ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[HurricaneWarning92]

The tropics are fickle!

Is Emily getting rounder at the present moment in the satellite presentation?

It looks like it's going to blow. Of course this is just based on looks, and the NHC forecast is the real deal as conditions are forecast to be marginal for development. I wouldn't discount the risk of this one reaching Cat 1 or even 2 before getting to the DR however. Large systems take a while to get going, but once they get going they're harder to stop. Any of you seeing Emily looking nice and plump tonight?

who said its going to DR? .... fun times in the model thread...

Lol for real. just went there and seems like another westward shift on the next forecast track.

[Hylian Auree]

I feel so bad for the islands This reminds of what Tomas did to the ABC Islands... the apparent low circulation moves away from the quasi-stationary convective mass and it just blows up.

[SouthDadeFish]

Where is recon?

[nicole]

Ah hah! Here's an interesting tid-bit from the myfoxhurricane blog....


"It is interesting to note that most tropical systems that have formed within two degrees of Emily during August have moved towards Florida or into the Gulf. Very few have curved east of the state."

http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ily-forms/

[HurricaneWarning92]

I feel so bad for the islands This reminds of what Tomas did to the ABC Islands... the apparent low circulation moves away from the quasi-stationary convective mass and it just blows up.

Yep. Those are massive thunderstorms.

[FireRat]

The tropics are fickle!

Is Emily getting rounder at the present moment in the satellite presentation?

It looks like it's going to blow. Of course this is just based on looks, and the NHC forecast is the real deal as conditions are forecast to be marginal for development. I wouldn't discount the risk of this one reaching Cat 1 or even 2 before getting to the DR however. Large systems take a while to get going, but once they get going they're harder to stop. Any of you seeing Emily looking nice and plump tonight?

who said its going to DR? .... fun times in the model thread...

Dude that's nuts!
Well, I'll be more than happy if it misses Haiti.


.....nutty models

[nicole]

Ah hah! Here's an interesting tid-bit from the myfoxhurricane blog....


"It is interesting to note that most tropical systems that have formed within two degrees of Emily during August have moved towards Florida or into the Gulf. Very few have curved east of the state."

http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ily-forms/

[WxEnthus]

What a great comparison time, intensity, and track! Hope it doesn't repeat for selfish reasons!

I'm still reading a few pages back from the current discussion (trying to play catch up) but this is exactly the same unnamed storm that caught my eye when I looked at the historical tracks (great link Aric, I booked marked it when you mentioned it with Don I think). But if it keeps moving west or wsw for a while longer I was thinking it may look more like Dennis from '81, but that's a long shot guess.

[The preceding is just the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

[FireRat]

Anyone thinking an Ernesto 2006 track/intensity?

[CourierPR]

[quote="SouthFloridawx"]Did you guys check out the NAM?


Wow. The reincarnation of Cleo?

[HurricaneWarning92]

What a great comparison time, intensity, and track! Hope it doesn't repeat for selfish reasons!

I'm still reading a few pages back from the current discussion (trying to play catch up) but this is exactly the same unnamed storm that caught my eye when I looked at the historical tracks (great link Aric, I booked marked it when you mentioned it with Don I think). But if it keeps moving west or wsw for a while longer I was thinking it may look more like Dennis from '81, but that's a long shot guess.

[The preceding is just the opinion of the poster and is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.]

If that happens, it would stay in warm waters over a longer period of time, and that wouldnt be good if it heads to the GOM or Florida.

[Hylian Auree]

Yeah, just look at how the convection exploded to the south at around 4:00

Back on topic, I think in this case a low-level circulation reformation is very possible. The MLC is looking very healthy

[ROCK]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

Showing up at the 850 level...nothing special....central GOM...

[Annie Oakley]

Where is recon?

That's what I am wondering...are they late or is there an internet delay

[bamajammer4eva]

Ah hah! Here's an interesting tid-bit from the myfoxhurricane blog....


"It is interesting to note that most tropical systems that have formed within two degrees of Emily during August have moved towards Florida or into the Gulf. Very few have curved east of the state."

http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ily-forms/

10 tracks passing near Emily and one missed the US/Gulf. That leaves 9.

[SouthFloridawx]

Canadian is almost out. Still a westward motion.

[nicole]

Ah hah! Here's an interesting tid-bit from the myfoxhurricane blog....


"It is interesting to note that most tropical systems that have formed within two degrees of Emily during August have moved towards Florida or into the Gulf. Very few have curved east of the state."

http://blog.myfoxhurricane.com/index.ph ... ily-forms/

10 tracks passing near Emily and one missed the US/Gulf. That leaves 9.

Very nice info! Looks like GOM it is!!

[Cainer]

I can do the images for the recon tonight, if someone can tell me had to add the right image overlay in Google Earth!

[Annie Oakley]

Is this current?
000
URNT15 KNHC 020016
AF305 04EEA INVEST HDOB 49 20110802
000600 1639N 06218W 5054 05791 0298 -041 -060 069029 031 018 001 00
000630 1641N 06221W 5058 05785 0300 -048 -062 070027 029 013 001 00
000700 1642N 06223W 5061 05791 0299 -054 -059 072027 027 019 001 00
000730 1643N 06226W 5058 05789 0300 -051 -064 074027 028 020 001 00
000800 1644N 06229W 5059 05788 0301 -048 -066 073028 029 021 002 00
000830 1645N 06232W 5058 05787 0301 -047 -068 073030 030 024 002 00
000900 1646N 06234W 5058 05787 0301 -045 -069 075028 028 027 000 00
000930 1648N 06237W 5060 05785 0301 -045 -071 074027 027 027 003 00
001000 1649N 06240W 5059 05788 0301 -044 -076 073026 027 026 003 03
001030 1650N 06243W 5061 05785 0302 -049 -076 076026 026 020 000 00
001100 1651N 06245W 5058 05786 0301 -048 -072 074024 025 021 000 00
001130 1652N 06248W 5056 05792 0302 -049 -066 082024 025 022 001 00
001200 1654N 06251W 5059 05791 0302 -048 -068 075025 026 023 000 00
001230 1655N 06253W 5060 05791 0301 -049 -068 074024 025 023 000 00
001300 1656N 06256W 5058 05785 0300 -053 -065 083021 023 022 000 00
001330 1657N 06259W 5059 05784 0301 -054 -063 076025 026 024 000 00
001400 1658N 06302W 5060 05784 0302 -051 -062 072027 028 022 000 00
001430 1659N 06304W 5061 05782 0301 -050 -064 076024 025 024 000 00
001500 1659N 06304W 5061 05782 0302 -051 -068 077022 023 022 000 00
001530 1702N 06309W 5057 05792 0303 -055 -072 072020 021 024 001 00
$$
;

[Annie Oakley]

Or this
000
URNT15 KWBC 290158
NOAA2 0304A DON HDOB 37 20110729
015430 2742N 08239W 9593 00533 0186 +254 +207 085012 012 /// /// 03
015500 2743N 08238W 9585 00539 0185 +255 +209 089012 012 /// /// 03
015530 2744N 08237W 9613 00515 0187 +256 +210 095011 012 /// /// 03
015600 2745N 08236W 9603 00523 0186 +256 +211 089011 011 /// /// 03
015630 2746N 08235W 9635 00494 0186 +260 +213 093011 011 /// /// 03
015700 2747N 08234W 9798 00347 0188 +268 +216 081007 009 /// /// 03
015730 2748N 08234W 9901 00256 0189 +265 +224 036004 006 /// /// 03
015800 2749N 08233W 0045 00128 0188 +268 +240 102003 004 /// /// 03
015830 2750N 08232W 0180 00016 0195 +272 +244 034000 003 /// /// 03