ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[Hurricaneman]

looks like Emily is south of Jamaica if I'm looking at the right area

[ROCK]

at 66hrs the exit door up the EC is shut for now....

high dropped down into the LA area near the coast...

[ROCK]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_85v_066l.gif

looks like Emily is south of Jamaica if I'm looking at the right area

whats left of her....

[ConvergenceZone]

Well ya never know. We could wake up tomorrow and find only a depression and say, "what the heck happened to Emily?"
How many times have we seen that before? Remember Don? We were pretty sure that was going to get going, as it had plenty of time, but nothing...... Sometimes storms don't do what you think they will.


Just saying, ya never know what tomorrow morning will bring.

[Aric Dunn]

seems its in the SE bahamas.. but hard to say..

[Aric Dunn]

yeah 81 hours seem to be in central bahamas now.. ridging building north of it now..

[HurricaneWarning92]

If its racing westwards, shouldnt models be trending more towards the left instead of right? i believe it shows it should be moving wnw from the initial position but its still moving westwards. just an observation.

I didnt see the trend switch to right today....must have missed it...

Just a bit right. The NHC model was a tad to the left in the previous forecast track. But seems like the center is still racing towards the west and it seems like its now below 15 w. so i just wondered whether there could be another shift back to the west.

[ROCK]

this is a jacked up run....looks like it splits under DR and one piece goes by Jam and the other out into the Bahamas...

[Aric Dunn]

93 hours.. still central bahamas wnw motion

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/GemPakTier/Mag ... _200wd.gif

[SFLcane]

No development per the 00z GFS thus far...Decapitated north of DR.

[ROCK]

If its racing westwards, shouldnt models be trending more towards the left instead of right? i believe it shows it should be moving wnw from the initial position but its still moving westwards. just an observation.

I didnt see the trend switch to right today....must have missed it...

Just a bit right. The NHC model was a tad to the left in the previous forecast track. But seems like the center is still racing towards the west and it seems like its now below 15 w. so i just wondered whether there could be another shift back to the west.

there will be with the center relocation to the SW...

[SouthDadeFish]

What's up with the models wanting to kill everything this year? Euro has been hesitant on this storm the whole time as well... Hmmm...

[Aric Dunn]

by 105 hours.. really starts losing it..

[Sean in New Orleans]

Well, we're getting to that time of year....hope Emily keeps weak and doesn't cause much destruction, and pain for people. Fingers crossed that we're looking at a fish storm. It's exciting to watch them blow up over water and away from land. It's not exciting when they come close to people.

[ROCK]

102

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_102l.gif

[blp]

Aric, I see what you are mentioning on radar. I think it may be reforming in that area and the old LLC we saw in the afternoon racing across the islands is being ejected and is now visible reaching 65W. If that is the case this thing is looking good.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?108

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_640.asp?product=tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1

[cheezyWXguy]

by 105 hours.. really starts losing it..

I didnt even know the gfs had 81, 93, or 105 hr displays on it... all ive ever seen is the generic 6 hr intervals on the ncep sight.

[Aric Dunn]

well according the gfs by 105hours.. there is again ridging near SC.. whatever is there or left over will likely be turn back wnw or if it goes more south of hispanola ( which is what seems likely atm ) then it will of course be more west

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon should be taking off in about ten minutes. It's always nice having real-time data.

[ROCK]

so to sum up this glorious GFS run that has data from RECON in it.... Emily will be nothing more than a rain maker for DR....my head is spinning from this run...