ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[stormhunter7]

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


Moving west pretty quickly!

[cycloneye]

[indian]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

[knotimpaired]

New cone is more north but not more east. More of Florida in the cone now.

So if it is north then PR is a player?

[Florida1118]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Not really...No

[Evil Jeremy]

New cone is more north but not more east. More of Florida in the cone now.

So if it is north then PR is a player?

More north in 4-5 days, not really 1-3.

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Incredibly unlikely with the Cockroach Ridge of Death.

[cycloneye]

New cone is more north but not more east. More of Florida in the cone now.

So if it is north then PR is a player?

The track went a little bit away from PR.

[Aric Dunn]

moving west at 17... geez..

[lonelymike]

and someone tell me why we are looking at the BAMS again track wise?

and someone tell me why we are looking at the Nam?

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 020237
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 62.9W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.9 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES BY TUESDAY...AND IN
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS BY EARLY TUESDAY...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Canelaw99]

As of now, looking more likely some part of FL will get something out of this storm, though it seems it will be fairly weak by the time it approaches us. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow once new models come out with the storm actually being a storm, and lots more data. Night all!

[cycloneye]

Please,advisories are posted on the Advisories thread and not here,thank you.

[jaxfladude]

...EMILY CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
GRADUALLY...

New cone is more north but not more east. More of Florida in the cone now.

Yikes!
Hope for the best for all in Emily's path

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

EMILY STILL HAS A RATHER DISHEVELED APPEARANCE IN GEOSTATIONARY
IMAGERY...AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED A BIT OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS AND LACK MUCH IN THE WAY OF CURVATURE. BASED ON THE LACK OF
IMPROVEMENT IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB. THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE ONLY
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS SEEN BY THE COPIOUS
DRY AIR IN THE 00Z SAN JUAN RADIOSONDE AND SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ONLY MODEST
STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND IN FACT THE LATEST GFDL
MODEL RUN EVEN DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE IVCN INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGH
36 HOURS...AND THEN SHOWS WEAKENING AT 48 AND 72 HOURS AS EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH HISPANIOLA. ASSUMING THAT EMILY RECOVERS
FROM INTERACTION WITH THE ISLAND...GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM.

THE CENTER HAS BEEN A BIT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE SINCE THE AIRCRAFT
DEPARTED...SO THE INITIAL POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION OF 275/15 ARE
QUITE UNCERTAIN AND BASED LARGELY ON CONTINUITY. OVERALL THE
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN...AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY ERODE THE RIDGE NORTH OF EMILY OVER THE
NEXT 2 OR 3 DAYS. THIS WILL ALLOW EMILY TO TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN DURING THIS TIME PERIOD.
LATE IN THE PERIOD... THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND
SOME RIDGING RE-BUILDING NORTH OF EMILY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE APPEAR TO MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST
GFS RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE AND A MUCH DEEPER
REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT MOVES MORE NORTHWARD. THE HWRF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT
MOVES MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH A STRONGER RIDGE.
GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.5N 62.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 15.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 16.8N 67.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 17.8N 69.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.9N 71.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 22.0N 75.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 06/0000Z 25.0N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 27.5N 80.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[Tertius]

hey where's MWatkins?? his opinion is always well regarded in these parts.

IIRC he got a new job that was going to keep him pretty busy and unable to post here much. Can't really recall the details, sorry about that. He seemed happy about it though so good for him. Like you I do miss his analysis though.

[Evil Jeremy]

LATE IN THE PERIOD... THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH LIFTING OUT AND
SOME RIDGING RE-BUILDING NORTH OF EMILY. HOWEVER...BOTH THE
DETAILS OF THE RIDGE AND THE DEPTH OF THE CYCLONE APPEAR TO MAKE
ALL THE DIFFERENCE IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK. FOR EXAMPLE...THE LATEST
GFS RUN HAS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE AND A MUCH DEEPER
REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT MOVES MORE NORTHWARD. THE HWRF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO FOLLOW THIS GENERAL SCENARIO. ON THE OTHER
HAND...THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH WEAKER REPRESENTATION OF EMILY THAT
MOVES MORE WESTWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD UNDERNEATH A STRONGER RIDGE.
GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE TRACK FORECAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE NEW NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THROUGH 72
HOURS...AND HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT TOWARD THE TVCA
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5

[Blown Away]

Hurricane landfalls from the east between Vero Beach and Savannah are very rare, so I think we will continue to see Emily curve away from Florida or landfall somewhere S of Vero Beach. IMO, Emily is at 62.9W and booking W, so I think it's agressive to recurve Emily E of Florida at this point. I think this may be a SFL storm, as a strong TS not hurricane IMO!!

[fci]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Really???
We have a storm that the NHC says is headed to Fla or east of it and someone actually asks about the Western Gulf?
Unbelievable.

(no additional comment for fear of suspension....)

[Aric Dunn]

and someone tell me why we are looking at the BAMS again track wise?

and someone tell me why we are looking at the Nam?

becasue its actually quite decent with large scale synoptics... hence the ridging..

[lonelymike]

hey where's MWatkins?? his opinion is always well regarded in these parts.

Check out the tropical analysis thread