdamFirst]

These models are all trash.

00z we'll finally get some real information.

[Aric Dunn]

well on a side note.. if it follows the NHC track it should be completely in PR radar range by morning

can already see the convection firing over the center on long range.

[KWT]

well on a side note.. if it follows the NHC track it should be completely in PR radar range by morning

can already see the convection firing over the center on long range.

Thats going to be interesting to see, radar always makes for an interesting look into the mid levels of a systems core, will get a good indication of whether any inner core maybe forming.

[Evil Jeremy]

Looks like the 18z model trend was back east. The 00z run will be interesting, it will be the first to initialize as a tropical storm, and it will have recon data.

[Gustywind]

[Aric Dunn]

I keep reading posts about that its nothing to worry about being in the first advisory cone... dont want to burst your bubbles but the NHC almost always follows the TVCN which is a consensus model and that model has been over Florida in some way for the last almost 2 days. so it is by no means a rule of thumb.

Yeah Aric but the avg error is 250 miles at 5 days. I can't tell you how many times the track changed in the past based on the 5 day projection. If we had solid ridging and the storm was just going to ride the edge of the ridge I might be concerned. But this storm has got serious land interaction and trough/ridge building dynamics that are still evolving. I'd say at this point, Emily could go well east of FL and on the other extreme end up in the central GOM.

thats not what I was saying.. the fact that over many runs the model has basically been tracking over or very near florida should tell you something about this forecast.. means its very likely that something close to it will evolve .. of course cant say for sure but odd ball tracks are less likely at this point..

[knotimpaired]

Atlantic Tropical Storm EMILY TROPICAL Cyclone Update
08/01/2011 07:43 PM EDT


000
WTNT65 KNHC 012343
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
745 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

AT 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Are you kidding me? Is someone asleep at the job?

It appears this fell on the wayside.

Why would the DR drop it from a warning to a watch? What supports that?

[cheezyWXguy]

Atlantic Tropical Storm EMILY TROPICAL Cyclone Update
08/01/2011 07:43 PM EDT


000
WTNT65 KNHC 012343
TCUAT5

TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
745 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

AT 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

Are you kidding me? Is someone asleep at the job?

It appears this fell on the wayside.

Why would the DR drop it from a warning to a watch? What supports that?

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

[ronjon]

Don't know if anyone posted the 3 km HWRF at 12z - worst nightmare for east coast of FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080112-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Dean4Storms]

Crazy runs right there. The 12Z GFS had strong ridging out east of FL and now this run it vanishes.

[Aric Dunn]

Next bouy to watch.. should come very close overnight

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42060

[knotimpaired]

Just so I am clear, why do you think the DR took it to a TS warning to start with?

[Rainband]

Don't know if anyone posted the 3 km HWRF at 12z - worst nightmare for east coast of FL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080112-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

and us ...

[Aric Dunn]

dang.. look at the convection already wraping around the tiny center.. maybe it will end up being stronger than forecast..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

[chrisjslucia]

Worth noting recon seems to suggest this has two centers at the moment...unless one of them was just an eddy...but the southern one we all thought was an eddy looks a little on the large side to be jsut a simple eddy...

KWT, have you worked out any more about this "two centres" possibility? Visually there is one major set of lightning coming from our South and the sat pictures seem to suggest something there. Sorry if you've dealt with this but I'm struggling to keep up with the postings.