ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Evil Jeremy]

00z eastward trends continue. Florida in time will out if the cone if this keeps up.

Image doesnt come out

well.. its says 00z... but not all have updated... most are still 18z.. the rest wont be done till about 1am

1am? GFDL/HWRF/EURO run after 1.

[ROCK]

are you sure those are not the early run cycles from his page?

[LaBreeze]

If ms Emily does manage to get in the gulf she better not dilly dally. I am flying home to the ms gulf coast next week(Thursday). I know models arent forecasting anywhere near there but things seem to be changing and models not sure about high strength(are they ever?)...still think it would clear the area by day 10 unless it slows to a crawl or stalls . I expect it to be somewhere in the vicinity of of Cuba/SFL come Saturday evening. If it missed Florida would probably be a 72 hour trip from Cuba to the northern gulf coast... Hence it would still be 48 hrs prior to my arrival....hopefully she turns out to be a non-event.

I'm with you, PTPatrick - hoping she's a non-event.

[ROCK]

Image doesnt come out[/quote]

well.. its says 00z... but not all have updated... most are still 18z.. the rest wont be done till about 1am[/quote]

1am? GFDL/HWRF/EURO run after 1.[/quote]

the 00z models above run at around 1am.....no other model guidance except the NAM is out that I can see...

[Recurve]

Since there was a question about the IR image:

In the animations you can turn on the temperature scale. It's the last of the checkbox options.

The numbers in yellow above the colored band show the temperatures associated with the colorization of the image. Very cold cloud tops indicate thunderstorms reaching higher into the atmosphere, a sign of greater intensity.



So that dark gray is showing minus 80 degrees C. Brrrrrrrr. Very high tops.

Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[Annie Oakley]

For those who didn't know, I do believe recon is set to depart in about 1 hour to travel to the system and check it out again. Just a heads up so if you have anything you need to do beforehand, get it done so you can watch with the rest of us! (I know its late, but you can dooooo it).

Sunny what would be the recon thread url

Thanks in advance.......

[psyclone]

small changes in the the latter portion of the track could have big implications for florida. if the storm swings 100 miles east there would be little impact to the state. a bit west and we could run up the spine of the state. a little west of there and you could have a west coast scraper from the keys to the capital. those are vastly different scenarios without a great deal of deviation from the current official forecast. that said, to me it makes sense to let the storm tackled the greater antilles first. at that point we should have a much better idea of where this is headed. something tells me we could have alot of late nights the next 3 months. time to brew some coffee.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, just a bit more east and Florida might be in the clear... That's what you call skimming the coast. According to the model threads, some of them are starting to trend east again. We'll see if Florida will be out of the center of the cone come morning.

[Nikki]

Alright... Like Ivanhater said, we need to get back on topic! Emily is showing some grey on infrared:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/avn-l.jpg

I am a weather enthusiast but dumb dumb dumb when it comes to weather and tropics...what does the grey show/mean?

That's quite alright! Everyone has to learn somewhere. If you notice at the bottom of the map, you can see a color scale. The farther right the color is, the colder the cloud tops are. So if you're looking at the infrared map and you see grey, there are some very cold cloud tops (which shows the system has some deep, organizing convection). It's kind of like reading a doppler radar and you see dark red coming to your area.

Thank you for such an awesome response!!! That is easy to read and follow!!

[ROCK]

on that scale grey indicates extemely cold cloud tops... an indication of vigorous convection.

yep and also that she is tapped in now to the surface...and she has some fuel to burn...


http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[Aric Dunn]

GFS will be starting in the next 5 min or so ..

[Dave]

For those who didn't know, I do believe recon is set to depart in about 1 hour to travel to the system and check it out again. Just a heads up so if you have anything you need to do beforehand, get it done so you can watch with the rest of us! (I know its late, but you can dooooo it).

Sunny what would be the recon thread url

Thanks in advance.......

Annie we will be over here...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111297&start=200

[ROCK]

that LLC tucked back under the convection to the SW...center relocation are always a good bet in the early stages of any TC...I think we just saw one....track implications? you betcha....

[HurricaneWarning92]

Is it possible this could undergo RI? because it still has almost 2 days left to be in the water before interacting with land (if that)... just wondering.

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is running now.. initialized with no emily.. at the 500mb level anyway

[HurricaneBrain]

I am a weather enthusiast but dumb dumb dumb when it comes to weather and tropics...what does the grey show/mean?

That's quite alright! Everyone has to learn somewhere. If you notice at the bottom of the map, you can see a color scale. The farther right the color is, the colder the cloud tops are. So if you're looking at the infrared map and you see grey, there are some very cold cloud tops (which shows the system has some deep, organizing convection). It's kind of like reading a doppler radar and you see dark red coming to your area.

Thank you for such an awesome response!!! That is easy to read and follow!!

Not a problem! If you have any more questions just ask, I'm always online.

[blp]

Right now the NHC track is looking a lot like 1979 Hurricane David.

[ROCK]

GFS will be starting in the next 5 min or so ..

oh this should be good.....

[ROCK]

GFS is running now.. initialized with no emily..

told you.....crap run.....garbage in the initilizing means garbage out....

[pgoss11]

Right now the NHC track is looking a lot like 1979 Hurricane David.

I woud think a sharper recurve than David