ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[SouthDadeFish]

* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* EMILY AL052011 08/02/11 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 42 46 50 58 63 62 69 70 73 77 75
V (KT) LAND 35 38 42 46 50 58 42 40 47 48 51 55 53
V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 44 47 52 40 39 41 44 49 58 66
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 6 2 5 10 9 15 20 19 19 5 12 8 11
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 3 2 4 2 0 0 0 -1 -2 1 0
SHEAR DIR 153 228 291 289 267 263 250 265 190 215 132 85 64
SST (C) 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.6 30.0 30.0 29.9
POT. INT. (KT) 150 151 151 151 151 149 149 152 156 162 169 168 165
ADJ. POT. INT. 152 150 149 149 147 142 140 143 145 149 150 145 140
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -51.7 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3
TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 10 12 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 11 11
700-500 MB RH 54 50 52 49 48 45 47 49 52 52 51 51 54
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 13 14 15 11 16 14 15 17 16
850 MB ENV VOR 36 35 29 23 18 13 16 7 40 19 13 -19 -24
200 MB DIV 53 61 29 54 74 43 29 26 40 -2 22 28 -10
700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -3 0 3 0 0 5 2 0 -5 -1
LAND (KM) 495 365 251 166 110 63 -80 44 99 180 231 100 35
LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.8 19.0 20.3 21.7 23.2 24.7 25.7 26.3
LONG(DEG W) 62.2 63.5 64.8 66.1 67.3 69.6 71.3 73.1 75.0 76.7 78.2 79.2 79.8
STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 13 13 12 11 10 11 11 10 8 5 4
HEAT CONTENT 72 81 76 70 74 87 81 48 72 40 2 58 42

Ships is showing increasing shear in the 36-72 hour time frame.

[ronjon]

Huge shift east on the BAMS. Recurve scenario gaining traction again?

[linkerweather]

XTRP is not a model it is always a straight line as if the storms current motion and speed remained for 120 hours.

[weatherSnoop]

you all did look at the other hwrf right ... lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noa ... =Animation

The one that rakes the Bahamas, skirts south Florida and bends back west into Brevard county, that one?

[KWT]

XTRP is not a model it is always a straight line as if the storms current motion and speed remained for 120 hours.

I know that...but its still useful sometimes to use as a very short term guide, esp as it seems in thise case that the eastern models are moving too much north whilst the western models have a good grip on the current motion.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well the criteria for a warning is 24 hours or less from landfall, and this is nearly 2 days from landfall. Therefore at this point, a watch is more appropriate.

Actually the criteria for a warning is now 36 hours. Watches are now 48 hours.

Not to be persnickety, but a true landfall isn't required. The area need only be at risk of experiencing a part of the wind field.

Lol alright well you know what I meant. Either way this thing is still closer to 48 hours than 36 hours from landfall. Therefore the watch still is more appropriate atm, at least for the next 12 hours, though it may be re-upgraded whenever they feel its necessary.

[underthwx]

THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 12 TO 24
HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTERLY INITIAL MOTION AND LIES
CLOSE TO THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BEYOND THAT TIME. GIVEN THE
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THIS IS A GOOD TIME TO
REMIND EVERYONE THAT THE AVERAGE ERROR OF THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS ABOUT 250 MILES AT 5 DAYS.


From the N.H.C. 7:30P.M.

[bamajammer4eva]

00z Tropical Models
http://img807.imageshack.us/img807/6930/storm05.gif

The Bam models look odd with such a sharp recurve and almost look like they would continue to circle around in a cyclonic loop East then southeast then south then southewest if the time extended further out?

[wzrgirl1]

Long four or five days coming up. Plenty of time to watch her. Good luck to everyone in the path.

[knotimpaired]

So unless my eyes deceive me, the worst case scenario for PR is Cabo Rojo.

Do you agree or do you think other areas in PR should be concerned?

[Cainer]

I would disregard that HWRF run. It initializes Emily way too far east, and has it move NW almost immediately. Seeing as it still seems to me moving west right now, not much chance it skirts Hispaniola like that. Still, a sobering scenario nonetheless, and something to keep an eye on for sure.

[thetraveler]

Historical tracks of all cyclones within 2 degrees of Emily.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201105_climo.html

Thats pretty eye-opening, very few systems recurved before Florida and most went well west.

Food for thought...

Yeah, more hit Texas than Florida in that graphic.

[Aric Dunn]

this is by far the best historical tracks site..

http://maps.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/#

[cycloneye]

So unless my eyes deceive me, the worst case scenario for PR is Cabo Rojo.

Do you agree or do you think other areas in PR should be concerned?

All of PR will see bands of rain and windy conditions with them but the SW corner may get the strongest winds,unless Emily changes course and slams us like Hortense did in 1996 when she changed course.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, Florida might be a real close call. I wonder if the next forecast will shift the track east of Florida based upon a couple of
the recent models shifting? Regardless, it sure looks like a close call right now anyway.


edit: Okay, I have to laugh at something. I looked at my post above and it said, "next forecast will poop the track"....I KNOW I didn't type that. Anyway, I went to edit the post and it turns out that I accidently left off the 'F' when I typed "shift", so S2K substituted the more appropriate word.

[northtxboy]

[Cainer]

The CLP5 track would probably be the worst-case scenario; skirts all the islands except for the tip of Cuba and continues into the Gulf, similar to Gustav. Obviously not that concerning as it's the only model showing it right now, but if the models continue to shift west it's something to keep an eye on.

[Aric Dunn]

all tracks within 20 miles of present location... florida florida florida.. lol

[Evil Jeremy]

Overall, the models shifted east tonight with many showing a recurve for the first time in a while. The start of a trend? I think the 00z models are going to be very important, as they will have recon data and will initialize as a Tropical Storm. Either way, I think the NHC will shift their cone east, but only a little. They will wait for a clear trend before making big cone changes.

[OverlandHurricane]

you all did look at the other hwrf right ... lol

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrf-noa ... =Animation

That run of the HWRF has a 940 mb cane aiming straight at Cape Canaveral.