ATL: EMILY- Personal Forecasts

[lebron23]

My own personal forecast for this system will be up around 2-4pm CDT. Feel free to make your own forecasts

[cycloneye]

Yes,anyone who wants to post a personal forecast can do so here.Remember to post the storm2k disclaimer.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Florida1118]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Im going to go with it forms tomorrow att 5pm EDT, moves WNW and clips the N islands and PR, continues WNW or NW until it begins to recurve in the E Bahamas. Still as a hurricane, the trough pulls Emily into SC and bring much needed rain and heat relief, but at the cost of broken power lines and downed trees. i think Emily makes Landfall in SC as a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 105mph.

[cycloneye]

Any more forecasts that the members want to make?

[SETXPTNeches]

My first attempt at a personal forecast as a newbie..

I say the system is moving way to fast to be lifted up and recurve. I think it will stay weak and track further west and over PR as a weak TS then over Hispanola where it lose verocity, yet re-emerges as a low and will track further WNW.
(How did I do?)

One more reminder: The wave train has begun!

[cycloneye]

Do any more members want to venture in a forecast for 91L?

[lebron23]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Florida straits. cat 1. IMO.

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think that looking at the current low shear ahead that this will become Emily by tomorrow evening, moves wnw into the northern lesser antilles then into the caribbean, then will make landfall in Puerto Rico as a 100mph hurricane moving wnw coming within 50 miles of Miami as a 125mph hurricane moving nne making landfall in Wilmington NC as a 105 mph hurricane turning more ne away from the NE US similar to Hurricane David 1979 but about 75 miles farther east

0 30mph
12 35mph
24 45mph
36 55mph
48 70mph going through the northern lesser antilles
60 85mph
72 100mph making landfall in Puerto Rico
84 100mph
96 115mph
108 120mph
120 125mph 35 Miles east of Miami
132 125mph stalled 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral
144 120mph starts moving nne
156 115mph 150 miles east of Savannah
168 110mph Starts accelerating towards the Carolina coast
180 100mph Makes landfall in Wilmington North Carolina changing to a ne direction
192 80mph moving towards colder water
204 50mph begins extratropical transition
216 55mph last advisory will be given

[lebron23]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Florida straits. cat 1. IMO.

[underthwx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



My personal forecast brings the system into the GOM as a strong T.S./minimal Cat.1...with a curve into the Northern Central Gulf states.

[Hurricaneman]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think that looking at the current low shear ahead that this will become Emily by tomorrow evening, moves wnw into the northern lesser antilles then into the caribbean, then will make landfall in Puerto Rico as a 100mph hurricane moving wnw coming within 50 miles of Miami as a 125mph hurricane moving nne making landfall in Wilmington NC as a 105 mph hurricane turning more ne away from the NE US similar to Hurricane David 1979 but about 75 miles farther east

0 30mph
12 35mph
24 45mph
36 55mph
48 70mph going through the northern lesser antilles
60 85mph
72 100mph making landfall in Puerto Rico
84 100mph
96 115mph
108 120mph
120 125mph 35 Miles east of Miami
132 125mph stalled 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral
144 120mph starts moving nne
156 115mph 150 miles east of Savannah
168 110mph Starts accelerating towards the Carolina coast
180 100mph Makes landfall in Wilmington North Carolina changing to a ne direction
192 80mph moving towards colder water
204 50mph begins extratropical transition
216 55mph last advisory will be given

Looks like I did pretty poorly on intensity, I hope I at least get the track right

[KWT]

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My own punt would be:

60-70kts landfall E.Hispaniola, exits as a 35kts system, slowly reorganises then rapidly strengthens in a very condusive set-up to say 90kts by the Bahamas...may have a shot at MH before it exits stage right...

Also I'd give it a 40% chance of making landfall to Florida...so significant risk this far out IMO/

[lebron23]

40mph-135mph
Landfall: Corpus Christi, Texas to Nova Scotia

Confidence: 99.8 percent

[TwisterFanatic]

40mph-135mph
Landfall: Corpus Christi, Texas to Nova Scotia

Confidence: 99.8 percent

I'm gonna go out on a limb, and say you MAYBE correct.

[JonathanBelles]

Here is my first forecast for the Emily:


http://wp.me/p1xnuB-3Z

Code: Select all

[size=85]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/size]

Also, I do want to say everyone that is reading this that if you have any interest in studying tropical meteorology, the single best way to learn is to write forecasts and mess up forecasts. I started 4 or 5 years ago with forecasts, that at the time were a mere joke to what I can do now, but doing is the best way of learning in my opinion. Give it a shot!

[lebron23]

Here is my first forecast for the Emily:


http://wp.me/p1xnuB-3Z

Code: Select all

[size=85]The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.[/size]

Also, I do want to say everyone that is reading this that if you have any interest in studying tropical meteorology, the single best way to learn is to write forecasts and mess up forecasts. I started 4 or 5 years ago with forecasts, that at the time were a mere joke to what I can do now, but doing is the best way of learning in my opinion. Give it a shot!

Wide cone

[JonathanBelles]

My latest forecast:



Discussion: http://wp.me/p1xnuB-4m

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Tireman4]

40mph-135mph
Landfall: Corpus Christi, Texas to Nova Scotia

Confidence: 99.8 percent

I'm gonna go out on a limb, and say you MAYBE correct.

Now that is ONE accurate forecast. I am sure you will do well in meteorology school....