ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[stormreader]

Crazy runs right there. The 12Z GFS had strong ridging out east of FL and now this run it vanishes.

Might be that way for longer than most would care to admit. I really don't think that steering currents are dominant enough. Yes the ridge would appear to be expanding westward (thus model shifts generally west) but its not all that strong, and you might continue to see runs well east of Fl--even as time dwindles down with the ultimate track to be more along the western end of the model runs. All things being equal the storm's inertia carrying it there, until finally further west-- Extreme E GOM there is enough weakness for the storm to be picked up.

[Aric Dunn]

dang.. look at the convection already wraping around the tiny center.. maybe it will end up being stronger than forecast..

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

Recon headed back out around midnight, guess we'll know then if she has intensified any more.

in the mean time watch that bouy ... its pretty close.. could see some good pressure falls

[AdamFirst]

Ok folks, I have lived here for 7.5 years.

Granted I am ashamed to say I do not follow weather up north because we came here to escape it.

But truly I would like to know what model do you feel is the most accurate.

While many follow this thread, some constantly go back to S2K weather library to understand some of your terms.

Can you be kind to us that do not have a science degree.... Laymen's terms please.

Can't go wrong with the TVCN.

[jlauderdal]

South Fl. doesn't want to be in the cone! It will probably change several times, won't it? I HOPE!!

speak for yourself, being in the crosshairs at 5 days is a good thing

Totally agree with you JLaud. Guess we've hung out here for too many years

I'd love Cape Canaveral to be in the 5-day crosshairs right now.

one of these times we will get drilled on a 5 day but until it happens im more than happy to be sitting close to a 5 day, been down this road way too many times to see it differently

[boca]

Agree on all accounts except for Wilma.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

The fast westward motion now would indicate a stronger ridge to the north. than some models have initialized. this would lead to a track right in line with the NHC

Might be the case. We'll wait and see. But I feel better now about my posts yesterday afternoon calling for the storm to encounter Fl in the Keys-Everglades region with a move then into the E GOM.

I was trying to clarify this yesterday,

So you feel your on track or it will move ? Have a house in Key Largo where do you feel it will come on shore.

[plasticup]

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

Actually the criteria for a warning is now 36 hours. Watches are now 48 hours.

Not to be persnickety, but a true landfall isn't required. The area need only be at risk of experiencing a part of the wind field.

[knotimpaired]

Ok folks, I have lived here for 7.5 years.

Granted I am ashamed to say I do not follow weather up north because we came here to escape it.

But truly I would like to know what model do you feel is the most accurate.

While many follow this thread, some constantly go back to S2K weather library to understand some of your terms.

Can you be kind to us that do not have a science degree.... Laymen's terms please.

Can't go wrong with the TVCN.

I hope you do not get any damage from Emily, your community has suffered enough.

K

[SouthDadeFish]

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

Actually the criteria for a warning is now 36 hours. Watches are now 48 hours.

Not to be persnickety, but a true landfall isn't required. The area need only be at risk of experiencing a part of the wind field.

You are correct. I don't agree with taking down the warnings...

[plasticup]

Ok folks, I have lived here for 7.5 years.

Granted I am ashamed to say I do not follow weather up north because we came here to escape it.

But truly I would like to know what model do you feel is the most accurate.

While many follow this thread, some constantly go back to S2K weather library to understand some of your terms.

Can you be kind to us that do not have a science degree.... Laymen's terms please.

I'd recommend the National Hurricane Center's products. They are accurate, well explained, and official: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

[knotimpaired]

There are 313 guests here.

Please take the time to register. Everyone is delighted that you follow us but we would like to know more about you and what area of the country weather affects you most.

K

[cycloneye]

00z Tropical Models

[northtxboy]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noa ... =Animation

[plasticup]

South Fl. doesn't want to be in the cone! It will probably change several times, won't it? I HOPE!!

speak for yourself, being in the crosshairs at 5 days is a good thing

Totally agree with you JLaud. Guess we've hung out here for too many years

I'd love Cape Canaveral to be in the 5-day crosshairs right now.

I wouldn't be so rough on the NHC. Their 5-day errors shrink every year, but even a few years back they were pretty good. Check out Hurricane Dean, where their 5-day errors were only a few miles from conception to demise. And when the cone is narrow like this, that means they have good confidence. I'd say 90+% chance that some part of Florida gets impact from this.

[Vortex]

IR contiunes to improve...movement appears due west even a hair s of west at times per radar..Interesting days ahead...

[ronjon]

Historical tracks of all cyclones within 2 degrees of Emily.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105_climo.html

[SNOW_JOKE]

What's the chances the convection to the East of the LLC is a seperate invest, with the main inflow (now EMILY) making use of the warmer Gulf waters. Vis doesn't show much on the NOAA loop, but the IR AVN and Water Vapor does seem to driver a dry-line wedge between both systems.

That might also explain the lack of westerlies seen up until the upgrade.

[TwisterFanatic]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noaahfiptc2.cgi?time=2011080112-invest91l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

Now, THAT would be bad.

[KWT]

Extrap motion is interesting, I think its interesting because the more westerly models stick with the extrap for a little longer whilst the eastern models go further WNW then the current motion.

[KWT]

Historical tracks of all cyclones within 2 degrees of Emily.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105_climo.html

Thats pretty eye-opening, very few systems recurved before Florida and most went well west.

Food for thought...