ATL: EMILY - Remnants
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If that is the true center fix then yeah it does seem to have slowed down somewhat NDG...though worth noting the NHC may have been slightly off with thier forecasted position of the center anyway, which would account for the appearence of a slowdown.
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LAST set from me:
000
URNT15 KNHC 021154
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 12 20110802
114430 1438N 06238W 9772 00278 //// +230 //// 137020 020 029 004 01
114500 1439N 06238W 9771 00278 //// +230 //// 133022 022 026 007 01
114530 1441N 06239W 9771 00279 //// +230 //// 133024 025 030 004 01
114600 1443N 06239W 9769 00279 //// +232 //// 134025 025 030 005 01
114630 1444N 06239W 9771 00277 //// +230 //// 136025 025 030 005 01
114700 1446N 06239W 9769 00279 //// +231 //// 138026 026 030 005 01
114730 1448N 06239W 9768 00279 //// +230 //// 136027 028 033 002 05
114800 1449N 06240W 9773 00277 //// +230 //// 134027 028 031 003 01
114830 1451N 06240W 9772 00276 //// +230 //// 131028 029 030 004 01
114900 1453N 06240W 9771 00278 //// +230 //// 132030 030 032 003 01
114930 1455N 06240W 9770 00278 //// +230 //// 132029 030 033 002 01
115000 1456N 06240W 9772 00276 //// +230 //// 131029 030 032 003 01
115030 1458N 06241W 9773 00274 //// +229 //// 132030 031 031 003 01
115100 1500N 06241W 9769 00278 //// +229 //// 131031 032 031 004 01
115130 1501N 06241W 9770 00276 //// +230 //// 130032 033 033 002 01
115200 1503N 06241W 9772 00273 //// +230 //// 129033 035 034 001 01
115230 1505N 06242W 9769 00275 //// +230 //// 127035 035 035 000 01
115300 1507N 06242W 9771 00272 //// +230 //// 127034 034 034 002 01
115330 1508N 06242W 9773 00270 //// +230 //// 127035 036 036 002 01
115400 1510N 06242W 9770 00274 //// +230 //// 126035 035 036 002 01
$$
;
000
URNT15 KNHC 021154
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 12 20110802
114430 1438N 06238W 9772 00278 //// +230 //// 137020 020 029 004 01
114500 1439N 06238W 9771 00278 //// +230 //// 133022 022 026 007 01
114530 1441N 06239W 9771 00279 //// +230 //// 133024 025 030 004 01
114600 1443N 06239W 9769 00279 //// +232 //// 134025 025 030 005 01
114630 1444N 06239W 9771 00277 //// +230 //// 136025 025 030 005 01
114700 1446N 06239W 9769 00279 //// +231 //// 138026 026 030 005 01
114730 1448N 06239W 9768 00279 //// +230 //// 136027 028 033 002 05
114800 1449N 06240W 9773 00277 //// +230 //// 134027 028 031 003 01
114830 1451N 06240W 9772 00276 //// +230 //// 131028 029 030 004 01
114900 1453N 06240W 9771 00278 //// +230 //// 132030 030 032 003 01
114930 1455N 06240W 9770 00278 //// +230 //// 132029 030 033 002 01
115000 1456N 06240W 9772 00276 //// +230 //// 131029 030 032 003 01
115030 1458N 06241W 9773 00274 //// +229 //// 132030 031 031 003 01
115100 1500N 06241W 9769 00278 //// +229 //// 131031 032 031 004 01
115130 1501N 06241W 9770 00276 //// +230 //// 130032 033 033 002 01
115200 1503N 06241W 9772 00273 //// +230 //// 129033 035 034 001 01
115230 1505N 06242W 9769 00275 //// +230 //// 127035 035 035 000 01
115300 1507N 06242W 9771 00272 //// +230 //// 127034 034 034 002 01
115330 1508N 06242W 9773 00270 //// +230 //// 127035 036 036 002 01
115400 1510N 06242W 9770 00274 //// +230 //// 126035 035 036 002 01
$$
;
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SouthFloridawx wrote:How about a trend towards the west and reformation of the center eventually to the south?
What implications would a reformation to the south do to its eventual track?
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Re:
NDG wrote:Based on my estimates from where the recon found Emily this morning and when she was last fixed on her location last night before the recon left, she has only been moving W at around 11-12 mph.
Or she reformed closer to the deep convection during the night.
I could tell that initially the recon was going to sample the area where the NHC has been tracking during the night as her COC but quickly took a left turn when they realized that her COC has not past 64W but closer to 63W.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
What are the chances (in someone's opinion) that this storm will dissipate? 

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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon Discussion
Who wants to continue the posting of the data?
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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id think then if it is slowing down, then it shouldnt decouple.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking at mimic it is definitely ingesting dry air.
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- Evil Jeremy
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Re:
NDG wrote:Based on my estimates from where the recon found Emily this morning and when she was last fixed on her location last night before the recon left, she has only been moving W at around 11-12 mph.
Maybe the lower level flow is slowing down as well. That MLC is pretty vigorous - gotta wonder if the LLC will end up dissipating and the MLC works it way down to the surface eventually?
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
sunnyday wrote:What are the chances (in someone's opinion) that this storm will dissipate?
Whilst I don't think thats the solution in the short term, if its injesting dry air, if there is still a mismatch between the mid/lower level wind speeds and if it takes the track right voer the heart of Hispaniola..then the total death of this system is certainly an option.
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I think we will get better solutions and an idea where this will go once it begins a true turn toward the WNW. This ridge to its north looks to be weakening and I believe the solutions taking this over Haiti or just to its west are accurate. From there all will depend on how far west and strong the ridge comes back as to whether a miss to the east of Florida, a strike on Florida or over into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. With the pattern we've seen this summer from the ridging I give more credence to a Florida Landfall or a trip over into the Gulf of Mexico. I just don't see this staying poleward and against the ridge as much after crossing Hispaniola/Haiti or eastern Cuba.
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- Gustywind
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Looks like Martinica has dealt with a storm given a correspondant...
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/martinique.shtml
- Martinique : Huge storm just passed over
•By Virek <matthew at virek.net>
•Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 05:36:31 -0400
Well, good morning to all.
We've just had a huge storm pass over. Lots of rain, lightning and thunder.
It started about 3 ish this morning. Things have abated now but there is still
a lot of rain. I'll wait to get reports of just how much and post later.
Here's the loop form Martinique radar, looks like we got the worst of it !
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
It's certain that the decision to push back by 2 days Martinique's biggest
sporting event of the year, the Tour des Yoles Rondes, was a wise one.
http://www.tourdesyoles.com. Don't worry if you don't read french, use google
translator or something similar. The boats are unique in the world and its a
great spectator sport.... or better still, come to Martinique and organise an
outing on a yole you won't regret it believe me ! Look in a local tourist
guide for a group that takes the public out.
As one correspondent said, its a nice dry-run for a real hurricane. Check your
provisions, fill the bath with water, candles, shutters... you know the score.
Fingers crossed, my drainage system I put it Sat/Sun has help up.
Matthew

- Martinique : Huge storm just passed over
•By Virek <matthew at virek.net>
•Date: Tue, 2 Aug 2011 05:36:31 -0400
Well, good morning to all.
We've just had a huge storm pass over. Lots of rain, lightning and thunder.
It started about 3 ish this morning. Things have abated now but there is still
a lot of rain. I'll wait to get reports of just how much and post later.
Here's the loop form Martinique radar, looks like we got the worst of it !
http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html
It's certain that the decision to push back by 2 days Martinique's biggest
sporting event of the year, the Tour des Yoles Rondes, was a wise one.
http://www.tourdesyoles.com. Don't worry if you don't read french, use google
translator or something similar. The boats are unique in the world and its a
great spectator sport.... or better still, come to Martinique and organise an
outing on a yole you won't regret it believe me ! Look in a local tourist
guide for a group that takes the public out.
As one correspondent said, its a nice dry-run for a real hurricane. Check your
provisions, fill the bath with water, candles, shutters... you know the score.
Fingers crossed, my drainage system I put it Sat/Sun has help up.
Matthew
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Recon
URNT15 KNHC 021204
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 13 20110802
115430 1512N 06242W 9773 00272 //// +230 //// 127035 036 035 003 01
115500 1514N 06243W 9765 00279 //// +230 //// 126035 036 035 003 01
115530 1515N 06243W 9772 00272 //// +230 //// 125034 035 034 001 01
115600 1517N 06243W 9771 00275 //// +230 //// 125034 035 034 002 01
115630 1519N 06243W 9768 00276 //// +230 //// 125034 035 033 000 01
115700 1520N 06244W 9770 00275 //// +230 //// 123033 034 032 001 01
115730 1522N 06244W 9769 00276 //// +230 //// 124034 034 032 002 01
115800 1524N 06244W 9773 00273 //// +230 //// 125034 035 034 000 01
115830 1526N 06244W 9772 00274 //// +230 //// 124033 033 034 002 01
115900 1527N 06244W 9770 00276 //// +230 //// 123034 035 035 001 01
115930 1529N 06245W 9769 00278 //// +230 //// 124034 035 034 001 05
120000 1531N 06245W 9768 00278 //// +232 //// 125033 033 033 003 01
120030 1532N 06245W 9770 00277 //// +234 //// 126034 035 035 000 01
120100 1534N 06245W 9772 00275 //// +233 //// 125034 034 033 002 05
120130 1536N 06245W 9770 00277 //// +232 //// 123034 034 034 002 01
120200 1538N 06246W 9773 00275 //// +232 //// 119033 034 034 000 01
120230 1539N 06246W 9772 00276 //// +233 //// 121033 034 033 001 05
120300 1541N 06246W 9770 00279 //// +234 //// 121032 033 033 000 01
120330 1543N 06246W 9770 00279 //// +234 //// 119033 033 034 002 01
120400 1544N 06247W 9774 00275 //// +235 //// 118033 034 033 002 05
$$
;
AF305 0505A EMILY HDOB 13 20110802
115430 1512N 06242W 9773 00272 //// +230 //// 127035 036 035 003 01
115500 1514N 06243W 9765 00279 //// +230 //// 126035 036 035 003 01
115530 1515N 06243W 9772 00272 //// +230 //// 125034 035 034 001 01
115600 1517N 06243W 9771 00275 //// +230 //// 125034 035 034 002 01
115630 1519N 06243W 9768 00276 //// +230 //// 125034 035 033 000 01
115700 1520N 06244W 9770 00275 //// +230 //// 123033 034 032 001 01
115730 1522N 06244W 9769 00276 //// +230 //// 124034 034 032 002 01
115800 1524N 06244W 9773 00273 //// +230 //// 125034 035 034 000 01
115830 1526N 06244W 9772 00274 //// +230 //// 124033 033 034 002 01
115900 1527N 06244W 9770 00276 //// +230 //// 123034 035 035 001 01
115930 1529N 06245W 9769 00278 //// +230 //// 124034 035 034 001 05
120000 1531N 06245W 9768 00278 //// +232 //// 125033 033 033 003 01
120030 1532N 06245W 9770 00277 //// +234 //// 126034 035 035 000 01
120100 1534N 06245W 9772 00275 //// +233 //// 125034 034 033 002 05
120130 1536N 06245W 9770 00277 //// +232 //// 123034 034 034 002 01
120200 1538N 06246W 9773 00275 //// +232 //// 119033 034 034 000 01
120230 1539N 06246W 9772 00276 //// +233 //// 121033 034 033 001 05
120300 1541N 06246W 9770 00279 //// +234 //// 121032 033 033 000 01
120330 1543N 06246W 9770 00279 //// +234 //// 119033 033 034 002 01
120400 1544N 06247W 9774 00275 //// +235 //// 118033 034 033 002 05
$$
;
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Re: Re:
jhpigott wrote:NDG wrote:Based on my estimates from where the recon found Emily this morning and when she was last fixed on her location last night before the recon left, she has only been moving W at around 11-12 mph.
Maybe the lower level flow is slowing down as well. That MLC is pretty vigorous - gotta wonder if the LLC will end up dissipating and the MLC works it way down to the surface eventually?
That's what's got me looking at mimic. Check out the overall movement and spin of this system.

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That GFDL isn't all that uynreasoanble, it certainly appears to have a decent grip on the systems intial strength and suggests only slight strengthening till landfall.
Forecast is still for a fairly decent system in the N.Bahamas though...
Forecast is still for a fairly decent system in the N.Bahamas though...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I think reformation is a distinct possibility.
It will most likely be somewhere close to the heavy circulation depicted on WV ~15N 61.5W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The overshooting top at 15.5N 62.5W will add to latent heating and possibly push down the circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
Need to watch if more OTs shoot farther east or if a hot-tower fires up there.
It will most likely be somewhere close to the heavy circulation depicted on WV ~15N 61.5W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-wv.html
The overshooting top at 15.5N 62.5W will add to latent heating and possibly push down the circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html
Need to watch if more OTs shoot farther east or if a hot-tower fires up there.
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SouthFloridawx wrote:Do you think it could be downgraded to a depression?
no center=wave
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- JtSmarts
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Re: ATL: EMILY - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Some JB Tweets
5 Minutes Ago
22 Minutes Ago
5 Minutes Ago
http://t.co/2ttafcQ Look at that loop! This is starting to get its act together. Could be hurricane by Hispaniola
22 Minutes Ago
Bingo.. recon came in 15.3, 63.4 not moving as fast,, should start to intensify!
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