ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

As of now, looking more likely some part of FL will get something out of this storm, though it seems it will be fairly weak by the time it approaches us. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow once new models come out with the storm actually being a storm, and lots more data. Night all!

NHC still saying Hurricane near Florida. Not exactly "fairly weak".

[indian]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Really???
We have a storm that the NHC says is headed to Fla or east of it and someone actually asks about the Western Gulf?
Unbelievable.

(no additional comment for fear of suspension....)

do you remember the NHC track on IKE also????

[Florida1118]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Really???
We have a storm that the NHC says is headed to Fla or east of it and someone actually asks about the Western Gulf?
Unbelievable.

(no additional comment for fear of suspension....)

their new, but I do agree with ya...

[Recurve]

I wouldn't be so rough on the NHC. Their 5-day errors shrink every year, but even a few years back they were pretty good. Check out Hurricane Dean, where their 5-day errors were only a few miles from conception to demise. And when the cone is narrow like this, that means they have good confidence. I'd say 90+% chance that some part of Florida gets impact from this.

Just to be clear, the width of the cone is 2/3 of the historical error over the last 5 years at each foreacast point. NHC Director Bill Read talked about what the cone would be for this year at the start of the season in a conference at UM, and I asked NHC staff about the changes for this year to be clear for an article afterward. The NHC does not change the cone for each storm or forecast.

Here is the NHC definition of the cone:

To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles.

Also important to remember that the cone has nothing to do with the size of the storm or the extent of winds. Damaging winds and surge can affect areas outside the cone.

[ROCK]

and someone tell me why we are looking at the BAMS again track wise?

and someone tell me why we are looking at the Nam?

you do have a point....

[Canelaw99]

As of now, looking more likely some part of FL will get something out of this storm, though it seems it will be fairly weak by the time it approaches us. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow once new models come out with the storm actually being a storm, and lots more data. Night all!

NHC still saying Hurricane near Florida. Not exactly "fairly weak".

Eh...granted. However, the 11 pm track shows a trop storm off my part of the state, so that's not exactly strong IMO. We all know intensity is tough for them to predict, and anything can happen in the tropics, so always best to be prepared....

[Aric Dunn]

So jusst waiting to see how fast the ridge weakens... that is the determining factor everything after that is really speculative...

[bevgo]

Some on the board are not as knowledgeable as others. They see a storm and crazy models and just are seeking information. Fear is part of it. i would be nice if others would be mre patient. A nice answe of no that is not likely would have been so much nicer. Give us dummies a break please. We are scared, aprehensive, concerned, excited and just seeking information. Thanks in advance for having more patience.

[bamajammer4eva]

They cant make up their mind lol

What a difference 3 hrs makes.

TROPICAL STORM EMILY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
745 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

AT 745 PM AST...2345 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
TO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

Then

TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
1100 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

[Bocadude85]

I am having a hard time finding the center.. anyone care to point it out?

[fci]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Really???
We have a storm that the NHC says is headed to Fla or east of it and someone actually asks about the Western Gulf?
Unbelievable.

(no additional comment for fear of suspension....)

do you remember the NHC track on IKE also????

Ike was moving towards South Florida from the East, North of Puerto Rico and the stronger than expected ridge kicked it SW and it actually crossed over into the NW Carib from the NE; a probably once in out lifetime event.
Given your rationale I should ask if every storm approaching SC/NC is a South Florida threat since Betsy did a turnaround almost 40 years ago!
Sorry, a not credible comparison of apples to peaches!
I'm sorry but the question was beyond laughable at this point.

[ROCK]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Really???
We have a storm that the NHC says is headed to Fla or east of it and someone actually asks about the Western Gulf?
Unbelievable.

(no additional comment for fear of suspension....)

What's unbelievable? did you see some of the globals take a sniff at the EGOM today? Whats unbelievable is some think this track is a done deal and the model consenus is set in stone....

[HurricaneBrain]

is it possible emily makes it to the western gulf?

Really???
We have a storm that the NHC says is headed to Fla or east of it and someone actually asks about the Western Gulf?
Unbelievable.

(no additional comment for fear of suspension....)

Fci, never say never in the tropics. Here in some parts of the Western Gulf, everyone remembers the impacts of Hurricane Ike... Remember when his track was up in to Florida during it's early hurricane stages? Definitely not saying it's going to happen with Emily, just giving and example. http://www.thedailygreen.com/cm/thedailygreen/images/g2/hurricane-ike-map-0905-lg.jpg

[Recurve]

Good news also that unless the track winds up far to the left of the cone, south Florida would have offshore winds, not a surge disaster.

If the intensity were forecast to be much higher, it would be one of those evacuation nightmares with most of the coast under the gun and too many people trying to get out of the away.

[HurricaneBrain]

Ahhh, Indian I was typing my Ike post as you sent it. Didn't see it, sorry. Great minds think alike.

[Nikki]

Some on the board are not as knowledgeable as others. They see a storm and crazy models and just are seeking information. Fear is part of it. i would be nice if others would be mre patient. A nice answe of no that is not likely would have been so much nicer. Give us dummies a break please. We are scared, aprehensive, concerned, excited and just seeking information. Thanks in advance for having more patience.

Well said Bevgo, well said!!!!!! Kuddos to you!!!!

[Ivanhater]

What is ridiculous is the lack of respect I am seeing in here. Keep that crap out of the discussion and continue discussing Emily with respect toward each other.

[Aric Dunn]

the cone of error from the NHC is also in the gulf....

[ROCK]

do you remember the NHC track on IKE also???? [/quote]

Ike was moving towards South Florida from the East, North of Puerto Rico and the stronger than expected ridge kicked it SW and it actually crossed over into the NW Carib from the NE; a probably once in out lifetime event.
Given your rationale I should ask if every storm approaching SC/NC is a South Florida threat since Betsy did a turnaround almost 40 years ago!
Sorry, a not credible comparison of apples to peaches!
I'm sorry but the question was beyond laughable at this point.[/quote]

the OP referenced Ike due to the models never had a handle on it....Actually it was supposed to dive SW then curve up the spine of FL...never did that. That was the comparison not the synopic set-up we are currently in...That said, no question poised by a new member here is laughable.

[Annie Oakley]

Please,advisories are posted on the Advisories thread and not here,thank you.

No Offense Cycloneye...I am one of your biggest fans...but personally I think this thread is the most popular amongst the general populace and if someone posts an advisory/warning etc. I feel it is helpful. I think it is difficult to move from thread to thread if one is not familiar with this site. And I see a lot of visitors.

If I am wrong then I stand corrected.........please take this as not a bad criticism.