ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[LaBreeze]

Gut feeling: this is not a Gulf storm.

[stormreader]

The fast westward motion now would indicate a stronger ridge to the north. than some models have initialized. this would lead to a track right in line with the NHC

Might be the case. We'll wait and see. But I feel better now about my posts yesterday afternoon calling for the storm to encounter Fl in the Keys-Everglades region with a move then into the E GOM.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the HWrf bends back west.. is tricky.. that ridge that build in will be key..

if it goes north of hispanola than florida less likely but if goes south more likely

[SeaBrz_FL]

South Fl. doesn't want to be in the cone! It will probably change several times, won't it? I HOPE!!

speak for yourself, being in the crosshairs at 5 days is a good thing

Totally agree with you JLaud. Guess we've hung out here for too many years

I'd love Cape Canaveral to be in the 5-day crosshairs right now.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

psyclone, very true, the first track can change alot but then again this system has been on the cusp of being a storm for so long then I wouldn't be surprised if the models already have a pretty good grip on the set-up...

I suspect we'll see a slight westward adjustment yet...esp if some peoples idea of a still fairly strong low level flow to the west is right.

I had mentioned a couple days ago when everyone was knocking the NOGAPS as bad a model as it is at times one day may be correct. Not a bad call if it ends up on that track.

[CrazyC83]

What are the chances this could rapidly deepen before hitting Hispaniola (or Cuba or Puerto Rico)?

[Dave]

Next mission:

FLIGHT THREE -- TEAL 70
A. 02/0600Z,1200Z
B. AFXXX 0605A CYCLONE
C. 02/0430Z
D. 15.4N 60.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 01/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,0000 FT

Departs at 0030 Hrs (12:30 am edt)

[LaBreeze]

dang.. look at the convection already wraping around the tiny center.. maybe it will end up being stronger than forecast..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

What is the predicted strength of Emily eventually at this time? Just wondering. Is there going to be a trough to pick Emily up and recurve? Thanks in advance (I guess the answers to my questions are found elsewhere, but I like reading what you guys have to say).

[stormhunter7]

last few radar images from the islands shows a nice low building up as it pass the island chain... very nice storms near center!

[Aric Dunn]

and actually it still seems to at least according the radar .. more slightly s of due west... interesting..

[KWT]

Well that version of the HWRF is very worrying, of course still a long way out yet!

Can't wait to wake up and see what the 00z run does...

[CrazyC83]

My gut feeling is that this runs the southern periphery of the cone - and enters the Gulf.

[weatherSnoop]

I loaded google earth on pc today and did a practice post. I should be able to help some.

[SunnyThoughts]

dang.. look at the convection already wraping around the tiny center.. maybe it will end up being stronger than forecast..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

Recon headed back out around midnight, guess we'll know then if she has intensified any more.

[Florida1118]

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

A watch is 36 hours out as of last year

[SouthDadeFish]

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

Actually the criteria for a warning is now 36 hours. Watches are now 48 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

you all did look at the other hwrf right ... lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noa ... =Animation

[HurricaneWarning92]

and actually it still seems to at least according the radar .. more slightly s of due west... interesting..

I noticed that too but it does look like it is getting better organized... so its weird.

[KWT]

dang.. look at the convection already wraping around the tiny center.. maybe it will end up being stronger than forecast..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

Yeah that convection does look like its wrapping around, thats a very good long loop there!

I was thinking that maybe conditions were a little bit then the NHC were thinking but we;ll have to see how the next few hours go.

[knotimpaired]

Ok folks, I have lived here for 7.5 years.

Granted I am ashamed to say I do not follow weather up north because we came here to escape it.

But truly I would like to know what model do you feel is the most accurate.

While many follow this thread, some constantly go back to S2K weather library to understand some of your terms.

Can you be kind to us that do not have a science degree.... Laymen's terms please.