ATL: EMILY - Remnants

[N2FSU]

Ah, I see it now USTropics. Good catch! Thanks!

[Blown Away]

The 5am track now skims the S coast of Hispaniola instead of down the spine. Typically westward moving storms passing through the Windward Passage don't have enough room to recurve w/o affecting Florida. IMO, I think we will see the track begin to bend back over Florida as Emily continues to move westward in the short term.

through the keys or straits and to the gulf she goes, assuming survival

Not sold on the hard recurve, I agree w/ you, a general bend brings Emily through Straits/Keys into EGOM as a TS mess, IMO.

[GCANE]

00Z GFS to me is showing an initialization further east than the current LLC; more in line where the possible mid-level circulation is.

[Bad_Hurricane]

Observation 9

URNT15 KNHC 021124
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 09 20110802
111430 1523N 06331W 9782 00256 //// +240 //// 038005 005 017 002 01
111500 1521N 06330W 9764 00273 //// +240 //// 039003 003 016 001 01
111530 1520N 06329W 9767 00270 //// +240 //// 072002 003 018 000 01
111600 1519N 06328W 9772 00265 //// +240 //// 110002 002 016 001 01
111630 1518N 06327W 9775 00263 //// +240 //// 159002 002 015 003 05
111700 1517N 06326W 9773 00265 //// +240 //// 174003 003 015 005 01
111730 1515N 06325W 9765 00272 //// +240 //// 172004 005 019 003 01
111800 1514N 06324W 9772 00266 //// +240 //// 169004 005 021 002 01
111830 1513N 06323W 9774 00264 //// +239 //// 172006 007 021 005 01
111900 1512N 06322W 9769 00269 //// +235 //// 179010 011 022 005 01
111930 1511N 06321W 9768 00271 //// +235 //// 183010 011 021 005 01
112000 1511N 06321W 9768 00271 //// +235 //// 186011 011 025 004 01
112030 1509N 06318W 9772 00266 //// +232 //// 180011 012 023 007 01
112100 1508N 06317W 9773 00266 //// +234 //// 184011 011 026 006 01
112130 1507N 06316W 9768 00271 //// +234 //// 193010 011 026 006 01
112200 1506N 06315W 9773 00266 //// +235 //// 193011 011 029 008 01
112230 1505N 06314W 9770 00270 //// +235 //// 193014 016 028 008 01
112300 1504N 06313W 9768 00271 //// +235 //// 192015 015 028 007 01
112330 1503N 06312W 9772 00268 //// +239 //// 195017 017 025 007 01
112400 1502N 06310W 9769 00270 //// +239 //// 196018 018 027 005 01
$$
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[KWT]

Probably why the GFS loses it, seems like the models have been utterly fixated on dedveloping the MLC's of this system but I doubt its going to evolve like that now we have a weak LLC present.

Upper flow seems to have hit something of a wall, probably about to change steering currents and gain latitude...whether or not thats the case with the lower levels though I'm not sure yet.

[crownweather]

This mornings discussion of Emily by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

This discussion confuses me even more because it really goes from one extreme to the other.....mentions a possible decoupling to a possible hurricane and leaves the reader wondering. I guess what this teaches me is to be prepared for all scenarios.

I'm leaning more towards the decoupling scenario rather than it becoming a hurricane; I just wanted to give one remote possibility in the event that it happens. Overall forecast is quite uncertain this morning.

[RL3AO]

Recon shows the center (or a center) a good distance east of the NHC position.

[crownweather]

This mornings discussion of Emily by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

This discussion confuses me even more because it really goes from one extreme to the other.....mentions a possible decoupling to a possible hurricane and leaves the reader wondering. I guess what this teaches me is to be prepared for all scenarios.

I'm leaning more towards the decoupling scenario rather than it becoming a hurricane; I just wanted to give one remote possibility in the event that it happens. Overall forecast is quite uncertain this morning.

[crownweather]

This mornings discussion of Emily by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

This discussion confuses me even more because it really goes from one extreme to the other.....mentions a possible decoupling to a possible hurricane and leaves the reader wondering. I guess what this teaches me is to be prepared for all scenarios.

I'm leaning more towards the decoupling scenario rather than it becoming a hurricane; I just wanted to give one remote possibility in the event that it happens. Overall forecast is quite uncertain this morning.

[crownweather]

This mornings discussion of Emily by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

This discussion confuses me even more because it really goes from one extreme to the other.....mentions a possible decoupling to a possible hurricane and leaves the reader wondering. I guess what this teaches me is to be prepared for all scenarios.

I'm leaning more towards the decoupling scenario rather than it becoming a hurricane; I just wanted to give one remote possibility in the event that it happens. Overall forecast is quite uncertain this morning.

[KWT]

Recon shows the center (or a center) a good distance east of the NHC position.

Hmmm that would be interesting...would suggest the system is actually fairly well stacked...

[SFLcane]

06z models...Red model is consensus

[KWT]

Will probably lead to the NHC next forecast shifting a little to the left...

[Gustywind]

Latest from Meteo-France Guadeloupe
rarrow: http://www.microsofttranslator.com/bv.a ... h_guad.php

The time for the next few hours on the Guadeloupe

06 H 45 AM the level of vigilance is: cyclonic yellow.
The storm tropical Emily crossed yesterday evening the Lesser Antilles and continues its Caribbean road at 25km/h. It continues to generate a few stormy showers on Basse-Terre and les Saintes. Guadeloupe and its nearby islands have been spared by the strongs rains. Increasing wind have been observed, with an average speed of approximately 60 km/h and gusts of 100 km/h. Waves have reached 3 meters 60 with a maxima at 6 meters.
Over the next 3 hours, the sky is covered and the risk of heavy showers and thunderstorms continues behind the storm. Gusts of wind continues to blow on the Department.
These observations and immediate changes will be updated to 09 h 45.

[crownweather]

This mornings discussion of Emily by Rob of Crown Weather.

http://www.crownweather.com/?page_id=4557

This discussion confuses me even more because it really goes from one extreme to the other.....mentions a possible decoupling to a possible hurricane and leaves the reader wondering. I guess what this teaches me is to be prepared for all scenarios.

I'm leaning more towards the decoupling scenario rather than it becoming a hurricane; I just wanted to give one remote possibility in the event that it happens. Overall forecast is quite uncertain this morning.

Sorry for the duplicate postings. TapaTalk indicated it wasn't posting while apparently it was.

[SFLcane]

Will probably lead to the NHC next forecast shifting a little to the left...

Also notice minimal land interaction if that track comes to pass...VERY tricky intensity/track forecast.

[KWT]

It will be interesting to see if this survives actually in the longer term, I know Frank made a point about Erica in 2009, also maybe it'll end up like Earl from 2004...

Who knows though!

[KWT]

Yep, even more tricky when it comes to quite a messy upper atmospheric conditions which probably favour reformations of the LLC and maybe even decouplings occuring...

[knotimpaired]

Recon shows the center (or a center) a good distance east of the NHC position.

Are you suggesting that possibly this may come closer to PR than the NHC cone?

[KWT]

000
URNT15 KNHC 021134
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 10 20110802
112430 1501N 06309W 9773 00267 //// +235 //// 192020 021 031 004 01
112500 1500N 06308W 9774 00264 //// +224 //// 186022 022 034 006 01
112530 1459N 06307W 9766 00272 //// +237 //// 183022 022 031 006 01
112600 1458N 06306W 9772 00266 //// +239 //// 180023 024 032 006 01
112630 1457N 06305W 9771 00268 //// +240 //// 177023 023 032 007 01
112700 1456N 06304W 9768 00271 //// +238 //// 175022 022 031 007 01
112730 1455N 06303W 9769 00270 //// +237 //// 176022 022 031 006 01
112800 1454N 06302W 9773 00269 //// +229 //// 175024 024 037 010 01
112830 1453N 06301W 9768 00272 //// +221 //// 170023 024 037 012 01
112900 1452N 06300W 9779 00264 //// +233 //// 162025 026 034 012 01
112930 1451N 06258W 9766 00276 //// +232 //// 158025 027 037 010 01
113000 1450N 06257W 9772 00269 //// +222 //// 159026 027 042 011 01
113030 1449N 06256W 9770 00272 //// +219 //// 155027 028 049 012 01
113100 1449N 06255W 9772 00272 //// +226 //// 162026 026 039 013 01
113130 1448N 06254W 9768 00276 //// +236 //// 159025 025 033 011 01
113200 1447N 06253W 9770 00275 //// +238 //// 157025 026 035 007 01
113230 1446N 06252W 9769 00276 //// +237 //// 159024 024 034 008 01
113300 1445N 06251W 9770 00276 //// +239 //// 159023 024 036 007 05
113330 1444N 06251W 9767 00279 //// +238 //// 157022 023 034 008 01
113400 1442N 06250W 9770 00276 //// +238 //// 162022 022 033 007 01
$$
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