ATL: EMILY - Remnants

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4221 Postby N2FSU » Tue Aug 02, 2011 5:51 am

As someone mentioned earlier, why does the NHC say they nudged the track to the left, when actually the track graphic shows an adjustment right?
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Re: Re:

#4222 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:01 am

knotimpaired wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Guadeloupe has just backoff the orange code cyclone to yellow code cyclone...meaning that the direct threat of Emily is over now :). For info, this morning between 0H30 AM and 1H30 AM our friend HUC :) from Basse-Terre... reports winds from SE and gusts near 90KM/H during a strong squall line.
Whereas the very rough sea and the tstorm activity continues in our area but hopefuflly on a decreasing trend. No reports of big damages in Guadeloupe only minor things like branchs, a few trees falling on the roads. Good news for us :) nothing too bad. We continue to keep an eye on the showers, the sea and the tstorm activity even if things should improve steadily :D.



Keep safe Gusty, let us know if you need anything. It appears as of now at least PR is going to be spared.

Thanks my friend, i appreciate really this intention. Hope you're ok too :) Yeah PR could be spare too that will be good news. We continue to be vigilant as numerous tstorms and big showers are doting the periphery of Emily.
For info, Meteo-France Martinica report 100 millimeters yesterday night in two areas: Robert Villarson and Trois îlets. In fact and for the looks like Martinica has gotten more amount of showers than Guadeloupe... but these numbers can evolved as the whole episode is not really finished (isolated squalls are spreading on Guadeloupe).
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#4223 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:02 am

Thanks to all my friend in the Carib and from :flag: too :)
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#4224 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:05 am

02/0545 UTC 15.2N 62.2W T2.5/2.5 EMILY
01/2345 UTC 15.7N 61.8W T2.5/2.5 EMILY
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4225 Postby GCANE » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:06 am

Looking a bit at the Dvorak loop, it appears to me that the strong convection ESE of the LLC could be associated with a strong PV anomaly centered somewhere around 700mb perhaps.

Microwave also confirms that the strongest cells are well SE of the LLC.

Decoupling of the LLC from the mid-level circulation could be a possibility down the road.


http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL052011&starting_image=2011AL05_4KMSRBDC_201108020315.jpg

850mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

700mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

500mb
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


Image
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon

#4226 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:08 am

Observation 3

URNT15 KNHC 021029
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 03 20110802
101430 1734N 06419W 6947 03212 //// +092 //// 083034 034 /// /// 05
101500 1733N 06418W 6946 03212 //// +095 //// 085034 034 /// /// 05
101530 1733N 06416W 6946 03217 //// +093 //// 084032 033 /// /// 05
101600 1732N 06415W 6947 03215 //// +093 //// 082032 032 /// /// 05
101630 1731N 06413W 6946 03213 //// +093 //// 080031 031 /// /// 05
101700 1730N 06412W 6946 03214 //// +098 //// 077031 032 /// /// 05
101730 1730N 06410W 6947 03211 //// +097 //// 077033 033 /// /// 05
101800 1729N 06409W 6946 03215 //// +094 //// 081031 032 /// /// 05
101830 1728N 06408W 6947 03211 //// +094 //// 080029 030 /// /// 05
101900 1728N 06406W 6946 03214 //// +091 //// 077028 029 /// /// 05
101930 1727N 06405W 6948 03210 //// +089 //// 078030 031 /// /// 05
102000 1726N 06403W 6946 03211 //// +093 //// 077030 030 /// /// 05
102030 1725N 06402W 6949 03209 //// +092 //// 078029 029 /// /// 05
102100 1725N 06400W 6946 03210 //// +090 //// 081028 029 /// /// 05
102130 1724N 06359W 6945 03213 //// +090 //// 082029 030 /// /// 05
102200 1723N 06357W 6947 03208 //// +092 //// 083028 029 /// /// 05
102230 1723N 06356W 6946 03211 //// +090 //// 087030 031 /// /// 05
102300 1722N 06354W 6946 03211 //// +090 //// 085030 031 /// /// 05
102330 1721N 06353W 6947 03206 //// +090 //// 079031 031 /// /// 05
102400 1720N 06351W 6946 03206 //// +090 //// 081029 030 /// /// 05
$$
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Re:

#4227 Postby chrisjslucia » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:09 am

Gustywind wrote:Thanks to all my friend in the Carib and from :flag: too :)


Hi Gusty, wet, wet, wet here. Any news from Martinique? Looks as if they were centre stage last night.
Chris
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4228 Postby Blown Away » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:11 am

The 5am track now skims the S coast of Hispaniola instead of down the spine. Typically westward moving storms passing through the Windward Passage don't have enough room to recurve w/o affecting Florida. IMO, I think we will see the track begin to bend back over Florida as Emily continues to move westward in the short term.
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#4229 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:12 am

Can't really get much closer to a landfall then that HWRF run.

Models seem to offer many different solutions for how this system will evolve. What is worth noting is the models are still slowly adjusting westwards before Hispaniola.
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Re: Re:

#4230 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:13 am

chrisjslucia wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Thanks to all my friend in the Carib and from :flag: too :)


Hi Gusty, wet, wet, wet here. Any news from Martinique? Looks as if they were centre stage last night.
Chris


We are getting bands this morning with heavy rain and gusty winds as the northern perifery bands move thru. I will post later at the Caribbean thread more obseervations.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon

#4231 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:14 am

Observation 4

URNT15 KNHC 021034
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 04 20110802
102430 1720N 06350W 6949 03204 //// +090 //// 087026 027 /// /// 05
102500 1719N 06348W 6946 03209 //// +089 //// 088027 027 /// /// 05
102530 1718N 06347W 6946 03209 //// +093 //// 088026 026 /// /// 05
102600 1717N 06345W 7077 03054 //// +101 //// 091029 030 /// /// 05
102630 1717N 06345W 7077 03054 //// +101 //// 091029 030 /// /// 05
102700 1717N 06345W 7077 03054 //// +101 //// 091029 030 /// /// 05
102730 1717N 06345W 7077 03054 //// +112 //// 095030 032 /// /// 05
102800 1715N 06340W 7735 02302 //// +134 //// 099033 034 /// /// 05
102830 1714N 06339W 7944 02088 //// +150 //// 098034 035 /// /// 05
102900 1713N 06337W 8157 01860 //// +160 //// 098035 036 /// /// 05
102930 1713N 06336W 8367 01640 //// +162 //// 100035 035 /// /// 05
103000 1712N 06335W 8471 01535 //// +171 //// 099033 034 /// /// 05
103030 1712N 06334W 8697 01307 //// +182 //// 099033 035 /// /// 05
103100 1711N 06332W 8916 01109 //// +191 //// 095038 039 /// /// 05
103130 1710N 06331W 9148 00874 //// +198 //// 092040 041 /// /// 05
103200 1710N 06330W 9384 00646 //// +208 //// 088035 036 /// /// 05
103230 1709N 06329W 9623 00422 //// +224 //// 087031 032 /// /// 05
103300 1709N 06328W 9741 00312 //// +234 //// 086030 032 /// /// 05
103330 1708N 06326W 9775 00279 //// +239 //// 086031 033 /// /// 05
103400 1707N 06325W 9772 00281 //// +240 //// 084033 034 /// /// 05
$$
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#4232 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:15 am

Low level flow still faster then the uypper flow I see and the LLC is constantly moving away from the convection.

This is probably suggestive that the system will get further west then expected, though it also does raise the chance of decoupling as has been said.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon

#4233 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:15 am

Observation 5

URNT15 KNHC 021044
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 05 20110802
103430 1707N 06324W 9773 00282 //// +239 //// 086033 034 /// /// 05
103500 1706N 06323W 9773 00281 //// +239 //// 089034 035 /// /// 05
103530 1706N 06321W 9770 00284 //// +237 //// 090032 033 /// /// 05
103600 1705N 06320W 9774 00279 //// +238 //// 091031 032 /// /// 05
103630 1704N 06321W 9765 00289 //// +238 //// 086032 034 /// /// 05
103700 1702N 06323W 9774 00279 //// +240 //// 086035 036 /// /// 05
103730 1701N 06324W 9769 00284 //// +240 //// 085033 035 /// /// 05
103800 1700N 06325W 9772 00281 //// +240 //// 085034 035 /// /// 05
103830 1659N 06327W 9770 00284 //// +240 //// 084035 036 036 002 05
103900 1658N 06328W 9767 00285 //// +240 //// 081034 035 037 003 05
103930 1656N 06329W 9774 00278 //// +240 //// 080034 034 034 002 01
104000 1655N 06331W 9772 00281 //// +240 //// 080033 034 036 000 01
104030 1654N 06332W 9772 00280 //// +240 //// 082034 035 036 002 05
104100 1653N 06333W 9766 00284 //// +240 //// 078033 034 035 004 01
104130 1653N 06333W 9766 00284 //// +240 //// 079033 035 034 002 05
104200 1653N 06333W 9766 00284 //// +240 //// 078033 035 034 003 05
104230 1649N 06337W 9771 00281 //// +240 //// 078031 033 /// /// 05
104300 1648N 06339W 9772 00279 //// +240 //// 076032 033 /// /// 05
104330 1646N 06340W 9770 00280 //// +242 //// 079030 031 /// /// 05
104400 1645N 06341W 9773 00278 //// +245 //// 081032 032 /// /// 05
$$
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon

#4234 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:15 am

Observation 6

URNT15 KNHC 021054
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 06 20110802
104430 1644N 06343W 9769 00280 //// +242 //// 080031 033 032 002 05
104500 1643N 06344W 9770 00281 //// +242 //// 081029 030 033 002 01
104530 1641N 06345W 9766 00283 //// +242 //// 078030 032 034 002 01
104600 1640N 06347W 9774 00274 //// +245 //// 078030 031 032 002 01
104630 1639N 06348W 9770 00278 //// +240 //// 075030 031 035 004 01
104700 1638N 06349W 9774 00275 //// +245 //// 073031 032 033 002 01
104730 1636N 06351W 9778 00271 //// +245 //// 072030 031 034 002 01
104800 1635N 06352W 9773 00275 //// +245 //// 070031 031 034 001 01
104830 1634N 06353W 9765 00284 //// +245 //// 070029 030 033 003 05
104900 1632N 06354W 9773 00276 //// +245 //// 070028 029 031 002 01
104930 1631N 06355W 9769 00277 //// +245 //// 069027 027 031 001 05
105000 1629N 06355W 9770 00277 //// +245 //// 067028 028 032 000 01
105030 1628N 06356W 9766 00281 //// +245 //// 067027 028 031 001 01
105100 1626N 06357W 9774 00273 //// +245 //// 066028 029 032 001 01
105130 1625N 06358W 9771 00276 //// +243 //// 066028 029 033 003 01
105200 1623N 06359W 9771 00275 //// +242 //// 066027 027 033 001 05
105230 1622N 06359W 9774 00274 //// +243 //// 069028 029 034 000 01
105300 1620N 06400W 9760 00286 //// +229 //// 070026 027 035 006 05
105330 1619N 06401W 9764 00281 //// +219 //// 066028 029 041 005 05
105400 1617N 06402W 9778 00269 //// +233 //// 070028 030 034 001 01
$$
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon

#4235 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:16 am

Observation 7

URNT15 KNHC 021104
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 07 20110802
105430 1615N 06402W 9767 00280 //// +239 //// 062023 024 030 001 01
105500 1614N 06403W 9767 00279 //// +241 //// 063024 024 028 002 01
105530 1612N 06403W 9770 00276 //// +240 //// 066023 025 027 002 05
105600 1611N 06403W 9771 00275 //// +241 //// 065022 023 029 000 01
105630 1609N 06403W 9771 00275 //// +240 //// 061021 022 027 002 05
105700 1607N 06402W 9771 00274 //// +240 //// 059021 021 027 002 01
105730 1606N 06402W 9769 00275 //// +240 //// 057020 021 028 001 05
105800 1604N 06401W 9768 00277 //// +240 //// 056020 021 030 000 05
105830 1603N 06400W 9771 00273 //// +240 //// 056020 021 028 001 01
105900 1602N 06359W 9770 00273 //// +240 //// 057020 021 030 001 01
105930 1601N 06358W 9772 00271 //// +240 //// 055020 020 028 001 05
110000 1600N 06357W 9763 00279 //// +236 //// 064016 019 023 002 01
110030 1558N 06356W 9777 00265 //// +227 //// 061018 020 029 002 05
110100 1557N 06356W 9768 00273 //// +235 //// 057022 022 025 001 01
110130 1555N 06355W 9769 00270 //// +230 //// 054020 023 026 002 01
110200 1554N 06354W 9768 00272 //// +228 //// 048015 016 025 001 05
110230 1553N 06353W 9776 00264 //// +235 //// 053015 016 024 001 01
110300 1551N 06353W 9770 00269 //// +235 //// 056014 015 023 001 01
110330 1550N 06352W 9766 00272 //// +235 //// 051014 015 024 002 01
110400 1549N 06351W 9778 00261 //// +239 //// 056014 014 025 001 01
$$
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Re: Re:

#4236 Postby Gustywind » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:17 am

chrisjslucia wrote:
Gustywind wrote:Thanks to all my friend in the Carib and from :flag: too :)


Hi Gusty, wet, wet, wet here. Any news from Martinique? Looks as if they were centre stage last night.
Chris

OK thanks for your report.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon

#4237 Postby Bad_Hurricane » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:18 am

Observation 8

URNT15 KNHC 021114
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 08 20110802
110430 1548N 06350W 9768 00269 //// +236 //// 056015 015 023 001 01
110500 1546N 06349W 9768 00270 //// +237 //// 059015 015 023 001 01
110530 1545N 06348W 9776 00262 //// +235 //// 059014 016 022 002 01
110600 1544N 06347W 9772 00265 //// +235 //// 057014 015 021 001 01
110630 1542N 06346W 9768 00270 //// +235 //// 057014 015 022 001 01
110700 1541N 06345W 9771 00267 //// +235 //// 056014 014 021 002 01
110730 1540N 06345W 9773 00264 //// +238 //// 054013 014 023 000 01
110800 1539N 06344W 9770 00267 //// +239 //// 057011 012 021 002 01
110830 1537N 06343W 9765 00271 //// +240 //// 054011 011 019 002 01
110900 1536N 06342W 9776 00261 //// +240 //// 050010 011 020 000 01
110930 1535N 06341W 9767 00269 //// +240 //// 043009 009 021 001 05
111000 1534N 06340W 9767 00270 //// +240 //// 054008 008 019 003 05
111030 1534N 06340W 9767 00270 //// +240 //// 053008 008 020 000 01
111100 1531N 06338W 9769 00267 //// +240 //// 052008 008 020 000 01
111130 1530N 06337W 9772 00265 //// +240 //// 052007 008 019 000 01
111200 1529N 06336W 9773 00264 //// +240 //// 048007 007 019 000 05
111230 1527N 06335W 9769 00268 //// +240 //// 054006 007 018 001 01
111300 1526N 06334W 9770 00269 //// +240 //// 050006 006 020 000 05
111330 1525N 06333W 9765 00272 //// +240 //// 037005 006 019 000 01
111400 1524N 06332W 9765 00273 //// +240 //// 043005 005 017 002 01
$$
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4238 Postby USTropics » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:18 am

N2FSU wrote:As someone mentioned earlier, why does the NHC say they nudged the track to the left, when actually the track graphic shows an adjustment right?


I believe they were referring to the short term track of Emily. It appears they shifted the 3 day track more to the left with landfall more in western Haiti then the previous forecast of splitting the DR and Haiti, with a sharper turn to the north afterwards.

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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#4239 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:22 am

Blown Away wrote:The 5am track now skims the S coast of Hispaniola instead of down the spine. Typically westward moving storms passing through the Windward Passage don't have enough room to recurve w/o affecting Florida. IMO, I think we will see the track begin to bend back over Florida as Emily continues to move westward in the short term.

through the keys or straits and to the gulf she goes, assuming survival
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#4240 Postby KWT » Tue Aug 02, 2011 6:23 am

Wouldn't take mkuch of a westweard shift for the system to totally miss Hispaniola and hit Cuba instead.

Heading due west for now...
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