ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3841 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:29 pm

Blown Away wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
PTrackerLA wrote:NHC's path looks too far west given current model suite. They will definitely have to adjust their track some at 10pm.


I agree only the CMC and UKMET are into Florida. I am not counting the NOGAPS.

The other reliable models are converging over the Bahamas. A right shift should be coming.

Those BAMs are really recurving it now. Though not really counting those.


IMO, some models begin the recurve, slow significantly, and some stall, Emily gets trapped under a building ridge and forced back W (TVCN, BAMD, NOGAPS). Maybe a Jeanne type setup??


yeah mentioned that earlier.. its possible..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3842 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:30 pm

the EURO a few days ago suggested a carib crusier....interesting NAM look and some stout ridging....I have to agree with Ivan....Emily 05 was the same type issue. Models playing catch up the entire time....I wouldnt hang my hat on any one solution at this time...too many variables...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3843 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:30 pm

more wsw motion for the NAm... ridiging building back quick and strong..

00z
Image

18z
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#3844 Postby Gustywind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:31 pm

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#3845 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:31 pm

I dont think its getting out of the carribean this run..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3846 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:31 pm

and someone tell me why we are looking at the BAMS again track wise? :lol:
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#3847 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:32 pm

is it me or Emily is weakening a bit? Convection doesnt seem as deep as it was near the center... :roll:
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Re:

#3848 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I dont think its getting out of the carribean this run..




nope
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Re:

#3849 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:I dont think its getting out of the carribean this run..

its also a lot weaker...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3850 Postby Canelaw99 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:32 pm

Hm. Well. It seems we're in for a quite a week LOL Thanks for all the input, theories, observations, and forecasts y'all. Everyone in the States try and get some rest early this week as it's gonna get rough later on. Those folks in the islands, please stay safe!!!
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Re:

#3851 Postby Florida1118 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:33 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:is it me or Emily is weakening a bit? Convection doesnt seem as deep as it was near the center... :roll:

Tis D-min. Wait until D-max...itll blow up. Overall it looks better organized to me
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Re: Re:

#3852 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:33 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:I dont think its getting out of the carribean this run..

its also a lot weaker...


not at 66hrs.. quite strong... but weakness is gone.. its stuck..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3853 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:34 pm

LOL...looks like it will go south of Jamaica this run! :lol:

Image

Image
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Re:

#3854 Postby knotimpaired » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:34 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:Looking forward to the new Discussion. I wonder how the NHC will handle the new model run.


They will downplay their lack of recognizing 91L as what it was/is.

They will accept their deficiet.

Each government will do their best to secure the safety of their residents.

All of us will stand forward and help all of those in need.

You may pm me to assit in this help.

K
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#3855 Postby SunnyThoughts » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:35 pm

May just keep scootin west and hit the Yucatan this run, wouldn't surprise me. One of the few things we haven't seen yet lol
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3856 Postby LSU2001 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:35 pm

If you look on the east side of the convective blob you can see some blossoming very cold cloud tops. This could well signal a new pulse of convection is coming.
Tim
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Last edited by LSU2001 on Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:37 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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#3857 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:36 pm

How large do you guys think this system will stay during the next 24 hours?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3858 Postby JPmia » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:37 pm

hey where's MWatkins?? his opinion is always well regarded in these parts.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Advisories

#3859 Postby cycloneye » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES BY TUESDAY...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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#3860 Postby Evil Jeremy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:39 pm

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY...

New cone is more north but not more east. More of Florida in the cone now.

Image
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Mon Aug 01, 2011 9:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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