ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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cheezyWXguy
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Re:

#3941 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:42 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Is it possible this could undergo RI? because it still has almost 2 days left to be in the water before interacting with land (if that)... just wondering.

Not likely at this point. The storm is still disorganized with the deepest convection far east of the circulation center. If this thing can get its act together tonight, it wouldnt surprise me if Emily made a run at minimal hurricane status before DR, but that is definitely the upper extreme of the intensity possibilities. On the other hand, when it emerges back into the ocean, in a few days near the bahamas, I remember reading earlier that conditions may be pretty favorable in that area and time but thats a few days out so its still a wait and see situation.
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#3942 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:42 pm

So far 18hrs emily still running west.. SW of 18z postion by about 100 miles

ridging holding..

00z
Image

18z

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3943 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:43 pm

Image

What a great comparison time, intensity, and track! Hope it doesn't repeat for selfish reasons! :D
Last edited by Blown Away on Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3944 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:43 pm

the 12Z should have had all the data from RECON in it....? must be having issues
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Re:

#3945 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:43 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:Is it possible this could undergo RI? because it still has almost 2 days left to be in the water before interacting with land (if that)... just wondering.

It's a possibility, but I would think chances would be greater once it passes the islands. If Emily takes the NHC path right down the middle, it will be sitting over high water temperatures on the Eastern Florida coast. That's where I think things can ramp up.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3946 Postby Recurve » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:44 pm

As to the question about possible rapid intensification, you can see from the forecast discussion they are really not expecting that....but intensity is the most difficult part of any forecast.

Discussion here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/020243.shtml
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3947 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:44 pm

24 hours...not even a low on the map..
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Re: Re:

#3948 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:44 pm

ROCK wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:GFS is running now.. initialized with no emily..



told you.....crap run.....garbage in the initilizing means garbage out.... :lol: :lol:



i edited that.. it was just in the 500mb level... initialized correctly in low levels.. everythings is good..

also the ridge is stronger than 18z reflecting the current strength of it better..
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Re: Re:

#3949 Postby Annie Oakley » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:45 pm

Dave wrote:
Annie Oakley wrote:
SunnyThoughts wrote:For those who didn't know, I do believe recon is set to depart in about 1 hour to travel to the system and check it out again. Just a heads up so if you have anything you need to do beforehand, get it done so you can watch with the rest of us! (I know its late, but you can dooooo it).


Sunny what would be the recon thread url

Thanks in advance.......


Annie we will be over here...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=111297&start=200


Thanks! I thought so but I just didn't know if a new thread would be started. And for you and others who cover the HDOBS thanks a million.
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#3950 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:45 pm

Okay, thanks guys. 8-)
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3951 Postby SFLcane » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:45 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3952 Postby blp » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:45 pm

Blown Away wrote:What a great comparison, time, intensity, and track! Hope it doesn't repeat for selfish reasons! :D



Interesting, nice find. I also thought David was similar...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3953 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:46 pm

Image
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#3954 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:46 pm

I see a low in both the 500 and 850 at 27 hours.. still everything is fine..
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#3955 Postby HurricaneBrain » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:46 pm

David seems to be the most fitting comparison, disregarding the intensity.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3956 Postby Blown Away » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:47 pm

blp wrote:
Blown Away wrote:What a great comparison, time, intensity, and track! Hope it doesn't repeat for selfish reasons! :D



Interesting, nice find. I also thought David was similar...

David track was close but he was a Cat 5 going into DR whereas 1926 was a minimal storm going into DR like Emily will be.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3957 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:48 pm

Ivanhater wrote:24 hours...not even a low on the map..


its a wave.... :lol: :lol:


Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3958 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:49 pm

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_024l.gif


its still there....
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#3959 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:50 pm

If its racing westwards, shouldnt models be trending more towards the left instead of right? i believe it shows it should be moving wnw from the initial position but its still moving westwards. just an observation.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3960 Postby CourierPR » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:50 pm

The projected track brings to mind another storm. Cleo, in 1964, crossed southeastern Cuba and impacted Florida on the east side from south to north.
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