ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3961 Postby Ivanhater » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:51 pm

Extremely weak so far on this run
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#3962 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:52 pm

Yeah rock it appears to be down under 15 north right now ... right where the convection is firing west of Saint lucia
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#3963 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:52 pm

not so much a 36 hours.. very little at 500mb level
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#3964 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:52 pm

HurricaneWarning92 wrote:If its racing westwards, shouldnt models be trending more towards the left instead of right? i believe it shows it should be moving wnw from the initial position but its still moving westwards. just an observation.


I didnt see the trend switch to right today....must have missed it...
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3965 Postby PTPatrick » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:53 pm

Mobile wfo mentions that the ridge of death would back up toward new mexico by this weekend. So there should def be a path north somewhere between Bahamas and louisiana (between the highs) ...Will all depend on if Atlantic ridge builds south west.


Edit: and note at 36 gfs looses it, possibly calling for carribean shear??
Last edited by PTPatrick on Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:54 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3966 Postby TwisterFanatic » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:53 pm

Well, uh, this has been a very helpful GFS model run so far. :roll: :lol:
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3967 Postby Macrocane » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:53 pm

:eek: What is the reason for the bad inicialization, didn't they use the data from recon? Ironically GFS kept developing it for several days and now that Emily does exist it completly ignores her.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3968 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:54 pm

Macrocane wrote::eek: What is the reason for the bad inicialization, didn't they use the data from recon? Ironically GFS kept developing it for several days and now that Emily does exist it completly ignores her.


it was not bad...
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#3969 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:55 pm

hmmm stuck near PR at 42 hours..
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Models

#3970 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:56 pm

PTPatrick wrote:Mobile wfo mentions that the ridge of death would back up toward new mexico by this weekend. So there should def be a path north somewhere between Bahamas and louisiana (between the highs) ...Will all depend on if Atlantic ridge builds south west.


Edit: and note at 36 gfs looses it, possibly calling for carribean shear??


ridge sitting over TX/AR/LA borders....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif


SHIPS called for manageable shear or I thought I saw that earlier....
Last edited by ROCK on Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#3971 Postby HurricaneWarning92 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:56 pm

wow looks to me its getting better by the hour.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3972 Postby blp » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:56 pm

It seems to me like the LLC is outracing the convection again. It could be my tired eyes playing tricks, but if that is the case progress will continue to be slow. I am seeing it approaching 15 & 65.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1
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#3973 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:56 pm

The gfs had many cat 5 hurricanes as nothing but open waves running through carribean... its funny like that..
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Re:

#3974 Postby ROCK » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The gfs had many cat 5 hurricanes as nothing but open waves running through carribean... its funny like that..



Felix comes to mind and or Dean.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3975 Postby stormhunter7 » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:58 pm

Image

Shes pretty much has two feeder bands that were exploding as they came close to the islands... this created some HOT towers that are WAY up there and looking at http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ir2.html you can almost pinpoint where the center of circulation is... its hard to clearly see... but appears is still moving its course.. if recon goes tonight, i dont think will see much change in sturcture until we get a nice CDO building on the center... which looking at tonight will take some time in my opinion. The long range forecast is very complicated and the Islands like we have seen before can distrupt a system very quickly.. its all going to depend where the low will cross the islands and how much recovery the low will build... but having seen storms go the same general direction throught is northern islands, i expect the warm shallower waters will bring the system right back, and i do think we will have a system that could affect SE Florida by weeks end. How strong and where right now is a pure guess do to the complex setup up down the road. I am watching the EURO more than any other models for the next few days, since its been the better of all to handle the atlantic ridge in the past few years the best.
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Re:

#3976 Postby srainhoutx » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:58 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:The gfs had many cat 5 hurricanes as nothing but open waves running through carribean... its funny like that..

Actually the Euro and GFS are rather close for TC genesis. I wouldn't discount either guidance... :wink:
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3977 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:58 pm

blp wrote:It seems to me like the LLC is outracing the convection again. It could be my tired eyes playing tricks, but if that is the case progress will continue to be slow. I am seeing it approaching 15 & 65.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1


satellite not useful right now..

use radar
http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108
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#3978 Postby SeminoleWind » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:58 pm

48 HRS, were did she go?

Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#3979 Postby blp » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:59 pm

Blown Away wrote:
blp wrote:
Blown Away wrote:What a great comparison, time, intensity, and track! Hope it doesn't repeat for selfish reasons! :D



Interesting, nice find. I also thought David was similar...

David track was close but he was a Cat 5 going into DR whereas 1926 was a minimal storm going into DR like Emily will be.



Yea I was referring to the track not the intensity, but 1926 would be bad deal with an intensifying storm reaching Florida.
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#3980 Postby Hylian Auree » Mon Aug 01, 2011 10:59 pm

Even as a tropical cyclone, it seems our Emily remains an omni-vortice beast
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